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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

If this is accurate, they are a bit further behind than we had hoped.



Thats March deliveries for people , about what I thought. I assume the first shipments will all be demo cars going to the showrooms and they will be a few weeks before that
 

advocate8

Active Member
Nov 12, 2019
1,009
1,502
Maryland
Thats March deliveries for people , about what I thought. I assume the first shipments will all be demo cars going to the showrooms and they will be a few weeks before that
Yep... a trickle in March at best. If I had no other information to work from than today’s drone stuff, I would swear Austin is a good six months from production at best. Elon’s going to have to pull some believable facts out of a hat Wednesday on timelines for new products. They are off in too many directions right now. They need to quash two or three projects and bear down on the Model 2.

And as to their service problems and service backlogs, no fixes seem imminent and its gonna get a lot worse when Tesla doubles the number of cars it has on the road now, which won’t take long,.
 
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Yep... a trickle in March at best. If I had no other information to work from than today’s drone stuff, I would swear Austin is a good six months from production at best. Elon’s going to have to pull some believable facts out of a hat Wednesday on timelines for new products. They are off in too many directions right now. They need to quash two or three projects and bear down on the Model 2.

And as to their service problems and service backlogs, no fixes seem imminent and its gonna get a lot worse when Tesla doubles the number of cars it has on the road now, which won’t take long,.
Why is everyone treating Austin factory as if they are starting a whole new model and building cars for the first time. Once you have done it couple times, it is much shorter time frame to ramp up as you learn from previous failures.
 

Budshark

MYP|Wht|Blk|OD 10/20|EDD 2/1-2/5 VIN: 3643xx
Oct 18, 2021
336
562
St. Louis
Why is everyone treating Austin factory as if they are starting a whole new model and building cars for the first time. Once you have done it couple times, it is much shorter time frame to ramp up as you learn from previous failures.
Because it’s new equipment that each has to be installed, tested, calibrated. And then you have to do the same at each process transition point. In other words - it’s hard.
 
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They need to quash two or three projects and bear down on the Model 2.
I'd like to see them bear down on the Y and 3! Just in my test drive I found that the cruise control was completely squirrelly, and the rain-sensing wipers didn't work. I drove for decades without either of those features, so it was not a deal killer, but having had them work nicely in other cars I'd like to have them smoothly functional in my new Y.
 
I believe Tesla is the ONLY manufacturer in CA. My buddy runs a body shop and informed me that CA has very strict regulations against using oil-based paint. The paint used in CA is supposed to be water-based. I'm not entirely sure but I believe Austin and Berlin won't have the same regulations. That might be one of the main reasons Elon hypes up the paint jobs they'll have. Again, I'm only speculating on the last part but you never know.

Yup, this again is exactly what I read in the past... and it makes sense.

One interesting side-effec
Why is everyone treating Austin factory as if they are starting a whole new model and building cars for the first time. Once you have done it couple times, it is much shorter time frame to ramp up as you learn from previous failures.
Well if they make a Y Performance it may have significantly better performance due to the lower weight
 
If this is accurate, they are a bit further behind than we had hoped.

Let the order holds begin. Get ready for some cancelation emails from Tesla coming soon if you're on hold.
Hopefully Elon can clear things up on Wednesday but he will probably say Giga Texas will be fully running in TWO WEEKS. lol
Just to be safe I'm gonna put my cyber truck order on hold to be sure I get a Giga Texas model.
 
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Let the order holds begin. Get ready for some cancelation emails from Tesla coming soon if you're on hold.
Hopefully Elon can clear things up on Wednesday but he will probably say Giga Texas will be fully running in TWO WEEKS. lol
Just to be safe I'm gonna put my cyber truck order on hold to be sure I get a Giga Texas model.
The only place the cyber truck will be made is Austin.
 
Why is everyone treating Austin factory as if they are starting a whole new model and building cars for the first time. Once you have done it couple times, it is much shorter time frame to ramp up as you learn from previous failures.
Not Really.....
The product coming out of Austin is almost certainly a new build - the MY chassis v2.0
This is a different animal than the MY product currently coming out of Fremont. It should be noted that Fremont will soon be converting to build the new chassis as well.
PRIMARY DIFFERENCES
1. Both Front and Rear Megacasts on a Structural Battery Pack. The current chassis has only the Rear megacast and a standard non-structural battery pack.
2. 440lbs lower weight - the use of megacasts F+R plus the battery pack as a structural element of the chassis saves 10% weight (current build at 4450lbs).
3. The v2.0 chassis will have improved fit / finish, panel gaps more consistent, due to having molded major chassis parts compared to stamped steel welded / bonded parts
4. 4680 vs 2170 batteries. Fewer cells required for same energy, saves weight. Battery pack uses cells as structural elements, vs over-built 2170 pack, saves weight
5. 1/3 fewer robots needed for the assembly process, faster / cheaper process, battery margins stay in-house, saves costs.
 
Not Really.....
The product coming out of Austin is almost certainly a new build - the MY chassis v2.0
This is a different animal than the MY product currently coming out of Fremont. It should be noted that Fremont will soon be converting to build the new chassis as well.
PRIMARY DIFFERENCES
1. Both Front and Rear Megacasts on a Structural Battery Pack. The current chassis has only the Rear megacast and a standard non-structural battery pack.
2. 440lbs lower weight - the use of megacasts F+R plus the battery pack as a structural element of the chassis saves 10% weight (current build at 4450lbs).
3. The v2.0 chassis will have improved fit / finish, panel gaps more consistent, due to having molded major chassis parts compared to stamped steel welded / bonded parts
4. 4680 vs 2170 batteries. Fewer cells required for same energy, saves weight. Battery pack uses cells as structural elements, vs over-built 2170 pack, saves weight
5. 1/3 fewer robots needed for the assembly process, faster / cheaper process, battery margins stay in-house, saves costs.
This new cast and battery pack is suppose to be revolutionary hence easier and faster to make. That is why Elon is moving towards this model that no other traditional car maker is able to do. Your difference is product, I was referring to Giga factory and how everyone things it will take forever to ramp up.
 
Not Really.....
The product coming out of Austin is almost certainly a new build - the MY chassis v2.0
This is a different animal than the MY product currently coming out of Fremont. It should be noted that Fremont will soon be converting to build the new chassis as well.
PRIMARY DIFFERENCES
1. Both Front and Rear Megacasts on a Structural Battery Pack. The current chassis has only the Rear megacast and a standard non-structural battery pack.
2. 440lbs lower weight - the use of megacasts F+R plus the battery pack as a structural element of the chassis saves 10% weight (current build at 4450lbs).
3. The v2.0 chassis will have improved fit / finish, panel gaps more consistent, due to having molded major chassis parts compared to stamped steel welded / bonded parts
4. 4680 vs 2170 batteries. Fewer cells required for same energy, saves weight. Battery pack uses cells as structural elements, vs over-built 2170 pack, saves weight
5. 1/3 fewer robots needed for the assembly process, faster / cheaper process, battery margins stay in-house, saves costs.
They are already using the one cast so weight reduction won’t be the full 440.
 
This new cast and battery pack is suppose to be revolutionary hence easier and faster to make. That is why Elon is moving towards this model that no other traditional car maker is able to do. Your difference is product, I was referring to Giga factory and how everyone things it will take forever to ramp up.
And it WILL take a while to ramp up. Texas will not be a light switch.
There's an actual model for that ramp time, it's called Giga China.
Tracking the ramp period that China experienced is a fair model for what Austin is likely to be. Both new factories, both new personnel.
Giga Texas will have the benefit of existing, relatively local suppliers, where China transitioned to local Chinese suppliers.
Weekly volume by Quarter went 250-500-1000-2500-5000 (Fremont equivalent) - now 12,000+
 
And it WILL take a while to ramp up. Texas will not be a light switch.
There's an actual model for that ramp time, it's called Giga China.
Tracking the ramp period that China experienced is a fair model for what Austin is likely to be. Both new factories, both new personnel.
Giga Texas will have the benefit of existing, relatively local suppliers, where China transitioned to local Chinese suppliers.
Weekly volume by Quarter went 250-500-1000-2500-5000 (Fremont equivalent) - now 12,000+
I never said ramp period. And no it will not be a while to ramp up. My EDD move up two months today after no movement for last couple months. This will start little slow to work out the kinks but it is not going to be a 6 more months process. I will be surprised if this takes 6 months to get off the ground and running to start. If supply constraints become a issue that is different. Lets see what the 26th holds
 
I never said ramp period. And no it will not be a while to ramp up. My EDD move up two months today after no movement for last couple months. This will start little slow to work out the kinks but it is not going to be a 6 more months process. I will be surprised if this takes 6 months to get off the ground and running to start. If supply constraints become a issue that is different. Lets see what the 26th holds
Take Tesla's EDD with a lot of salt.
As for Austin, it will get going by March and the ramp will be similar to China.
 
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I never said ramp period. And no it will not be a while to ramp up. My EDD move up two months today after no movement for last couple months. This will start little slow to work out the kinks but it is not going to be a 6 more months process. I will be surprised if this takes 6 months to get off the ground and running to start. If supply constraints become a issue that is different. Lets see what the 26th holds
I think I got you beat… my EDD moved up from Nov’22 to May 15-Jun 12 and with actual weeks defined.

Being in CA I’m just hoping the structural pack is part of the vehicle.
 
They are already using the one cast so weight reduction won’t be the full 440.
You're forgetting the batteries will weigh less. They won't use the same number of cells. There's an internet fantasy that range will be greatly enhanced. It won't by much.
The new chassis removes the floorpan (replaced by the structural pack)
The Front megacast replaces far more stamped steel / welded pieces than the rear.
You're also forgetting that Elon himself said 10% weight reduction (ok, that's an Elon)
 

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