Model Y 2170 vs 4680

[ScoobyDoo82]

Actually we do know a bit about the 4680s from the earnings call. The 4680s will net a 15% advantage when the efficiency is at its peak but right now it's not there yet. Elon said end of year or 2023 the 4680s will be scaled up. Right now they're being produced but they're not at the performance level they are want it to be at.

To the rest, you don't want 4680s right now. Next year when they are peaked, then yes yes yes but right now, nooo.

Months ago they disclosed (Ryan Shane’s YouTube channel) that the 4860’s aren’t going to be incorporated as a means to achieve 500 mile range until well into 2023-2024. Tesla doesn’t want to piss off legacy customers and needs to ease into 4860 capacity gradually so as to not cannibalize the early (lower range) 4860 customers. Eventually, M3, MY, S, and X will all have 4860 cells with 500 mile range across all the different variations. They just have to do it gently. This works in Tesla’s favor anyway because they still need to get production ramped. The first LR 4860 cars will be software locked and get additional range granted over time to keep things fair. So 4860 LR and P cars will have 300ish mile range at the beginning even though they are capable of so much more, then eventually they will have 400ish mile range “unlocked” over software.. then after about 2-3 years after taking delivery the car will have full capacity (500ish) range enabled. Coupled with evolving feature updates etc, these folks are in for a new 2022-2023 car that literally is a range/feature gift that keeps on giving over a period of a few years. Pretty cool time to be a new Tesla (4860) owner coming up soon.

 

[DanDi58]

And say what you want about 9-12 months to ramp up but they are taking orders for model Y AWD SR with 4680 batteries in less than that window.

Huh? Can you link to the order process?

 

[qdeathstar]

i would be very unhappy if, after waiting 11 months I am expected to pay top dollar for a car I could have bought in 2019 (cheaper!). The reason I ordered the car when I did was to take advantage of the new technologies being touted. If the concept is they want me to pay top dollar after that long a wait, and won’t tell me what I am buying, I’m out! I would accept one with 2170 batteries and new F/R castings, or the maybe same with the 4680 Standard range at my old price, but not old body casting, old batteries they’re trying to dump At top dollar.

Lol you probably wouldn’t t be able to tell the difference between the two batteries. The difference is mainly in the cost savings for Tesla.

 

[TomServo]

Am guessing Tesla will be manufacturing cars with the 2170 and 4680 batteries side by side for some time. I doubt they can flip a switch and make the transition overnight. In order to keep a level playing field for buyers, I'm guessing the new cars with the 4680 batteries will be "electronically controlled" to provide similar specs as cars with the current 2170 batteries. Then at some future date when the transition is complete they send an OTA to release any new potential inherent in the 4680 packs.

The only other way around this is to make cars with the 4680 batteries a distinct and separate model (and pricing) until the transition is complete. Knowing Tesla it would probably be a Performance + model for a higher MSRP.

 

[JohnB007]

Looks like Tesla has already decided to make separate models based on 4680 based on what they did so far.

I personally would not be surprised if they eventually come up with two more models - LR+ and P+ at higher cost. Software locking performance makes sense, but range locking doesn't make sense when battery shortage is the main issue for EV manufacturers. I'm sure they will try to use as little amount of 4680 possible despite advantages over older batteries.

Only when they are completely ready to drop all other older formats, they could replace LR and P with equivalent (or slight improvement but not at LR+ and P+ level) range/performance.

 

[E90alex]

Months ago they disclosed (Ryan Shane’s YouTube channel) that the 4860’s aren’t going to be incorporated as a means to achieve 500 mile range until well into 2023-2024. Tesla doesn’t want to piss off legacy customers and needs to ease into 4860 capacity gradually so as to not cannibalize the early (lower range) 4860 customers. Eventually, M3, MY, S, and X will all have 4860 cells with 500 mile range across all the different variations. They just have to do it gently. This works in Tesla’s favor anyway because they still need to get production ramped. The first LR 4860 cars will be software locked and get additional range granted over time to keep things fair. So 4860 LR and P cars will have 300ish mile range at the beginning even though they are capable of so much more, then eventually they will have 400ish mile range “unlocked” over software.. then after about 2-3 years after taking delivery the car will have full capacity (500ish) range enabled. Coupled with evolving feature updates etc, these folks are in for a new 2022-2023 car that literally is a range/feature gift that keeps on giving over a period of a few years. Pretty cool time to be a new Tesla (4860) owner coming up soon.

No they’ll just not build full battery packs until later. That’s a lot of wasted cells that are in limited supply to not be used.

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

No they’ll just not build full battery packs until later. That’s a lot of wasted cells that are in limited supply to not be used.

Look for yourself:

 

[Skipcam]

Everyone thinks I am cimplanting about not being assured of getting a MYLR with 4680 cells. I am complaining about having to completely pay for and take delivery of a car without knowing what the car is made of. I would be perfectly happy with a MYLR with the new FR castings and 2170 batteries. I would pass and cancel and reorder if told the car is the older design (front/rear assembly with additional 1700 welds). As long as I am buying a Model Y to replace my Model 3 I want one that has at least some of the improvements that Tesla has been trumpeting for quite some time. But to expect me to pay for and except a car that may or may not have some, none, or all, is just wrong. Tell me what it is and then let me decide Whether to buy it or not.

 

[Olle]

i would be very unhappy if, after waiting 11 months I am expected to pay top dollar for a car I could have bought in 2019 (cheaper!). The reason I ordered the car when I did was to take advantage of the new technologies being touted. If the concept is they want me to pay top dollar after that long a wait, and won’t tell me what I am buying, I’m out! I would accept one with 2170 batteries and new F/R castings, or the maybe same with the 4680 Standard range at my old price, but not old body casting, old batteries they’re trying to dump At top dollar.

4680 was touted not in customer marketing but more for prospective employees and investors. They main idea promoted at battery day was how to use 4680 and mega castings to reach massive scale at a lower cost per mile.

A Model Y as such may not change much from a driver's owners perspective even though it is cheaper to make with newer tech. The high price now is just a function of supply and demand, has nothing to do with how much they cut cost in the factory.

Personally I am happy to see the value of my Model Y go up with inflation and increasing demand and couldn't care less about what battery cell or casting I have in it. It sure beats any other Crossover SUV in its price range, by a long shot. Drove my friend's Porsche Macan which is kind of comparable in size and supposed to be one of the best mini Crossover SUVs out there. Yikes, what a turd it was compared to a Y... Would have been much more unhappy to have a gas car and see the value plummet in a few years, even though I don't have the newest Y.

 

[Casss]

Aren't the new cells also a performance downgrade (0-62, peak torque) over the current chemistry also? So probably no AB available, or at a lower rating. Sure I heard that somewhere.

We don't have the choice here in the UK but personally I'd go existing chemistry and architecture over new just on that basis even if I had the choice. The range boost isn't significant enough to make that a deal breaker, especially with the range improvements that are ongoing.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla is making 2170 packaging to slot into the structural bodies on the newer Model Ys out of Texas. Seems likely it's going to be a long time before you can guarantee you are getting those 4680 cells. They gotta do something with all those 2170s coming from Panasonic.

 

[Dennisis]

From what I've read cost savings is the primary driver as Elon doesn't see any need to increase range. "Riding around with a all the time with a large tank of gas" or to that effect is what he stated - he doesn't see the sense in it.

Here’s the link I was thinking of and so inelegantly quoted:

Musk explains why Tesla hasn't tried to make longest-range EV

The weight from the additional battery cells required to match the range of gas cars would slow the car down and make it less efficient, Musk said.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Olle]

From what I've read cost savings is the primary driver as Elon doesn't see any need to increase range. "Riding around with a all the time with a large tank of gas" or to that effect is what he stated - he doesn't see the sense in it.

Exactly. It is a simple business decision based on Tesla's mission to accelerate the world transition to clean energy.

Since Tesla is sold out anyway, increasing the range won't displace a single gas car. But lowering the production cost and material would, because then Tesla can make more cars.

 

[oghowie]

Everyone thinks I am cimplanting about not being assured of getting a MYLR with 4680 cells. I am complaining about having to completely pay for and take delivery of a car without knowing what the car is made of. I would be perfectly happy with a MYLR with the new FR castings and 2170 batteries. I would pass and cancel and reorder if told the car is the older design (front/rear assembly with additional 1700 welds). As long as I am buying a Model Y to replace my Model 3 I want one that has at least some of the improvements that Tesla has been trumpeting for quite some time. But to expect me to pay for and except a car that may or may not have some, none, or all, is just wrong. Tell me what it is and then let me decide Whether to buy it or not.

Well you're getting an AMD chip and other improvements right? I think that's actually a bigger deal than the battery to me.

 

[HellsKitchen]

Well you're getting an AMD chip and other improvements right? I think that's actually a bigger deal than the battery to me.

I don't know if we have life expectancy difference stats, but if the new battery has significantly more, that trumps everything.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Aren't the new cells also a performance downgrade (0-62, peak torque) over the current chemistry also? So probably no AB available, or at a lower rating. Sure I heard that somewhere.

We don't have the choice here in the UK but personally I'd go existing chemistry and architecture over new just on that basis even if I had the choice. The range boost isn't significant enough to make that a deal breaker, especially with the range improvements that are ongoing.

The cells are not a downgrade, there's just fewer of them (by total mass) in the MYAWD than the larger MYLR pack, hence less max amps.

The tabless design should theoretically allow slightly higher currents on a per cell basis due to reduced resistive losses. Not clear if they've got that going yet or not. RIght now the 4680 cells seem to perform very very similar to an equivalent collection of 2170's.

 

[Ogre]

Everyone thinks I am cimplanting about not being assured of getting a MYLR with 4680 cells. I am complaining about having to completely pay for and take delivery of a car without knowing what the car is made of. I would be perfectly happy with a MYLR with the new FR castings and 2170 batteries. I would pass and cancel and reorder if told the car is the older design (front/rear assembly with additional 1700 welds). As long as I am buying a Model Y to replace my Model 3 I want one that has at least some of the improvements that Tesla has been trumpeting for quite some time. But to expect me to pay for and except a car that may or may not have some, none, or all, is just wrong. Tell me what it is and then let me decide Whether to buy it or not.

It doesn't matter if you are talking about the 4680 cells or the other things they are doing on the Texas assembly line.

Tesla is producing 5x more cars out of Fremont than Texas right now. They aren't going to shut that off because they have a better process in Texas until they can do so reasonably transparently.

There is no way to ensure you are getting a car from Texas unless you actually order a model which is only made in Texas. You can't actually order that right now.

FWIW, ALL Model Ys have eliminated more than half of those 1700 welds you are talking about. That number was talking about savings from both castings. There are quite a few other incremental refinements to the car since you bought yours. You will notice the difference.

 

[Polymer]

Everyone thinks I am cimplanting about not being assured of getting a MYLR with 4680 cells. I am complaining about having to completely pay for and take delivery of a car without knowing what the car is made of. I would be perfectly happy with a MYLR with the new FR castings and 2170 batteries. I would pass and cancel and reorder if told the car is the older design (front/rear assembly with additional 1700 welds). As long as I am buying a Model Y to replace my Model 3 I want one that has at least some of the improvements that Tesla has been trumpeting for quite some time. But to expect me to pay for and except a car that may or may not have some, none, or all, is just wrong. Tell me what it is and then let me decide Whether to buy it or not.

I don't think you're getting less of a car than what you signed up for. You might be getting "less" of a car than you thought would be here at this point in time....So the difference is really it wasn't what you thought, it wasn't that it isn't what was advertised.

The mobile connector and other stuff being removed even to customers that ordered awhile back, would be an issue for example...but if the cars didn't come with one and they suddenly decided to include it, that shouldn't be an issue.
Or when they put in a faster MCU..that shouldn't be an issue...

 

[Jersey_guy_202]

Everyone thinks I am cimplanting about not being assured of getting a MYLR with 4680 cells. I am complaining about having to completely pay for and take delivery of a car without knowing what the car is made of. I would be perfectly happy with a MYLR with the new FR castings and 2170 batteries. I would pass and cancel and reorder if told the car is the older design (front/rear assembly with additional 1700 welds). As long as I am buying a Model Y to replace my Model 3 I want one that has at least some of the improvements that Tesla has been trumpeting for quite some time. But to expect me to pay for and except a car that may or may not have some, none, or all, is just wrong. Tell me what it is and then let me decide Whether to buy it or not.

You are getting the exact car when you placed the order. Do you even know what advantages those new things might bring, from an end-user stand point? I don't believe you will even notice on day-to-day basis, it's more about manufacturing improvement and cost saving on Tesla part. AMD and new Michelin tires are much bigger deal, which you will be getting. Have 4680 will not make you enjoy the car more.

 

[Corndart]

Months ago they disclosed (Ryan Shane’s YouTube channel) that the 4860’s aren’t going to be incorporated as a means to achieve 500 mile range until well into 2023-2024. Tesla doesn’t want to piss off legacy customers and needs to ease into 4860 capacity gradually so as to not cannibalize the early (lower range) 4860 customers. Eventually, M3, MY, S, and X will all have 4860 cells with 500 mile range across all the different variations. They just have to do it gently. This works in Tesla’s favor anyway because they still need to get production ramped. The first LR 4860 cars will be software locked and get additional range granted over time to keep things fair. So 4860 LR and P cars will have 300ish mile range at the beginning even though they are capable of so much more, then eventually they will have 400ish mile range “unlocked” over software.. then after about 2-3 years after taking delivery the car will have full capacity (500ish) range enabled. Coupled with evolving feature updates etc, these folks are in for a new 2022-2023 car that literally is a range/feature gift that keeps on giving over a period of a few years. Pretty cool time to be a new Tesla (4860) owner coming up soon.

Who is "they"? Yet another Youtuber speculating isn't "disclosure".