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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

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Any range improvement from dropping 200 or 300 or 400 lbs is going to be single digit stuff in real world. Heat improvement ditto.
Range is mainly about aerodynamics and the ambient temperature.
Any weight loss - and we’re talking prob more like 225-250 - will mostly impact handling, and that modestly. I can see them dropping everything down to match current range then tossing in another 50lb of batteries for marketing boost.
This is separate from any discussion about how to handle the output from each factory during transition.
 
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Don't even listen to these trolls, they hate everything and disagree with everything. You put a deposit down so you have the right to do whatever you want with your order.
You have the right to do whatever you want? Hardly. You have the right to do what is spelled out in your purchase agreement. A signed contract between you and Tesla. If it is not spelled out in that contract, Tesla doesn't owe it to you to make it happen.
 
Any range improvement from dropping 200 or 300 or 400 lbs is going to be single digit stuff in real world. Heat improvement ditto.
Range is mainly about aerodynamics and the ambient temperature.
Any weight loss - and we’re talking prob more like 225-250 - will mostly impact handling, and that modestly. I can see them dropping everything down to match current range then tossing in another 50lb of batteries for marketing boost.
This is separate from any discussion about how to handle the output from each factory during transition.

Yep. Regenerative braking means vehicle weight is not that big a deal (all Teslas are pretty heavy).

I recall one point in time when Tesla was shipping short and medium range "models" which had identical battery packs (for simpler manufacturing). Software could unlock the added range. That logic could hold again - simply make the 4680's the way they're intended to be and range-lock them to be equal to the existing pack till later when they want to offer more range as a feature.

They already keep the hidden "reserve" below 0% charge, so the "size" and range of a pack is already a matter of some nuance and config.
 
Any range improvement from dropping 200 or 300 or 400 lbs is going to be single digit stuff in real world. Heat improvement ditto.
Range is mainly about aerodynamics and the ambient temperature.
Any weight loss - and we’re talking prob more like 225-250 - will mostly impact handling, and that modestly. I can see them dropping everything down to match current range then tossing in another 50lb of batteries for marketing boost.
This is separate from any discussion about how to handle the output from each factory during transition.
A little tesla history. In 2020 the MY-LR had an EPA range of 316 miles then later that increased to 326 miles then more recently to 330 miles. During 2021 Tesla starting using a rear mega-casting (saving some weight) then the battery pack capacity was increased from 77 KWH to 82 KWH. So it appears these changes increased the EPA range my just 14 miles. The new ver. 2.0 chassis with both front and rear mega-castings plus the 4680 structural battery pack will probably add a modest EPA range increase. At Battery Day in Sept. 2020 when it was said that the 4680 structural battery pack would have 16% higher capacity, that was in comparison to the, then current, 77 KWH batteries. So even if the soon to be sold new ver. 2.0 MYs with 4680 structural battery packs still have the planned increased capacity it will now only be about a 10% increase over the current 82 KWH battery pack.
 
My prediction is that the 4680 packs will carry a similar amount of energy to the existing packs (82kW). Tesla will just software limit them initially to match the range of the MY coming out of Freemont. Then, once Freemont switches over to 4680, BOOM, they can software unlock the original Austin models to get more range.
Your post of about Tesla using software to unlock the extra range and power from the Model Y makes complete sense because they totally have the ability to do it with the push of a button. Even if they lock out my MYP 2.0 range and or power and charge me $2k down the road for faster acceleration and extra range I would do it to keep people from crying that I got a better car than them because mine came from Texas. Elon can just blame it Texas...
Texas.PNG


"Everything is bigger in Texas"! Bigger 4680 battery packs have to come from Texas first!
 
My prediction is that the 4680 packs will carry a similar amount of energy to the existing packs (82kW). Tesla will just software limit them initially to match the range of the MY coming out of Freemont. Then, once Freemont switches over to 4680, BOOM, they can software unlock the original Austin models to get more range.

This is pretty certainly the case, has been mentioned here many times. Only way this isn't the case is if current Fremont 2022 Y are already being software limited and they can delimit to match 4860 Austins once hitting the streets
 
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If that holds true it all leads to a different model down the road which Tesla doesn’t seem to want to do. The example was selling a software locked short range that was able to be upgraded to a mid range. In this example you want a LR unlocked to a LR+. That means Tesla would need to create a LR+ down the road and they haven’t shown any indication they want to do that. Especially for a mid market vehicle. They will try to get 400 mile range from the MX first and drive orders that way before they bother spending more money on a model with 100k back orders as currently configured.
 
I could see tesla doing
Fremont- MY Standard range (2170)- 330m
Austin- MY Long range (4860)- 400miles

OK, now ask yourself - how do you market, certify and sell that combo to the US customers? which one do you sell to existing MYLR deposit holders?

How do you address the priority Elon presented of shipping Austin output to the right side of the country to save on shipping costs?

Have you thought this thru?
 
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Glad to see the rumor mill slowed down. 😂

I think folks are jumping to too many conclusions. The answers have been posted just like they were around all this Dec / Jan shipment silliness.

Remember earnings announcements are as much massaged legal statements as they are detailed plans. Tesla is CURRENTLY chip constrained with only Fremont producing Model Y. Ask yourself what happens when Austin starts making Model Y. And if Fremont converts over to 4680. We know for a fact there is not a lot of 4680 production online. It’s coming but not today. Teslas chip constraint very quickly flips to cell constrained. Unless … they don’t intend for 4680 and 2170 to be materially different vehicles.

Tesla is in business to make shareholders happy. To increase margins to 30% (that’s why it’s stock multipliers is tech based not manufacturing based - to reflect tech margins not auto maker margins).

They will not do anything that lowers margins (no price cuts coming, no “extra cells” that are unlocked later). Those were all mechanisms a production constrained, volume starved company takes to gain market interest and trade margin for manufacturing efficiency. Neither of those are true anymore. Every cell Tesla puts in a Model Y that is unused is a waste of money (margin). And unlocking it later for a fee doesn’t work because no one will pay - if 1/3 people pay they’d have to charge 3x the value to just get back to even. Not to mention the blowback, cost of implementing and programming that, etc.

File all this new model, price cut stuff with the production in Dec/Jan crap (a couple dozen cars for testing is not production. - it’s startup activity).

4680 and 2170 will be the same car as far as consumers are concerned.
There are no price cuts.
No saleable Austin VINs until March

In other words steady as she goes.
 
You guys all assume Tesla gives a fat flying **** about customer service and they don't. Having 2 kinds of the same car out there is definitely something I could see Tesla doing.

You're east of the Mississippi? Sweet, here's your new fancy car.

West? Sorry, either take delivery of the car you -signed- and paid for you'll have to wait a year. It is, after all, no lesser than when you reserved it.

Tesla literally made people pay for a $6500 seat change in the Model X to take delivery "before year end", didn't deliver to alot of those people, and months later forced the same change on some reservation holders for free. The original $6500 upgraders are holding the bag through the new year and they're not getting any kind of refund.
 
You guys all assume Tesla gives a fat flying **** about customer service and they don't. Having 2 kinds of the same car out there is definitely something I could see Tesla doing.

You're east of the Mississippi? Sweet, here's your new fancy car.

West? Sorry, either take delivery of the car you -signed- and paid for you'll have to wait a year. It is, after all, no lesser than when you reserved it.

Tesla literally made people pay for a $6500 seat change in the Model X to take delivery "before year end", didn't deliver to alot of those people, and months later forced the same change on some reservation holders for free. The original $6500 upgraders are holding the bag through the new year and they're not getting any kind of refund.
So X does mark the spot...... ouch.. you should have that looked at. ;)
 
So X does mark the spot...... ouch.. you should have that looked at. ;)

I might be a little salty, yes. lol

I do love the cars and I am super excited to get something in the next few months, but with my X being over 12 months late and the MYP I ordered in November stalling, I have no idea what I will get at this point. If the MYP comes out with some sweet changes I might just get that.
 
I might be a little salty, yes. lol

I do love the cars and I am super excited to get something in the next few months, but with my X being over 12 months late and the MYP I ordered in November stalling, I have no idea what I will get at this point. If the MYP comes out with some sweet changes I might just get that.
whens your edd on the MYP ? I'd expect it to be feb or march
 
Continual comedy and entertainment reading these posts. Folks post like they "know" the facts and hammer others for their posts because they think they are right and the others are wrong.

ALL OF THIS is NOT FACTS. It is opinion and speculation as to what Tesla is or isn't going to do. Unless you have credentials such as being a VP level or higher at Tesla or even just a worker at Austin that has access to the vehicles, please keep in mind that your opinion isn't correct while other opinions are wrong. It is YOUR opinion and YOUR speculation. All fun in the interweb and forum world.

Anything can happen here with regards to the Model Y. NO ONE knows the facts (at least that post here).
 
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The 2170 is not a structural pack. They made a modified frame that can connect the front and rear megacasts and use 2170s, but this is different than a battery structure designed to eliminate an external frame (structural 4680).

Tesla has stated that the Model Y casts can be used with either. The Cybertruck is fully dependent on 4680 structural AFAIK.
2170 and 4680 are types of battery cells. Either can go into battery pack. So the idea that somehow the a 2170 based battery pack is somehow inheiriantly less structural than a 4680 battery pack seems wrong, to me. At the Brandenburg Fair they showed off structural battery packs based on 2170 and 4680 cells. I believe that while Tesla ramps ups its 4680 cell production we will see cars being built with both of these cell types, but with the packs will all be structural.
 
2170 and 4680 are types of battery cells. Either can go into battery pack. So the idea that somehow the a 2170 based battery pack is somehow inheiriantly less structural than a 4680 battery pack seems wrong, to me. At the Brandenburg Fair they showed off structural battery packs based on 2170 and 4680 cells. I believe that while Tesla ramps ups its 4680 cell production we will see cars being built with both of these cell types, but with the packs will all be structural.
the larger physical structure and design of the 4680 makes it a more structurally stable design. When a 2170 is used in a structural casing to create a structural pack it requires more support (dead weight) than a 4680. Hence a 2170 structural pack has additional framing to provide the support.

A lot easier to say 4680 is a structural battery and 2170 requires additional framing.
 
I might be a little salty, yes. lol

I do love the cars and I am super excited to get something in the next few months, but with my X being over 12 months late and the MYP I ordered in November stalling, I have no idea what I will get at this point. If the MYP comes out with some sweet changes I might just get that.
Seems a bunch of S and X outside Freemont, maybe one for you?