Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production

[dpeilow]

I'm expecting to get some good use out of my Ampera before a G3 purchase is on the horizon...

 

[scottf200]

I thought I'd start a thread where we can start capturing the rumors and facts regarding Model X dates. From today's SEC Form 10-K / Annual Report (emphasis mine):

We are adapting the platform architecture of the Model S to develop our Model X crossover. We revealed a prototype of Model X in
February 2012 and plan to begin production in late 2014./QUOTE]

InsideEVs picked up on that too:

http://insideevs.com/tesla-delays-model-x-production-to-late-2014/

 

[vfx]

This was cool.
The Secret World of Printing Concept Cars in 3-D | Autopia | Wired.com

 

[tdelta1000]

Hey Bonnie...great thread. This thread falls right in line with the thread I posted several months ago. Model-X-metal-stamping Please merge my original thread with this one. Thanks.

 

[mikevbf]

As long as there are plenty of S reservations in the queue, that's where Tesla's focus should remain. Make cars & deliver. They do need to add the X production line in order to keep the market happy, but until Model S production/deliveries are all running smooth with production costs stable, don't add the X. (And I say that as a Sig reservation holder.)

Practically every advance they make on Model S will translate to the Model X. That's good news for me, even if I have to wait longer.

I wish I could be as rational and patient as those who already have Tesla in their garage. Speaking from the camp that does not, I am so ready for the end to this seriously drawn out game of delayed gratification. I would take one today rough edges and all as long as they had the duel motor and TC operating properly together. But alas those more rational and wise among us are completely right that us Model X reservation holders only stand to gain as they perfect the MS. And yes I will agree that the company needs to become profitable now even over longer term stability which requires focus not expansion at this stage. Sigh... It's more difficult being patient these days now that I have decided against getting a RWD Model S.

 

[blakegallagher]

After hearing Elon speak in Norway (he got very techinical) I feel alot better about the Model S and RWD .... he said that they monitor the speed of the front wheels and never let the back wheels spin any faster than the front .... it sounds like it would perform nearly as well as some 4WD vehicles do. For all but offroad applications it should be sufficiant. Although having spent time stuck in the snow with 4WD and chains I would love a 4WD option as well.

 

[mikevbf]

... Although having spent time stuck in the snow with 4WD and chains I would love a 4WD option as well.

Does that happen in South Texas?

 

[bonnie]

I wish I could be as rational and patient as those who already have Tesla in their garage. Speaking from the camp that does not, I am so ready for the end to this seriously drawn out game of delayed gratification. I would take one today rough edges and all as long as they had the duel motor and TC operating properly together. But alas those more rational and wise among us are completely right that us Model X reservation holders only stand to gain as they perfect the MS. And yes I will agree that the company needs to become profitable now even over longer term stability which requires focus not expansion at this stage. Sigh... It's more difficult being patient these days now that I have decided against getting a RWD Model S.

Check back with me in a year. I might start getting impatient . I've never been that good at delayed gratification, but you're right ... I already have a Tesla in the garage. That does make it easier.

 

[vfx]

.... he said that they monitor the speed of the front wheels and never let the back wheels spin any faster than the front .... it... I would love a 4WD option as well.

George B told me the front motor is smaller. It's better because that's all that is needed.

 

[AnOutsider]

George B told me the front motor is smaller. It's better because that's all that is needed.

I think he's referring to the current RWD Model S

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

As others have said before, I suspect that the biggest reason for the Model X delay is the "catastrophic success" that Tesla's experiencing with the Model S.

I got that curious phrase btw from another story of American manufacturing success: BBC News - American Giant: The problems of being an overnight success

 

[AnOutsider]

As others have said before, I suspect that the biggest reason for the Model X delay is the "catastrophic success" that Tesla's experiencing with the Model S.

I'd venture a mixture of that, plus the X wouldn't have been ready anyway. The success means they can spend more time on the X.

I got the feeling that if it had come out "on time", the X would have had similar issues to the S at launch. With the S selling well, perhaps they can operate for longer without needing another model to boost sales. That being the case, they can spend that time focusing on making the car better.

 

[fengshui]

Model X Delayed till Late 2014

Edmunds.com contacted Tesla PR and confirmed the delay in production mentioned in the most recent SEC filing:

"We've been very focused on production and deliveries of Model S and will be pushing back production of Model X to late 2014," wrote Shanna Hendriks, a Tesla spokeswoman, in response to a query from Edmunds.

Tesla Model X Launch Delayed Until Late 2014 | Edmunds.com

 

[Lyon]

Whatever the reason it's kind of a bummer for us. We've got our third kid on the way, due in late September, and my wife was hoping to only need to drive our 3/4 ton Suburban for a few months before her Model X arrived. Now we're putting some serious thought into leasing a *gulp* mini-van for a year while we wait.

Oh well, I suppose waiting a little longer for one's expensive all-electric CUV isn't a bad problem to have. Everything said about about Model S needing to be the focus and spending time to get Model X right is accurate... I don't have to LIKE it though.

 

[aronth5]

Edmunds.com contacted Tesla PR and confirmed the delay in production mentioned in the most recent SEC filing:
Tesla Model X Launch Delayed Until Late 2014 | Edmunds.com

Is it me or are many people over-reacting to the delay announced by Tesla? Many of the posts I've seen refer to a one year delay and yet Tesla's web site has said delivery in 2014 for a long time. I've always assumed that meant delivery of the Model X would happen in the 2nd half of the year. If Tesla announced delivery was pushed out to 2015 that is different. As to Elon's announcement in Norway that they would see the Model X in 2015 that in consistent with the Model S. Delivery to Europe is happening a year after the US. I'm just trying to think of the announcement in terms of the glass is half full rather than half empty!

 

[AnOutsider]

Is it me or are many people over-reacting to the delay announced by Tesla? Many of the posts I've seen refer to a one year delay and yet Tesla's web site has said delivery in 2014 for a long time. I've always assumed that meant delivery of the Model X would happen in the 2nd half of the year. If Tesla announced delivery was pushed out to 2015 that is different. As to Elon's announcement in Norway that they would see the Model X in 2015 that in consistent with the Model S. Delivery to Europe is happening a year after the US. I'm just trying to think of the announcement in terms of the glass is half full rather than half empty!

Well Tesla did originally say late 2013 with "significant deliveries" beginning in 2014. I did put a mental buffer in to the summer when I saw the date change to 2014, but the end of 2014 is basically 2015 (same 2013 was really significant in 2014), so it's definitely a year slip.

 

[aronth5]

Well Tesla did originally say late 2013 with "significant deliveries" beginning in 2014. I did put a mental buffer in to the summer when I saw the date change to 2014, but the end of 2014 is basically 2015 (same 2013 was really significant in 2014), so it's definitely a year slip.

A year delay from the original announcement yup, but I don't see how the recent announcement should be considered another year delay.
Then again math was never my strong suit.

 

[mikevbf]

Is it me or are many people over-reacting to the delay announced by Tesla? Many of the posts I've seen refer to a one year delay and yet Tesla's web site has said delivery in 2014 for a long time. I've always assumed that meant delivery of the Model X would happen in the 2nd half of the year.

Yes I think the press is over reacting, because drama gets views. Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but I think Nigel's point below that statements in a 10k have to be "ultra conservative" is a good one.

Don't forget that if a company puts any statement like that in their 10k they are really going to play it ultra-conservative because it's a forward looking statement. Tesla would be crazy to state anything optimistic.

In other words late 2014 is the worst case scenario with earlier in the 2nd half of 2014 still possible (crosses his fingers).

 

[aronth5]

Yes I think the press is over reacting, because drama gets views. Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but I think Nigel's point below that statements in a 10k have to be "ultra conservative" is a good one.
In other words late 2014 is the worst case scenario with earlier in the 2nd half of 2014 still possible (crosses his fingers).

Actually in this case I think it is a matter of forum members over reacting more than the press. And that is probably the first time I could say that.

 

[Zzzz...]

A year delay from the original announcement yup, but I don't see how the recent announcement should be considered another year delay.
Then again math was never my strong suit.

Elon confirmed start of X production at the end of 2013 during Q&A session when Q2 '12 financial results were announced. Two quarters later, basically half a year later clearly a year delay was announced, now in shareholders latter...

So it is very natural for people to try to figure out why such sudden change of plans... And how it will affect financial performance of TM, time of introduction of BluGenIII etc...