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Model X70D? Do we even need it at this point?

mrdoubleb

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jul 2, 2013
2,603
14,423
Budapest, Hungary
Don't hate on me if you have been holding out for a X70D reservation, i know the thread title is a little provocative. The idea was floated by a few people in the Configuration thread wondering if it would make it above 200miles of range and if it is worth releasing at all if it doesn't?

This got me thinking though. If your factory is booked with orders through the next 3 quarters, why introduce a cheaper model right now? It would be logical to max out revenue/profits by only offering the top model if it still fills the factory floor for the next, say, 6 months, wouldn't it? Then when/if sales start to slow down, introduce a cheaper model to boost interest.

What do you think?

PS: I know it's only sigs now, so an X70D may very well be on the cards when "normal" folk start to configure. This is just a thought experiment...
 

AnOutsider

S532 # XS27
Apr 3, 2009
11,957
200
Don't hate on me if you have been holding out for a X70D reservation, i know the thread title is a little provocative. The idea was floated by a few people in the Configuration thread wondering if it would make it above 200miles of range and if it is worth releasing at all if it doesn't?

This got me thinking though. If your factory is booked with orders through the next 3 quarters, why introduce a cheaper model right now? It would be logical to max out revenue/profits by only offering the top model if it still fills the factory floor for the next, say, 6 months, wouldn't it? Then when/if sales start to slow down, introduce a cheaper model to boost interest.

What do you think?

PS: I know it's only sigs now, so an X70D may very well be on the cards when "normal" folk start to configure. This is just a thought experiment...

Tesla prioritized 85Kwh Model S's when they first started production. I can see similar happening this time around as well.

- - - Updated - - -

Don't hate on me if you have been holding out for a X70D reservation, i know the thread title is a little provocative. The idea was floated by a few people in the Configuration thread wondering if it would make it above 200miles of range and if it is worth releasing at all if it doesn't?

This got me thinking though. If your factory is booked with orders through the next 3 quarters, why introduce a cheaper model right now? It would be logical to max out revenue/profits by only offering the top model if it still fills the factory floor for the next, say, 6 months, wouldn't it? Then when/if sales start to slow down, introduce a cheaper model to boost interest.

What do you think?

PS: I know it's only sigs now, so an X70D may very well be on the cards when "normal" folk start to configure. This is just a thought experiment...

Tesla prioritized 85Kwh Model S's when they first started production. I can see similar happening this time around as well.
 

spentan

Active Member
Dec 26, 2012
1,516
452
SoCal
The 70 was released (as an update to 60) with the X originally in mind. (The 70 would've cannibalized 85kWh sales, mainly because the difference in range is not that significant)

I'm pretty sure an X70D will get over 200mi, prob 220 or so. The X90D (not P) will probably get around 255-265mi, bringing it in line with the RWD 85.

Thats my estimate
 

vigge50

Member
May 2, 2014
653
506
Sverige
Don't hate on me if you have been holding out for a X70D reservation, i know the thread title is a little provocative. The idea was floated by a few people in the Configuration thread wondering if it would make it above 200miles of range and if it is worth releasing at all if it doesn't?

This got me thinking though. If your factory is booked with orders through the next 3 quarters, why introduce a cheaper model right now? It would be logical to max out revenue/profits by only offering the top model if it still fills the factory floor for the next, say, 6 months, wouldn't it? Then when/if sales start to slow down, introduce a cheaper model to boost interest.

What do you think?

PS: I know it's only sigs now, so an X70D may very well be on the cards when "normal" folk start to configure. This is just a thought experiment...
Where does it says that all 20000 reservation holders is ready to buy a full equipt Model X? There could be a lot of reservation holders that want a Model X but don't have enough money so they will go with a 70D. Tesla have earlier said that Model X will be little more expensive then Model S but if Model X only exist with 90 kW and start at close to $100.000 tesla will have lots of cancelations and that the last thing tesla want right now I believe.
 

gregincal

Active Member
Oct 26, 2012
3,773
2,315
Santa Cruz, CA
Where does it says that all 20000 reservation holders is ready to buy a full equipt Model X? There could be a lot of reservation holders that want a Model X but don't have enough money so they will go with a 70D. Tesla have earlier said that Model X will be little more expensive then Model S but if Model X only exist with 90 kW and start at close to $100.000 tesla will have lots of cancelations and that the last thing tesla want right now I believe.

Sure, but if you wanted a 60kWh Model S you had to wait an additional 2 months. If you wanted standard suspension you had to wait longer. I don't believe they would only build 90's for 6 months, but nothing says all configurations have to deliver at the same time either.

Also, it seems pretty clear a 70D would have more than 200 miles of range. The Model X seems to take about 10% reduction in range over the Model S.
 

Saghost

Well-Known Member
Oct 9, 2013
8,217
7,010
Delaware
Don't hate on me if you have been holding out for a X70D reservation, i know the thread title is a little provocative. The idea was floated by a few people in the Configuration thread wondering if it would make it above 200miles of range and if it is worth releasing at all if it doesn't?

This got me thinking though. If your factory is booked with orders through the next 3 quarters, why introduce a cheaper model right now? It would be logical to max out revenue/profits by only offering the top model if it still fills the factory floor for the next, say, 6 months, wouldn't it? Then when/if sales start to slow down, introduce a cheaper model to boost interest.

What do you think?

PS: I know it's only sigs now, so an X70D may very well be on the cards when "normal" folk start to configure. This is just a thought experiment...

Not sure why people are thinking it won't even make 200 miles?

The one data point we've been given was a signature XP90D with a 240 mile estimated EPA range. That's comparable to a P90D - which should be 253 "+6%" miles - possibly 268 miles, possibly a little less.

This means at most a ~10% penalty, at least a 5% one. So Given Tesla's testing showed ~245 miles for the 70D, an X70D should be in the 220-230 EPA mile range - substantially better than the S60 was, at least - and no one is suggesting they aren't worth bothering with or can't do road trips...
Walter
 

ecarfan

Well-Known Member
Sep 21, 2013
19,345
14,011
West Vancouver, British Columbia
I think it a certainty that Tesla will offer the 70 battery in the X, as the range will be a bit over 200 miles which is enough for many people, and it will reduce the vehicle price significantly from the 90 version.
 

quantumslip

Member
Mar 3, 2015
484
518
Earth
Part of the issue is that a bunch of people did calculations that they thought showed the x70D would be getting close to or under 200 miles, when they forgot that they were using the performance version of the X as a reference point. The regular 90D should have a longer range, from which people have calculated that the 70D version of the X should be comfortably above 200 miles.
 

mrdoubleb

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jul 2, 2013
2,603
14,423
Budapest, Hungary
Yeah, so those calculations may have been wrong, we won't really know until Tesla announces the X70D. I am a little concerned if it's in the 210s rather than the 220s we may be cutting it close with "real world miles" as in, winter, tough(er) terrain, etc. I may be naiv, but I always though the SUV use case was more "active" with more trips o the country side, packing up kids and stuff, maybe going on gravel and dirt roads too.

But my main point was more from a business point of view. Remember how the S40 was discontinued due to lack of demand? Would it make sense for Tesla to wait, maybe a month or two before releasing the X70D and test the market, see how many reservations still turn to orders? Usually cheaper models are there to generate volume, spike interest - what if the production lines would still be kept busy without that? The Model S ASP is still above 100K despite the success of the 70 series. So if a base X90D (not P or Sig P) would still start under 100k, it may be all they need - for now. I am quite sure after the initial rush a cheaper base model is needed.
 

JRod0802

Member
Dec 15, 2010
675
22
Boston, MA
My guess is when the lower capacity is released it will be X75D.

Yeah, mine too. The difference between the Model S 85 and 90 was newer chemistry. I don't see why they'd use the old chemistry batteries on the Model X at all (on either the smaller battery or the larger battery), so it makes sense that it'd have the newer chemistry on the smaller battery too.
 

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