Model Y after Model 3

[SΞXY P100D]

As long as the Y has no negative impact on the 3, I'm all for having both released around the same time. It would only cause a net positive increase in sales as the SUV/CUV/Crossover market is huge.

Personally speaking, I would prefer to have a choice!

 

[Garlan Garner]

As long as the Y has no negative impact on the 3, I'm all for having both released around the same time. It would only cause a net positive increase in sales as the SUV/CUV/Crossover market is huge.

Personally speaking, I would prefer to have a choice!

I would like that also, however Tesla has already provided their focus point to their investors. Fremont is getting updated to M3 production. M3 is where Tesla's investors expectations reside.

 

[SΞXY P100D]

I'm an investor. I vote to release both 3 & Y ASAP!

And BTW with the gigafactory's revolutionary manufacturing capabilities, I believe this will be possible much sooner than anticipated.

 

[MassModel3]

I don't know that they'll want anything to rain on the M3 parade.

I agree that there's no way the Y is going to rain on the 3's parade. No way. Unless they are both ready to roll off the assembly line on the same first day of production (surprise!), it won't happen. And if the Y does, as EM once tweeted, have falcon wing doors, that will cause production delays simply due to the additional complexity. EM has also tweeted that they will not be introducing any production complexities for the 3, so it makes no sense to introduce the Y at the same time, especially when you consider that fact that the X is possibly the most technologically advanced automobile on the planet, and the FWD system was a major source of complexity.

The Y may begin getting more attention in 2018, but don't expect to see it mass produced until somewhere around late 2019 at best.

 

[tashtibet]

I want to know how much will it cost-as the price of the battery suppose to drop around 2020 I am excited more so with falcon wings but the price will be a big factor to be a mass market.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Teslas priority right now is this:

1. Model 3
2. Full autonomy.

That's what Elon reported to investors. If you own stock (investor), you should read/listen to the quarterly report. Tesla can't randomly change its goals and/or focus. Investors would quickly run away.

 

[SΞXY P100D]

Tesla can't randomly change its goals and/or focus. Investors would quickly run away.

Good! I hope it happens and the stock goes down so I can buy more shares.

 

[EV-lutioin]

How long? I don't think its a matter of time. I think Model Y discussions will occur once 1 million M3's have been produced.

Tesla does not currently have revenue to do anything until they sell the 3's. This has been discussed on the quarterly conference calls.

Probably true, but it seems lack of revenue has never slowed Tesla down.

 

[BluestarE3]

Probably true, but it seems lack of revenue has never slowed Tesla down.

It's not revenue they lack, it's profits.

 

[Garlan Garner]

It's not revenue they lack, it's profits.

That's absolutely correct. Its profits.

Heavy investors such as Fidelity Investments are watching the progress of Teslas goals. They and other investors know that if Tesla reaches their top 2 goals then they would have made one of the greatest investments ever.

Tesla has reached all of its previous 6 goals and the next too are within their grasp.
Goals
1. M3 mass production car
2. Full Autonomy.

After that - googobs of profit.

 

[SΞXY P100D]

Quick review of the timeline for new Tesla products...

TM3 was unveiled last March and is scheduled to begin deliveries in late 2017. That's about a 20 month lead time.

The minibus and semi are said to be revealed mid next year so that would mean 2019 deliveries based on the same lead time.

Where does that leave the Model Y? You guessed it, 2018 delivery!

The Tesla Semi and minibus will be unveiled in 2017, Elon Musk confirms

And that's only half the story. There are more developments on the Tesla Energy front, especially with the impending SolarCity merger. Tesla even changed one word in its mission statement recently from transport to energy. Another critical keyword accelerate leads me to believe that they aren't slowing down but rather speeding up... building machines that build machines, greatly multiplying their product line offerings while ramping up manufacturing capacity at enormous speed.

Tesla just updated its mission statement

Good times! $$$$$$$$$$

 

[JeffK]

Quick review of the timeline for new Tesla products...

TM3 was unveiled last March and is scheduled to begin deliveries in late 2017. That's about a 20 month lead time.

The minibus and semi are said to be revealed mid next year so that would mean 2019 deliveries based on the same lead time.

Where does that leave the Model Y? You guessed it, 2018 delivery!

The Tesla Semi and minibus will be unveiled in 2017, Elon Musk confirms

And that's only half the story. There are more developments on the Tesla Energy front, especially with the impending SolarCity merger. Tesla even changed one word in its mission statement recently from transport to energy. Another critical keyword accelerate leads me to believe that they aren't slowing down but rather speeding up... building machines that build machines, greatly multiplying their product line offerings while ramping up manufacturing capacity at enormous speed.

Tesla just updated its mission statement

Good times! $$$$$$$$$$

Your logic there doesn't actually follow because there's been zero announcement (AFAIK) about a Model Y reveal and when it would take place, therefore you can't even venture a guess as to delivery date.

Plus the article you link to mentions the Model Y after Model 3 production is ramped up. It might take all of 2018 to meet their production throughput goals. Meaning a reveal after that time, then deliveries a few months later. It's entirely possible of a reveal late 2018... but there's no possible way deliveries will happen in 2018 for the Model Y.

 

[SΞXY P100D]

We're all speculating here. Just my hopeful WAG.

I can imagine part 2 of the reveal, and beyond... Elon Musk on stage announcing the Model Y prototype, how new GF manufacturing processes, sharing a common platform with the Model 3, and the design being much further along than publicized allow for 2018 Model Y deliveries to be possible... new comprehensive solar energy/battery storage solutions for commercial/utility companies and for the home with solar panels that beautify your house unlike regular solar panels of today... a ride sharing business model for car owners which takes advantage of full autonomous driving... TSLA stock taking a temporary nosedive on "lack of focus", "that's impossible" and "that's too expensive" buzz beforehand, and then bouncing back to new highs after Chowdhry's analysis of Tesla being worth over $1 trillion before 2025... my stock portfolio skyrocketing...
KA-CHING KA-CHHHHHIIIIIIIIIIIIIINGGGGGG!! $$$$$

 

[Model 3]

It's entirely possible of a reveal late 2018... but there's no possible way deliveries will happen in 2018 for the Model Y.

Please keep in mind that Elon has stated that Tesla is aiming for a one new car model every year after the "affordable Gen.III car". I think he said it in about 2013 (before it was named Model E and later Model 3)? So keep an open mind about a new car (whatever that car may be) in 2018 if the 2017 release of Model 3 goes as planed.

... but on the other hand - they will not say "We shall have a new car model out in 2018 no matter what the cost is!".

 

[JeffK]

Please keep in mind that Elon has stated that Tesla is aiming for a one new car model every year after the "affordable Gen.III car". I think he said it in about 2013 (before it was named Model E and later Model 3)? So keep an open mind about a new car (whatever that car may be) in 2018 if the 2017 release of Model 3 goes as planed.

... but on the other hand - they will not say "We shall have a new car model out in 2018 no matter what the cost is!".

There's a lot at stake in 2018, the company has said they will try to produce 500,000 EVs total with ~400,000 of those being Model 3. Taking downtime to reconfigure the production lines with the necessary changes to support Model Y doesn't seem like a wise strategy.

In addition, assuming Model 3 reveal 2 increases interest even more (and Elon thinks it will), they might receive enough pre-orders orders to allocate all of 2017 and 2018 Model 3 production capacity.

Can you imagine how angry people would be if Model Y starts coming off the lines and Model 3 pre-orders haven't been filled yet?

Unless the second reveal has a Model Y and they are doing them in tandem (some model 3 res holders might switch), I don't see a single Model Y being delivered in the 2018 timeframe.

 

[Model 3]

the company has said they will try to produce 500,000 EVs total with ~400,000 of those being Model 3.

Just for the record: They have not stated how many of this 500k is expected to be Model 3, but yes - about 350-400k is a good estimate.

Unless the second reveal has a Model Y and they are doing them in tandem (some model 3 res holders might switch),

And that is more or less exactly what I have been guessing at/predicting earlier Model Y at the second reveal with a production start one year later and let reservation holders move their reservation from 3 to Y if they find that this is a better car for their usage - and thereby telling Tesla "it is OK to wait for one more year" and therefor put some pressure of Tesla in the Model 3 ramp.

But what I was saying in the post you quoted was only about what Elon had said a long time ago. No one here knows if that still is the plan, or if he/Tesla has changed his/their mind about this. And yes, the number of Model 3 reservations may by it self be a reason to rethink this strategy. I just say "keep an open mind".

 

[JeffK]

Just for the record: They have not stated how many of this 500k is expected to be Model 3, but yes - about 350-400k is a good estimate.

Elon has stated publically how many of the 500k is going to be Model 3 (recently) although I cannot find the source. During the Q2 financials call he stated 2000 cars a week for S/X was a maintainable number and that they hoped to do a little better internally. (roughly 100,000 to 120,000 Model S/X per year)

JB Straubel during the gigafactory launch said 500k Model 3s not just total EVs, but that was probably a slip of the tongue.

The next steps are Model 3, Full Autonomy, and Model Y.... probably in that order.

Here's a couple quotes from Elon.

So, the focus really is on Model 3 and followed by full autonomy as – well it's our two priorities.

So there's a lot we can do before we actually dive into ramp CapEx, and we won't do that for any products until after Model 3's in high production.

Yeah. I mean, also to be clear like the priority vehicle development after the Model 3 would be the Model Y, I guess, the compact SUV, because that's also a car that where we expect to see demand in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 unit per year level. So it's the obvious priority after the Model 3.

 

[Model 3]

(roughly 100,000 to 120,000 Model S/X per year)

The numbers I have seen is a bit more ruff, about 100-150k. But this is just nit-picking, we do agree on the about ballpark numbers

but that was probably a slip of the tongue.

Would not be the first time

So there's a lot we can do before we actually dive into ramp CapEx, and we won't do that for any products until after Model 3's in high production.

This was new information to me. Thanks

Btw: the two other quotes you gave does somewhat beat it other to death on the case of witch of Autopilot or Model Y that will be prioritized after Model 3 But I do not see this as one or the other, it will not be the same persons that develop the Autopilot and the Model Y.

 

[JeffK]

I'm getting married next month, but when we start having kids I sure as heck want a Model Y with fully autonomous capabilities (in addition to a Model 3). I can't wait!

 

[Model 3]

Congratulations

Can't wait for a picture of you two (++) in front of your Model 3+Y