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Model Y after Model 3
- Thread starter Watts 4 Me
- Start date
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I'd say 2019 at the earliest, probably 2020 if there're falcon wing doors involved. They might have a reveal late 2018 though...
strykeroz
Member
Interesting thoughts above. And they make sense. I was thinking far more optomistically, granted the platform is shared with the M3, and I hadn't considered it would have the falcon wing doors and therefore might be priced above the M3 in the same way MX is relative to MS.
Prior to reading this thread, since the prototype will be shown next year I was thinking we'd see the first MY roll out around the same time as the final reservations for M3 in 2018 (ie right hand drive M3)
Prior to reading this thread, since the prototype will be shown next year I was thinking we'd see the first MY roll out around the same time as the final reservations for M3 in 2018 (ie right hand drive M3)
The future of Tesla is in large part dependent on the Model 3 production launch going smoothly and ramping up quickly to meet the unprecedented demand as represented by hundreds of thousands of reservation deposits for a car that very few people have seen "in person", only the most basic information about it has been released, and no one outside of Tesla has driven.
I believe that the first Model 3 production line that is being built right now in the Fremont plant will be designed to only produce the Model 3 sedan vehicle, and not to also produce the Model Y SUV/CUV or whatever you want to call it.
It is true that currently the X and S are being built on the same production line, but S production started on its own dedicated line (of course long before the X design was finalized). It seems unlikely that Tesla would be able to, from the beginning, have the 3 production line capable of also producing the Y. That said, I do suspect that the Y design is farther along than many people imagine.
butchmank9
Member
There was talks along time ago that the Y would be coming out at the same time Model 3 does. So in my opinion they will be very close apart even though Elon said that his primary focus is on Model 3. So if this is the case I would rather get the Y other than the 3. My feeling is that the Y will be a better vehicle over all than the 3.
BluestarE3
Active Member
That was just idle speculation or wishful thinking on some people's part. Certainly not something Tesla or Musk had declared. Tesla will have their hands full just getting the Model 3 out in the timeframe and quantities promised.
I do agree that it will initially only able to produce the Model 3. But I do believe they will make it so they (relativity) easy can modify the production lines to incorporate the Model Y.
And to those who say the Model Y will not arrive earlier then 2020: By introducing the Model Y before production of the Model 3 they may see a lot of reservations for the 3 to convert to the Y, and therefor release some of the pressure that the 300k+ reservations has put on them. So I have a small guess that the Model Y will be shown before 1. July 2017. Maybe at the #2 event Elon has been talking about? Or maybe 1. March 2017? Production start 1->1½ year after Model 3. But yes, this is just my speculations.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I highly doubt this because, just as you mentioned, that would cannibalize Model 3 sales when Tesla needs money the most. It would be a really poor business move.
A better move is to let people buy up the Model 3, use that money to get to full production capabilities (end of 2018) at both Fremont and the Gigafactory, then release the Model Y. If they get their hands full too early (production wise) then there could be trouble. People can either buy both or let the Model 3 go to the used car market (making it more affordable for others).
Then, there're people like me that would love to have the Model 3 (for me) and potentially the Model Y (for a family). There's no way I could buy them too close to each other. I'm not made of money. If I had to decide on only one and if both were available then I might choose the Model Y. If I did that, then I might be tempted to keep the car(s) we have and I'd have a hard time justifying a Model 3.
I, myself, would figure out a way to get both, but I'd guess there are some people who if they had the Model Y would not purchase the Model 3, but if they had the Model 3 would still purchase the Model Y. (If that makes sense)
I don't know that they'll want anything to rain on the M3 parade. I think you'll see the MY reveal after M3 production starts, so maybe October or November or next year, or even early 2018. With production starting in 2019.
Even an early 2018 reveal (if they start taking reservations then) would let people transfer their M3 reservation.
As I said, it was just my guess, and I can't say anything for sure about what they will do. But on the other hand, they have enough reservations for Model 3 to about one year of fully ramped up production at Fremont (they will still produce Model S+X there) and this is only after unveil event #1. Elon did expect - as I interpret his comments on Tweeter - (much) more reservations after unveil event #2. So if 100k reservations translates to Model Y reservations they will probably still have their hand full to produce all the Model 3 they can, but some of their customers had said "It's ok to wait one (or two) more year, I rather take the Model Y".
So they will still get the same money from the production at the Fremont, and the batteries from GF don't care a bit of witch car they end up in - 3 or Y.
From my point of view the only negative here is that they sooner will have to spend time and money to prepare the production lines at Fremont to produce Model Y.
But you may have a good point that it will be a poor business move, I'm not in the production business.
... and then there is people like me that would love a Model 3 station wagon. Yes, I can do well with the sedan (but would prefer a hatchback as "almost station wagon") or with the CUV. But in general I don't like SUV/CUV's
Have seen them both I could make an educated choice between them, but if not I will go for the Model 3 - and maybe later punch my self for not waiting a bit longer And no, if I get the Model 3 i will NOT sell it to get the Model Y if that is a better car for me. Maybe get it when Model 3 reach it's "end of life"? But I plan to keep it for a loooooong time
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Maybe instead of a mini-SUV, the Model Y will finally be the Shooting Brake design I was hoping Model 3 was going to be (think BMW sport wagon).
While Tesla doesn't like to combine reveals, I do think the Model Y reveal #1 will be at the same time as Model 3 Reveal #2.
While Tesla doesn't like to combine reveals, I do think the Model Y reveal #1 will be at the same time as Model 3 Reveal #2.
T3slaTulips
Member
I don't even want to see a Y prototype before a 1/2 million Model 3's have rolled off the line. After that show us the Y prototype and my wife will place her reservation.
EV-lutioin
Active Member
I would bet they reveal the Model Y just before Model 3 is available, and announce late 2018 deliveries (Tesla time).
Genshi
Member
I'm guessing 3rd or 4th Q 2017 reveal and late 2018/early 2019 shipments. My reasoning is twofold.
First: It gives them maximum time to complete the Model ≡ ramp and allows them to focus on that and Tesla Energy products.
Second: It likely cannibalizes some of the Model 3 sales which allows them to hedge a bit on what's likely to be an even more staggering number of reservations after the second ≡ reveal.
Given that it'll be built on the Model ≡ platform, the actual design/ramp shouldn't be nearly as time intensive as the Model S, X or ≡. And owing to Part 2 of the Master Plan it sounded like there would be significantly less time between release dates on the next few Tesla Models.
First: It gives them maximum time to complete the Model ≡ ramp and allows them to focus on that and Tesla Energy products.
Second: It likely cannibalizes some of the Model 3 sales which allows them to hedge a bit on what's likely to be an even more staggering number of reservations after the second ≡ reveal.
Given that it'll be built on the Model ≡ platform, the actual design/ramp shouldn't be nearly as time intensive as the Model S, X or ≡. And owing to Part 2 of the Master Plan it sounded like there would be significantly less time between release dates on the next few Tesla Models.
Garlan Garner
Banned
How long? I don't think its a matter of time. I think Model Y discussions will occur once 1 million M3's have been produced.
Tesla does not currently have revenue to do anything until they sell the 3's. This has been discussed on the quarterly conference calls.
Tesla does not currently have revenue to do anything until they sell the 3's. This has been discussed on the quarterly conference calls.
