Model X Will Have Greater Comparative Advantage

[WhiteKnight]

The Model S is an awesome looking car and I love it. But it is going up against a pretty awesome car in terms of the BMW 5 Series. The 0-60 times of 5.6 Standard and 4.5 Sport just match the 0-60 times of the 535i and M5 respectively (with the 550i slotting in between at 5.0 seconds). And the price tags are the same.

But when you think about the Model X and what it might be able to achieve against it's competition. There I think that Tesla can really shine much more brighter. They are talking like Model S will outsell Model X but I think it might actually be the other way around.

Consider some of the competition:
Audi Q7 $47K-$60K 0-60 in 7.5 Skidpad 0.80g MPG 17/25
Lexus LX570 $80K 0-60 in 6.8 Skidpad 0.74g MPG 12/18
Lexus GX460 $53K-$58K 0-60 in 7.2 Skidpad 0.74g MPG 15/20
Range Rover $80K-$95K 0-60 in 5.8 Skidpad 0.74g MPG 12/18

Obviously there are other vehicles as well but what they all have in common is (1) they're very heavy (2) they are not that quick-because they're so fat (3) they are high-riding and have poor handling (tons of body roll) (4) they get terrible gas mileage and often require premium fuel.

There are also plenty of minivans on the market that top out at $40K when fully loaded, get slightly better mileage but have worse performance, no 4WD capability, etc.

Now, enter the Model X . . .
It can seat 3-rows with 6-8 people.
It already has a flat floor so we don't have to build up above the drivetrain to eliminate the tunnel
It achieves 4 wheel drive with two motors (see below)
It has a very low center of gravity and it can handle very well
It can have a very low step-in height but still have high ground clearance via the Air-Ride suspension
It is all aluminum and it will weigh only marginally more than the Model S (much less than its competitors)
It burns zero gas!

With two separate motors several things should be possible:
(1) It should be very fast [Elon Musk said to get the Model S below 4.0 seconds in 0-60 they'd need a 2nd motor - well Model X has one]
(2) It should have great 4-wheel drive performance
(3) It should tow a huge amount as well if properly outfitted [consider that every locomotive in this country is powered by an electric motor for the incredible torque]

The Model X might be a greater home run for Tesla than the Model S.

In fact I might switch my Model S reservation to a Model X and buy that for my wife, then wait a few years for the 4WD Super Sport Model S to debut in 2015 or so for my car.

 

[Mycroft]

Good points WK. We live in interesting times!

 

[Doug_G]

Also it will be unusually stable for a crossover; despite high road clearance it would still have most of its weight very low down. It will probably be much more stable than any SUV on the road today.

 

[AnOutsider]

I've also said that I think the X will be a better seller. Americans love crossovers, especially if they're sporty (myself included). I think you missed an important comparator though: the Porsche Cayenne.

We know the X is going to be priced at or above the S, and I'm betting at least 10k over the base S. We don't know anything about specs just yet, but here are the Cayenne's. Assume first that the X will come in 10k above the base S, and have the same specs (which is unlikely since it's bigger) so:

Model X:

0-60 mph: 5.6 s
Top Speed: 125 mph
MSRP $ 67,500.00

Base:

300 hp @ 6,300 rpm
0-60 mph: 7.1 s
Top Track Speed: 142 mph
MSRP $ 48,200.00

S:

400 hp @ 6,500 rpm
0-60 mph: 5.6 s
Top Track Speed: 160 mph
MSRP $ 65,000.00

Hybrid:

380 hp @ 5,500 rpm
0-60 mph: 6.1 s
Top Track Speed: 150 mph
MSRP $ 69,000.00

Turbo S:

500 hp @ 6,000 rpm
0-60 mph: 4.4 s
Top Track Speed: 172 mph
MSRP $ 107,100.00

Model X seems to compare best with Cayenne S in my guesstimates there. So yeah, I think that'll be the real competition, which is fitting seeing how Elon likes to compare his car to Porsche's.

 

[WhiteKnight]

The Porsche Cayenne Turbo S looks crazy fast with a 0-60 of 4.4s. But I'm guessing that Tesla could design a Model X that beats it with two motors and the 1200A upgrade. Great thing about their manufacturing flexibility is they can just hang it out there with a price tag of $97,000 and if somebody orders one then they go and build it. And I think the Model X base model can meet or beat the Cayenne Hybrid at 6.1s.

Does anyone smarter than me know what happens to a battery if you try to tow a 6,000 pound trailer behind your EV? I am sure that dual motors will have the grunt needed to pull a trailer of this size but I'm wondering how it will hammer the battery?

 

[efxjim]

With the equivalent of about 3 gal of gasoline's energy. It may tow well but will not be able to handle the drag of a trailer without a severe dent in the range.

 

[vfx]

Model X seems to compare best with Cayenne S in my guesstimates there. So yeah, I think that'll be the real competition, which is fitting seeing how Elon likes to compare his car to Porsche's.

I've ridden in both. The S blows the P C away.

 

[Kevin Harney]

What about how it stacks up to the BMW X3 and X5? I think those will probably be good targets as well. Maybe even the X6 as it is probably closer to that body style.

 

[NigelM]

I've ridden in both. The S blows the P C away.

And that's a Beta vs a production car!

 

[AnOutsider]

I've ridden in both. The S blows the P C away.

I'd agree, though the real comparison will be the X. Porsche took an SUV and made it a sports car with the Turbo S. whipping around something that big just isn't natural! I don't doubt that they can, but Tesla will have to match or beat that with the X.

 

[WhiteKnight]

It may tow well but will not be able to handle the drag of a trailer without a severe dent in the range.

That's what I'm wondering about . . . how much of a penalty would that be to range? With a 300 mile battery pack are you down to 100 miles towing 6,000 pounds? Still might be enough for most people to get to the lake.

 

[dsm363]

Less than 10% of people ever take their SUVs off road (can't remember where I read that). I'd imagine about that percentage or less ever tow anything really heavy too. I think they'll market this more for it's size and for hauling families around more than towing cargo.

 

[AnOutsider]

Less than 10% of people even take their SUVs off road (can't remember where I read that). I'd imagine about that percentage or less every tow anything really heavy too. I think they'll market this more for it's size and for hauling families around more than towing cargo.

Yeah, I don't. If I needed that, I would get a full sized truck like an F150

 

[tdelta1000]

WK you make some good points about the Model X and its viability.

 

[richkae]

Because the Model X will be heavier and have much larger cross section ( drag ) - the same battery from the Sedan will provide less range in the Model X.
The 300 mile battery from the Model S might only provide 230 miles of range in the Model X ( a wild guess ). Of course they could make an even bigger battery for the top of the line Model X, but now the price goes up even more.

 

[WhiteKnight]

Given that the Model S is targeting the BMW 5 series then I suppose it would make sense that the Model X would target the X5, particularly since the X5 is based on the 5 series just like the Model X will be based on the Model S.

So here are some X5 data points:
X5 35i $46K (before options) 0-60 in 9.22s Skidpad 0.84g 16/23 MPG 4,960# curb weight 6,000# towing capacity
X5 50i $59K (before options) 0-60 in 6.85s Skidpad 0.82g 14/20 MPG 5,379# curb weight 6,000# towing capacity
X5 M $86K (before options) 0-60 in 5.07s Skidpad 0.85g 12/17MPG 5,247# curb weight 6,000# towing capacity

Options can easily add $10K-$15K to the sticker. You have a 4 year/50K mile warranty and that includes all maintenance (which is a nice feature).

Maximum interior cargo volume is 61.8 cubic feet. The Model S is 66.2 cubic feet (including the frunk) so the Model X will crush them here. In fact the third row on the X5 is a joke. I don't think Elon's boys could fit back there.

Given that the Model X will burn no gas and require very little maintenance the first 4 years I think it beats the X5 here as well.

Acceleration can be as good or better. I think the Model X Sport (with 2 motors) should rival the Model S Sport at 4.5s to 60.

Handling of Model X should also be superior with the low center of gravity.

The X5 will have a more luxurious interior and more developed list of options (night vision, etc).

The real question mark is towing. 6,000 pounds covers the Class 3 towing. (Classes 4 and 5 are for like Fifth Wheel Campers and really large trailers, but normal boats and horse trailers are Class 3).

I think the Model X can tow 6,000 pounds I just wonder how badly that kills the range of the battery and IF such battery abuse will shorten its life. Worst case scenario would be if Tesla says "you cannot tow."

Very very few buyers of luxury SUVs really need the ability to tow anything at all. But in America we like to have options and since every other Crossover/SUV with any credibility can tow 6,000 pounds I think the Model X should have that ability too. Otherwise people look at it and say "it's not a real SUV."

 

[WhiteKnight]

Crazy Idea

I read somewhere that at highway speeds the weight does not matter, it's really a function of wind resistance, which is why the Model S needed such a low coefficient of drag. The Model X must be less aerodynamic than the Model S (like richkae says above) which will hurt highway performance (should not hurt 0-60 too much though).

What if Tesla developed a super-slick trailer, or some kind of wind sock, or something that would make the trailer more aerodynamic and maybe connect it to the vehicle itself with flexible fabric or maybe some kind of lightweight plastic. It gives people the option (which very very few will exercise) to tow effectively on the highway - maybe.

 

[vfx]

...Of course they could make an even bigger battery for the top of the line Model X, but now the price goes up even more.

I had suggested they stack two packs up.

 

[dsm363]

This is probably not the best idea but would a custom Tesla trailer with a 300 mile pack in the floorboard help at all with range or would hauling around 1,000 lbs of battery plus trailer weight and contents decrease the added range so much it wouldn't be worth the costs of a very expensive, custom trailer?

 

[red42shorty]

What if Tesla developed a super-slick trailer, or some kind of wind sock, or something that would make the trailer more aerodynamic and maybe connect it to the vehicle itself with flexible fabric or maybe some kind of lightweight plastic. It gives people the option (which very very few will exercise) to tow effectively on the highway - maybe.

They already do this in the tucking industry. I recently saw these guys mentioned on the local news in San Mateo: ATDynamics - Fuel Efficiency Aerodynamic Technology for Tractor Trailers saving over 10% with TrailerTail and Side Skirts ... They design those wind-sock things you talk about for tractor trailers. I think they're located in San Francisco somewhere. Would be cool to see two silicon valley business partner up for better fuel economy!