Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[CyberGus]

The insane car market in 2021-2022 was something I've never seen in my lifetime. Seems very reasonable when all those unusual confluence of factors disappeared that prices would fall back. Sellers that don't discount prices will have lower sales and inventory building up.

Exactly! I don't believe the demand for Teslas has waned, but that the insane shortages of the last year are coming back into balance.

 

[Mrbrock]

U r right about $60k was original price for AWD, than Tesla raised it to $62k.

I am using my suggested (guessed prices of $55k, $61k. Not sure where u r getting confused.

AWD: $55k , $47.5k (with Tax credit)
LR: $61k, $56.5( with Tax credit, 3 row)

This is my suggestion/prediction. May or may not happen. It's just what I think. By no means it's perfect.

It's simple if they lower prices of all models by ~$5k, Everything will line up. 279 range MY used to be $60k.

MY AWD: $55k
MYLR: $61k
MYP: $64k


Don't forget there are plenty of Tesla buyers who don't qualify for Tax credit. So they would prefer to get MY LR or MYP. Win Win..

You said lower the price of all models by $5k.

Therefore:

MY AWD $62k-$5k = $57k
MY LR AWD $66k-$5k = $61k
MYP $69k-$5k = $64k

The confusion is you saying drop all prices by $5k yet you want to drop the MY AWD price from months ago by $5k but want to use current pricing for the LR AWD and MYP. If you are going to use $60k, then use the prices for all 3 models at that time (I believe $64k and $67k).

 

[acpd]

You said lower the price of all models by $5k.

Therefore:

MY AWD $62k-$5k = $57k
MY LR AWD $66k-$5k = $61k
MYP $69k-$5k = $64k

The confusion is you saying drop all prices by $5k yet you want to drop the MY AWD price from months ago by $5k but want to use current pricing for the LR AWD and MYP. If you are going to use $60k, then use the prices for all 3 models at that time (I believe $64k and $67k).

Sure let's go with that. Again these are approximately prices. $55k is needed for Tax credit, others would be more flexible, depends on demand.

 

[Mrbrock]

Sure let's go with that. Again these are approximately prices. $55k is needed for Tax credit, others would be more flexible, depends on demand.

This year the tax credit doesn't do Tesla any good. Some Tesla buyers, yes, Tesla the company, not directly. Next year, Tesla will get the $7500 as a point of sale discount.

Someone buying a car right now, will see the tax benefit after April 2024. Someone buying a car Jan. 1, 2024 will get the benefit immediately, 4 months before someone buying a car right now. In terms of loans or paying cash, there is no benefit to anyone buying a car in 2023, they still need to pay the same amount up front right now whether they and the car are eligible for the tax incentive or not.

 

[Sunshine Speed]

I think Tesla simply lets people order 7 seats if they want the tax credit - most Model Y customers have too high income to qualify anyway.

The IRA tax credit income limit is $300,000 income for a married couple, and the health insurance premiums and 401k retirement is deducted from paychecks first, so more like $330,000 limit for a married couple. You think half of Model Y buyers make that much money? I'd guess 10% or less. You might be right in San Francisco or Washington DC or New York City, but for overall US I disagree. Model Y is selling in VERY high quantities. Bottom line : Tesla will likely make adjustments so that the 5-seat Model Y costs $55K or less, I'm guessing mid-January. Probably the Austin 4680 standard range version. Not sure if AWD or RWD.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

The IRA tax credit income limit is $300,000 income for a married couple, and the health insurance premiums and 401k retirement is deducted from paychecks first, so more like $330,000 limit for a married couple. You think half of Model Y buyers make that much money? I'd guess 10% or less. You might be right in San Francisco or Washington DC or New York City, but for overall US I disagree. Model Y is selling in VERY high quantities. Bottom line : Tesla will likely make adjustments so that the 5-seat Model Y costs $55K or less, I'm guessing mid-January. Probably the Austin 4680 standard range version. Not sure if AWD or RWD.

I didn't say you HAD to make more than the 150k/300k limits to buy a Tesla Model Y - just that a LOT of people who actually DO buy one are above that.

 

[Sunshine Speed]

I didn't say you HAD to make more than the 150k/300k limits to buy a Tesla Model Y - just that a LOT of people who actually DO buy one are above that.

No, you said that MOST Model Y buyers won't quality for tax credit because their income is too high. You have stated this other times as well. I quoted you. You are saying that 50% of Model Y buyers won't get the tax credit anyway. I'm saying that's wrong, and it's likely under 10%. Therefore this tax credit really really matters and the Y 5-seater price needs to get to $55K.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

No, you said that MOST Model Y buyers won't quality for tax credit because their income is too high. You have stated this other times as well. I quoted you. You are saying that 50% of Model Y buyers won't get the tax credit anyway. I'm saying that's wrong, and it's likely under 10%. Therefore this tax credit really really matters and the Y 5-seater price needs to get to $55K.

You seem to be forgetting that lots of Tesla customers are not married...

 

[ucmndd]

You seem to be forgetting that lots of Tesla customers are not married...

Where are you manifesting this statistic from? I mean, certainly some are. But what defines “lots”?

 

[ucmndd]

Next year, Tesla will get the $7500 as a point of sale discount.

I don’t think the way you’re thinking this is gonna work is accurate.

Tesla gets no direct financial benefit in either case.

 

[Mrbrock]

I don’t think the way you’re thinking this is gonna work is accurate.

Tesla gets no direct financial benefit in either case.

In 2024, dealers will get $7500 from the government if the buyer elects that option. Say Tesla wants to charge $55,000 for MY AWD. The buyer can opt for the $7500 to go to Tesla so they only have to pay $47,500 out of pocket. Tesla still gets $55,000.

My point is that people who can't afford $55,000 up front by having to wait at least 4 and up to 16+ months to get the tax rebate will now have that $7500 go directly to the dealer/manufacturer. Or have monthly payments based on the full $55,000 price. I apologize if it sounded otherwise.

 

[Sunshine Speed]

Tesla dropped the Model Y Long Range price by 20 percent from $67K to $53K now. This is $46K after federal tax credit. Wow.

 

[Mrbrock]

And delivery has to be before March when new guidance on battery mineral sourcing might eliminate many vehicles.

Crazy price drop.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Wow. That's gonna stir things up

 

[pdx_m3s]

The magnitude of this price drop is a massive flex by Tesla against the competition. I just ordered a MSM LR Y.

 

[dhanson865]

MY AWD needs to be between the Blue and yellow lines, It's way more than 1k less than the yellow line.

For now it can start in the low 50s but it's going to end up below 50 thousand, similar to the old LR RWD price with a solid red line on the left.

For that matter the LR AWD will end up in the low 50s as well (when the MY AWD is in the 40s) .

and the Performance will drop back down into the low 60s.

View attachment 894009

As I said, time to move back to old prices.

 

[pdx_m3s]

As I said, time to move back to old prices.

So many aspects of the economy have completely roundtripped to pre-covid levels. It's been a wild ride.

 

[Bikeman]

So many aspects of the economy have completely roundtripped to pre-covid levels. It's been a wild ride.

What we need is eggs to drop in price. They've been 70% higher than a year ago. That might help. I know this is off-topic, but yes, the economy is thoroughly messed up. Oh, and values of 401K's need to rise back up to where they were 1.3 years ago. If that happens, I can sleep easier after reading the Tesla news today.

I had a nice very long fun drive yesterday in the new Y. Got 233 Wh/mi. Not bad. And I charged back up at home saving me the SC local prices. I need to chill out after all this Tesla price change crap.

 

[Mrbrock]

Couple other notes with price drops.

MSM is back to being a $1000 option, only PWM is included at no extra cost.

The forgotten child will become more forgotten. MY AWD only $2,000 less (vs $4k prior). 61 more miles for $2k extra? If 4680 and the two megacasts are supposed to reduce production costs, this should be much lower than the LR AWD and P version by a significant margin. Guess they haven't cracked that nut yet.

And the

 

[X Fan]

The IRA tax credit income limit is $300,000 income for a married couple, and the health insurance premiums and 401k retirement is deducted from paychecks first, so more like $330,000 limit for a married couple. You think half of Model Y buyers make that much money? I'd guess 10% or less. You might be right in San Francisco or Washington DC or New York City, but for overall US I disagree. Model Y is selling in VERY high quantities. Bottom line : Tesla will likely make adjustments so that the 5-seat Model Y costs $55K or less, I'm guessing mid-January. Probably the Austin 4680 standard range version. Not sure if AWD or RWD.

Good call......