Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[tangible1]

I like Tesmanian, they consistently scoop most of the other sites. Teslarati have only just figured it out.

No sale for me. Armand is on the same 'sources', or fewer, as Electrek or Teslerati. And I can't stand the slobber-speak when Armand blabbers out his 'news'.
But they all parrot the same hype, maybe one before another.

I've said many times that Tesla runs a Master Class on internet marketing.
Despite seeming responsive and proactive, make no mistake....Tesla totally controls what gets out and when.
No "leaks", it's all planned. Who they give it out to first just seems to rotate.

 

[Twiglett]

No sale for me. Armand is on the same 'sources', or fewer, as Electrek or Teslerati. And I can't stand the slobber-speak when Armand blabbers out his 'news'.
But they all parrot the same hype, maybe one before another.

I've said many times that Tesla runs a Master Class on internet marketing.
Despite seeming responsive and proactive, make no mistake....Tesla totally controls what gets out and when.
No "leaks", it's all planned. Who they give it out to first just seems to rotate.

Pretty sure we are not talking about the same site.
I've never seen anyone called Armand write any news article on Tesmanian or appear in their staff list.
Its Eva on Tesla news and Evelyn for SpaceX news, no "Armand" anywhere to be seen.

 

[Snow Drift]

Have there been anymore SR Ys out of Austin lately? I can't see any at the inventory website.

 

[tangible1]

Have there been anymore SR Ys out of Austin lately? I can't see any at the inventory website.

Tesla doesn't sell MY-SR cars in North America. I assume you mean MY-AWD.

Giga Austin has a visible stockpile of some 320 4680 structural battery packs, which were somehow conveniently placed near windows and video'd a few weeks ago.
My personal presumption is that Tesla is going to make another limited production run of MY-AWD cars soon.
These are not available for general ordering on the Tesla website, so they're only for employee orders, or maybe some commercial entity (Hertz ?).
My guess is they'll do these runs maybe quarterly. Sometimes they have asked current order holders if they'd take an AWD rather than LR. Rare.....

China sells a bunch of MY-RWD (not AWD) cars, using LFP battery chemistries with Std Range, but not using front castings or structural battery packs.
The Texas MY-AWD uses 4680 structural packs with both F+R castings. Arguably the next gen MY chassis, but for now, only the AWD variant is built that way.

With all the noise coming from different directions, it's easy to lose track of what's where. The Zheng post quoted earlier on this thread is from a twitter user in China.
Giga China is clearly the biggest factory in Tesla's quiver, has gotten bigger recently, and is a precursor of what can expected from Tesla. But not immediately in NA or Europe.

 

[Snow Drift]

Tesla doesn't sell MY-SR cars in North America. I assume you mean MY-AWD.

Giga Austin has a visible stockpile of some 320 4680 structural battery packs, which were somehow conveniently placed near windows and video'd a few weeks ago.
My personal presumption is that Tesla is going to make another limited production run of MY-AWD cars soon.
These are not available for general ordering on the Tesla website, so they're only for employee orders, or maybe some commercial entity (Hertz ?).
My guess is they'll do these runs maybe quarterly. Sometimes they have asked current order holders if they'd take an AWD rather than LR. Rare.....

China sells a bunch of MY-RWD (not AWD) cars, using LFP battery chemistries with Std Range, but not using front castings or structural battery packs.
The Texas MY-AWD uses 4680 structural packs with both F+R castings. Arguably the next gen MY chassis, but for now, only the AWD variant is built that way.

With all the noise coming from different directions, it's easy to lose track of what's where. The Zheng post quoted earlier on this thread is from a twitter user in China.
Giga China is clearly the biggest factory in Tesla's quiver, has gotten bigger recently, and is a precursor of what can expected from Tesla. But not immediately in NA or Europe.

Yes, I meant MY AWD. We would happily move down to a lower range than 300+. Hopefully they make it an option in 2023.

 

[DanCar]

20K Model Y's built at Giga Texas according to Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586693920859234304

Comment in the investor thread:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Better than the bit lying Lopez did on Katy Tur's show on MSNBC yesterday... I wanted to wring her neck through the TV screen. Grrrr... Lopez is in the category of humans that are so stupid, they can't even conceive how stupid they are. There's no hope for Lopez.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[kithytom]

 

[DanCar]

Electrek says a reliable source says that Tesla is planning 75K Model Y's from Giga Texas in Q1. That would be an average run rate of 5K per week.

Tesla (TSLA) is planning massive output from Giga Texas in Q1 2023

Tesla (TSLA) is planning a massive ramp-up in Model Y production output out of Gigafactory Texas in Q1 2023.

electrek.co

 

[tangible1]

Electrek says a reliable source says that Tesla is planning 75K Model Y's from Giga Texas in Q1. That would be an average run rate of 5K per week.

Tesla (TSLA) is planning massive output from Giga Texas in Q1 2023

Tesla (TSLA) is planning a massive ramp-up in Model Y production output out of Gigafactory Texas in Q1 2023.

electrek.co

closer to 5750 per week to achieve that. I'm thinking they get to that RATE by EoQ Q1.
that's a serious ramp from the current 10-1500, or even maybe 2K/wk rate now.

 

[voxel]

closer to 5750 per week to achieve that. I'm thinking they get to that RATE by EoQ Q1.
that's a serious ramp from the current 10-1500, or even maybe 2K/wk rate now.

The sad part is... still 2170 cells. Where are the 4680 Ys???

 

[dhanson865]

The sad part is... still 2170 cells. Where are the 4680 Ys???

I don't care if it's 2170 or 4680 as long as they make enough to bring back the on the menu SR and lower the price (after tax credit, I don't care if they raise or hold the price pre tax credit)

 

[voxel]

I don't care if it's 2170 or 4680 as long as they make enough to bring back the on the menu SR and lower the price (after tax credit, I don't care if they raise or hold the price pre tax credit)

Tesla spent years and billions to manufacture 4680 cells and yet they are unable to in large quantities. Something is amiss. I'd say the same about GM's Ultium cells.

I think battery production is as complicated as chip production.

 

[tangible1]

The sad part is... still 2170 cells. Where are the 4680 Ys???

4680 is a work in progress and still doesn't meet the energy density of 2170.
the benefit currently is entirely to Telsa - they save costs.
but over time, the 4680 will become a standard and exceed other approaches.

Meanwhile, Tesla can't make CyberTruck without 4680, the Semi needs 4680, so....
MY is likely to largely stay with 2170 for the near term, only sell 4680 in a premium model configuration.

The production process for 4680 remains challenged.

 

[dhanson865]

Tesla spent years and billions to manufacture 4680 cells and yet they are unable to in large quantities. Something is amiss. I'd say the same about GM's Ultium cells.

I think battery production is as complicated as chip production.

They are about to triple the production of Model Y at Austin. You think they suddenly got 3x as many 2170 cells?

Or is it that they are producing more 4680 cells in the near future and are continuing to use the 2170 supply they had? Maybe supply of both is increasing, but I find it hard to believe 4680 production is flat. I say it's increasing...

 

[SageBrush]

They are about to triple the production of Model Y at Austin. You think they suddenly got 3x as many 2170 cells?

Or is it that they are producing more 4680 cells in the near future and are continuing to use the 2170 supply they had? Maybe supply of both is increasing, but I find it hard to believe 4680 production is flat. I say it's increasing...

Agreed. And someone must be optimistic about 4680 production since both CT and Semi are on the public ramp for volume production in 2023.

 

[cdub]

Semi needs 4680,

Pretty sure I read that semi is currently 2170

 

[tangible1]

They are about to triple the production of Model Y at Austin. You think they suddenly got 3x as many 2170 cells?

Or is it that they are producing more 4680 cells in the near future and are continuing to use the 2170 supply they had? Maybe supply of both is increasing, but I find it hard to believe 4680 production is flat. I say it's increasing...

We'll see in the actual production mix going forward, but yes, they likely are getting lots more 2170 cells.
That's a much easier lift than growing 4680 production to meet every need. Remember GigaNevada makes a lot of 2170's.
4680 production just isn't all that, and the dry electrode process is still a WiP. And the Cathode Plant is still being built.
So unless they've redesigned the CT and Semi, those demand 4680, and will consume the bulk of production for a while.

There are videos (Joe Tegtmeyer) providing early morning views inside the Austin Gigafactory building.
4680 battery packs are shown, numbering perhaps 3-400. So they're making them and storing them for now.
Also, outside the casting area at Austin, very few Front castings are stacked, which are necessary for using the 4680 packs.
They appear to have used up the Front castings for now.

I can see Tesla making a MYP configuration with 4680 sometime next year, as that's a relatively low volume car.
The F+R casting and structural pack make a better, more consistent chassis, and people might pay a premium price for it.

But to grow the MY production volume at Austin so dramatically is only going to happen with 2170 for now.

I have no doubt Tesla will get there; they have a powerful cost incentive to do so.
It's just Elon Time, not internet blog expectation time.

 

[tangible1]

Pretty sure I read that semi is currently 2170

you could be right, we might find out tonight when 1st deliveries are made (8PM EST)
Here's an article today saying they think they know.....

Tesla | Semi | EV Truck

Tesla is set to deliver its highly-anticipated all-electric Semi on Dec. 1. Will the truck live up to the hype?

www.autobodynews.com

But 4680 supply is still tight regardless. No mention anywhere of CT using anything but 4680.

 

[Bikeman]

The 4680 Austin production area is inside the main building on the north end, but is still unfinished, but hardware being placed for near-future assembly. Meanwhile, the cathode building to the north-east of the main building looks about half done. Tesla is planning for lots and lots of battery production there as well, if only sub-assembly of supply. By the end of Q1 2023 much of the machinery will be in place to make this all happen. The cars are ramping; the battery production will need to also slowly ramp.

 

[Fairchild]

.....and reduces prices

Tesla (TSLA) gives $3,750 discount for Model 3/Y in the US this month

Tesla (TSLA) is giving a $3,750 discount, which it is calling a “credit,” for every Model 3/Y vehicle delivered in the US in December.

electrek.co

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