Model X - What do we (think we) know, July 2015 update
As an update to the
June 2015 update and smaller updates in this thread on what (we think) we know of the Model X. Perhaps we'll get to the Design Studio shortly, but as July draws to a close I'll provide one more update to this thread to make some sense of the recent discussions in July:
How different are the Model X mules from...
One hot topic has been how different are the mules from the production vehicle, with
betting going on. I think NigelM and provide quotable counter-arguments on for the pros and cons of Tesla hiding or not hiding the final version at factory. There is also a claim from ElectricFarmBoy to illustrate possibly some changes still on-going at Tesla, design-wise:
Without reopening old discussions: I can tell you that Tesla uses aluminum body panels. Those panels can be pressed on relatively cheap wooden dies (nowhere near good enough for full production, but easy to produce 50-100 sets); Tesla's stamping and pressing capabilities are already in-house. So yes, it's quite easy and cheap to do this.
WRT to plastic parts, IIRC Tesla has some in-house ability to make small number of plastic parts; even if they couldn't do that they could be getting small quantities made by third parties. Or hey, there's always 3D printing. Worth noting how often plastic trim has been missing or mis-matched on color. So that's also possible.
I agree with JST & others that we are seeing release candidates that will not be drastically different than the final product. A) Elon has indicated a couple of times that the X is on schedule and now ~2 months away. B) In May, he said they had
"hundreds" of release candidates going through final testing rounds. C) Hundreds of release candidates are being hidden away while so many "mules" are on the road? Meh, I don't think so. D) Elon said they wouldn't "show" the Model X before deliveries began. I agree with the person who emphasized that this meant "have an unveiling." There's a difference between "showing" it and testing it in places where it can be spotted with camo. E) NigelM presents some interesting theories about how they could be cheaply producing the body panels, but I just don't see Tesla doing this. They are working their asses off trying to get this out the door "on time" (if we can call it that), get the Gigafactory rolling, get Tesla Energy rolling, get the Model 3 on track... I just don't see them messing around with wildly different decoys to throw people off. F) Some of the cars in recent pics (like ones in San Fran and the one with the wipers hidden) look pretty darn sharp to me. As AnxietyRanger has pointed out, they've gotten better and better. Why would Tesla keep improving on decoy mules like this? I just don't see it. G) Of course, we'll see minor trim, bumper, etc improvements that will make the X look a lot hotter (don't think anyone disagrees with that). H) I voted in the poll and will join the bet if it's still that thing about putting something in our signatures for a month.
Okay, so not a sighting but something close. I was in the Bay Area this week and bumped into a Tesla staffer. He indicated he'd recently been getting training on the X, that the design studio was coming very very soon, but that there were 3 last looks they were experimenting with and hadn't decided upon. These must be quite minor at this point I'd think, but it does show the situation would seem to be fluid still. He said no matter which is picked they are all spectacular. BUT...he said they are worried about a negative reaction due to the range of the X being less than what we're used to with the S. That would imply that no magic 100kWh is going to be jumping out of the cake...
Also, a much-discussed topic has been how different are the mules from the 2012-2013 prototypes(s). A photo thread and subsequent debate illustrates:
How different are the 2015 Model X mules vs. 2012-2013 prototype(s)
There was also discussion on whether or not call the 2015 witnessed cars Betas, Release Candidates or Mules:
Model X Mule Sightings - Page 144 My personal opinion is calling them mules is simplest for discussion, because we don't know what they are, but I agree they can be camoed Betas or even Release Candidates with some trim missing/camoed.
Speaking of prototypes and mules,
1208 some time ago noted the nose shape of the Model X mules looks like the Model S prototype, which I think is an accurate description - whether or not that front remains (it is by far the most camoed and unfinished-looking part of the mule sightings of past six months) for production remains to be seen of course:
Is the (finished) Model X delayed?
Big hooplah came from the anonymous claim
from Eds, as quoted below. In the end, Eds made some weird back and forth on the nature of the claims and his location - whether this was indicative of trolling, trying to hide his tracks/sources or merely back communication, is unknown.
As all OEMs do Tesla are committing to “launch” Tesla X in few / couple months. This will be as follows:
- Build few hundred, mostly, press cars
- Deliver less than 100 cars to customers by end of the year
- Call it successful launch of the new model
The real story is as follows:
- Tesla are still doing design changes to some components as they are realising post RC1 build that they have significant number of “challenges”
- RC2 build vehicles will be “sellable” vehicles but will have number of prototype components that will not be at final specification and therefore inferior to production components that will come in early next year.
- Several suppliers do not even have their new machines up and running to provide components; their production tooling is only going to be completed around late Oct / early Nov 2015…
- Significant challenges in supplier base management. I prefer not to go into details at this point
- All this is because Elon M does not want to see the share price plummet by announcing that they will miss the launch of Model X this year and that there are number of important issues that they have not resolved/do not know how to resolve yet
- I would not buy early cars as they will be severely compromised in numerous areas
A little something was also made from factory tours
not being on last week of July or first week of August. There was also
debate on confidential information on TMC and some notes
about an NDA tour participating TMC members received from Tesla.
Mules with frickin' laser beams attached to their heads!
Second topic has been sightings of Model X mules with
numerous cameras attached to them as well as potential Model X/S mule sightings
with rear corner radars and
rear middle or lasers.
Best sightings of those camera setups
from gordo:
Potential rear side radar locations of Model X and Model S mules (links to the threads above):
Both of the mules also show what look possibly like rear middle radars. The Model X of course has been sighted several times with a gaping hole in the rear bumper, which has been speculated as either radar testing or folding tow testing or something to that effect.
Here is the Mercedes Benz S Class configuration, to give some idea of the extended front and rear radars Tesla might be looking at. Currently Model S only has one front radar, one front camera (plus one rear camera) and the ultrasonics. In comparison, current high-end Germans sport four to five radars, around six cameras and the ultrasonics.
Source:
Model X Mule has front bumper camera(s)? - Page 3
Of course there has also been
the comparison to nVidia DRIVE PX camera locations, although I guess it is widely agreed by now DRIVE PX may not be the technology itself being used, but it could also be a (combination) of technologies like EyeQ3, other nVidia, Bosch etc.:
Cherish the pale green dot
The
discussion on the green dot is still very much alive (original
sightings here), with the concensus seemingly being it is either a sticker left over from testing/pre-production or it is a light relating to auto-pilot (autonomous drive) status.
Personally I'm leaning on a sticker based on this image, just like with the
missing A pillar panels and
adaptive spoiler looking like mere rear glass sometimes low-resolution photos can do tricks to your mind. We can not place too much emphasis on details made out of low-resolution photos, but it is fun to speculate of course.
Any lights flashing in the are are probably just camouflaged third brake light showing through?
here is where the light started flashing as I approached the Model X. I could see it with my naked eye when both my vehicle and the Model X was stopped. Maybe it was the clouds or something or is it a sensor of some sort
View attachment 88282
Regarding autonomous drive, a really cool Model S mule but potentially unrelated to any current production preparation work,
was recently sighted too.
Ludicrous Mode
The Model S P90 launch brought us some information of
a Ludicrous Mode for Model X as well. 0-60 times of around 3.0-3.3 seconds were quoted or speculated, based on a remark from Tesla. Of course this announcement has also affected the
105D speculation for Model X, suggesting maybe we'll now see just Model X 90D, instead of 105D, at start (plus perhaps 70D). As illustrated by ElectricFarmBoy quote early in this message, it seems (and
discussion has followed), Model X will probably sport lesser range than Model S.
100+ kW battery isn't impossible, though of course.
That's no moon, it's Model X's front glass!
The
pondering of Gorilla Glass and/or
electrochromic windshield has gained some new momentum recently. In any case, it seems pretty much agreed the mules (and thus probably same with production) don't have a cross-beam between A pillars, based on mule interior sightings and September leakster CAD showing such, making for one huge piece of glass all the way from bonnet to falcon wings.
Some disagreement has been posted on safety grounds. The September leakster CAD apparently also showed sunvisors attached to A pillars, FWIW.
Source:
Will Model X have electrochromic windows? - Page 4
On the booty side...
Adaptive poiler has gotten a great look, with a couple notes in tow:
The close-up of the spoiler only shows two mounting points, one at each end, but we also saw a central depression in the spoiler-less mule. I thought that would be used for the raising/lowering mechanism, but maybe it has been removed now.
AnxietyRanger said:
What is interesting about that shot and this old image of mine:
Is that just like I speculated, it seems indeed the glass-looking spoiler is sitting on top of another piece of glass - if you look at the above image to the left, it looks like the rear glass extends underneath the spoiler (or airfoil) and when closed these two pieces sit on top of each other looking somewhat like one long piece of glass, with a small lip. The black area in the image seems to be merely a shadow, not a black area underneath the opened up spoiler.
Hard to say, but it certainly looks like Tesla might be going for a much cleaner design for the upwards spoiler than some of the competition listed on this thread. Whether this is for looks or for aero, I don't know.
Finally, Model X was spotted with an interesting vent reflection, to give an idea what an after-market bumper/diffuser could look like... and a tow:
Source:
Model X Mule Sightings - Page 168
Source:
Model X Mule Sightings - Page 172
We have also noted
numbers on the rear window corners of the mules suggesting tens of Model X mules on the road.
