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Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by bonnie, Mar 7, 2013.

  1. JMO

    JMO Member

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  2. SMCModelSFan

    SMCModelSFan Member

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  3. dennis

    dennis P85D

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    #43 dennis, Mar 14, 2013
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2013
    So the Model X delivery has slipped twice as fast as real time (4 quarters in 2 quarters). I was always concerned with software development projects that slipped in real time - this is much worse.

    I can think of 3 reasons for this slip:

    1. The stated one - Tesla is concerned about profitabiity and wants to delay the expense of ramping up headcount to put the Model X in production along side the Model S.

    2. Tesla is concerned about cash flow and wants to delay spending the cash necessary for production tooling of the Model X and building a parallel assembly line.

    3. There are some engineering issues with the Model X and it would not be ready to go into production at the end of 2013 as confirmed 6 months ago.

    The delay is likely a result of one or all of the above reasons.
     
  4. Dragonfly

    Dragonfly Member

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    I'm waiting for Gen III, this stinks.
     
  5. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    Or,
    4. The Model X will be a better product if they ensure the Model S platform is as stabile as possible, before porting code to another product.

    - - - Updated - - -

    (Personally, I go with #1. Sometimes the stated reason is the reason.)
     
  6. adurstewitz

    adurstewitz P3853, VIN3062

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    “I almost have trouble calling this a delay in Model X, because that makes it sound like we’ve run into problems with Model X, and it’s taking longer than we thought, and it’s out of our control,” Ms. Hendricks wrote. “When, really, we’re consciously pushing back timing to allow ourselves to focus on its production and product enhancements in Model S.”
     
  7. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    Here's my shot:

    The design and engineering teams that were planned to start work on Model X are kept busy longer than planned to refine Model S for ramp up and reaching gross margin targets. This is no loss of capital, just time. It will hurt later on, though.
     
  8. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    I agree, Volker. I'm sure it's been a 'all hands on deck' in ensuring Model S customers are taken care of. I sincerely doubt there are currently problems with Model X design work because I don't believe there is a prioritized team working on it right now. (Hard to have problems with the design if nothing has been done!)

    If so, prioritizing Modsel S is the right decision on the part of Tesla. It's the one I would make. And as the teams resolve any Model S problems, they'll carry that knowledge to the Model X. Yay.
     
  9. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    The delay is mostly what I expected. Tesla has missed the initial date on the Roadster, then on the Model S, and now on the X, and the G3 "guesstimate" has been pushed out to something like 2017. Tesla says they run like a tech company and my experience in the tech industry says overly ambitious target dates are the norm :)

    I'm kind of glad they're slowing down a little. It's one thing to run on the ragged edge trying to get going as a company, either bust out or go broke. You don't want to ride that ragged edge to close once you cross that threshold to a viable company or you'll eventually fall off.
     
  10. drinkerofkoolaid

    drinkerofkoolaid Active Member

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    Just a thought. Perhaps the slip has to do with one of these three reasons :
    1. they anticipate demand for the Model S will push the factory to near maximum capacity.
    2. New Battery Technology coming.
    3. Supply constrained.
     
  11. ohh

    ohh Member

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    I was thinking in the lines of your 2nd point above; the slip in time of delivery makes it (more) possible to come up with even higher capacity battery pack, which I would salute.
    2015 for Norway delivery suits me fine. I'm down on a Sig reservation. In the mean time I'll wait for and drive my Model S :)
     
  12. goneskiian

    goneskiian Active Member

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    #52 goneskiian, Mar 21, 2013
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2013
    As was I. I would hope they have a slightly larger pack available to bump the range to at least keep it equal to the S. I'm assuming, of course, that the X will have a harder time with range due to it being larger (aerodynamic and weight effects).
     
  13. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    My personal pet theory is that the model X has been delayed because Tesla realizes that they have some really serious problems to solve on the "soft" end of the business -- delivery, customer relations, legal, service, etc., and that the executives need to spend some time straightening that out before complicating the manufacturing situation.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think this is a polite way of saying something similar what I said: the company has realized that they have other things they need to fix before going gung-ho into a second product.
     
  14. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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    Arise, Model X timeline thread!

    Would anyone care to venture a guess as to when we should expect to see firmer specification / option / pricing information for the X? Assuming initial deliveries in late 2014 as stated, when do you think we'll see an X design studio, etc? I wasn't paying close enough attention during the lead-up to the Roadster and S to have a very educated guess.
     
  15. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    When Elon determines it is most appropriate to squeeze the shorts a little more. We should again expect a lot of drip-drip-drip to keep Tesla in the news (aka free advertisement).
     
  16. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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    Well sure. I'm just looking for a rough guesstimate based on past experience. 3 months before first delivery? 12? 42 days? ;)
     
  17. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    With the pushback, I don't expect to see anything significant until mid to late spring of next year, with some real firm goodness in the summer of that same year.
     
  18. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    +1. That's when I'm mentally expecting to start hearing more information.
     
  19. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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  20. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

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    Just a thought: do you think it's possible Tesla will make an all wheel drive Model S first, to get some experience/engineering tested on the newly enhanced platform, before releasing the Model X, which at that point will just be a different body on the improved/tested all wheel drive train? I think it could be a possibility...
     

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