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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

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If you think the majority of potential EV buyers are as inquisitive and knowledgeable as members of this forum, then I’m pretty sure you are mistaken. The average EV buyer cares about range, what does it look like, and is it not too different from what I’m currently driving. Then maybe they think about charging infrastructure. But what battery technology is or what microprocessor is running the MMI…..probably not.
Yeah, I was thinking about this in terms of holds. Everyone is talking about 'holds 2.0' - a second round of holds, not unlike those that happened this past December to try and get delivery dates in January (for a potential EV tax refund). It just won't be the same this time around - pretty much everyone was aware of the tax refund bit and your average buy would have had it on their radar. Not so much the cast vs non-cast, 2170 vs 4680, Intel vs AMD, etc.

The only exception may be MYP buyers. That's a smaller market and likely a buyer more interested in other aspects of the vehicle, certainly not just range (which it has less of). MYP buys may start to aggressively put cars on hold and or cancel/reorder if it becomes known that 4680s are about to be rolled out.
 
I have a MY overnight test drive scheduled for Jan 25. I know it's not likely, nor am I expecting it to happen, but, on the off chance it is an Austin-made MY, are there any pics of the vehicle I should snag? Would there be any physical evidence of the 4680 structural pack (ie how the seats are mounted).

P.S. I've read this entire thread so please save the "there's no way it'll be an Austin MY" comments for someone else - I'm just trying to help the community with research, not add to speculation.
Whelp, just got a call from the service center. The agent said that they do not have enough demo cars to allow for an overnight test drive at this time. He mentioned:
  • I can still do a 15 min test drive tomorrow
  • they will be getting in a larger fleet of vehicles either the first or 2nd week of February
  • once they've replenished their fleet I will be able to do the overnight test drive
Kind of bummed as I really want to experience how the ride is on the 21" MYP wheels. I know it won't ride as nice as my wife's M3LR but I'm hoping it rides better than my Ford Raptor with 20" wheels. I guess I shouldn't sweat it as it seems there's plenty of people willing to swap their 19" Inductions for the 21" Uberturbines.

Anyway, I'll still try to snag VIN and build plate pics and look for any other noticeable differences and report back.
 
Do you think Tesla is going to push the CT in front of the Semi, Cyber Truck and Roadster (maybe Roadster). With all of the promises and continued pushes, I can't see them having the CT leap frogging the others. It's just hard for me to see that taking place (you never know with Tesla though).
As we know, you NEVER know with Tesla. They do what they're gonna do, and don't tell until it suits THEM. The blogs are purely puppets.
My "guess" is SEMI is being produced in prototype quantities to keep competition at bay (like for Pepsi), CT will happen when it happens, they've got time and 1M orders.
MY is the focus dejour because of the maturity of process and product, and because of the order backlog. Tesla wants to capture mucho Market Share ASAP.
 
Whelp, just got a call from the service center. The agent said that they do not have enough demo cars to allow for an overnight test drive at this time. He mentioned:
  • I can still do a 15 min test drive tomorrow
  • they will be getting in a larger fleet of vehicles either the first or 2nd week of February
  • once they've replenished their fleet I will be able to do the overnight test drive
Kind of bummed as I really want to experience how the ride is on the 21" MYP wheels. I know it won't ride as nice as my wife's M3LR but I'm hoping it rides better than my Ford Raptor with 20" wheels. I guess I shouldn't sweat it as it seems there's plenty of people willing to swap their 19" Inductions for the 21" Uberturbines.

Anyway, I'll still try to snag VIN and build plate pics and look for any other noticeable differences and report back.
I didn't even know they would do an overnight test drive, over here where I am they limit you to 30m to 45m or so. I know this is very subjective for people but the MYP I drove (same spec I ordered) was totally fine, wife even commented it wasn't a bad ride. That being said the roads were I was were very good. I also will still be swapping the 21" for some 20" tsportline regardless. Really thought hard about going 19" but can't bring myself to pull the trigger on those. Worried I may regret the look I suppose.
 
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Yeah, I was thinking about this in terms of holds. Everyone is talking about 'holds 2.0' - a second round of holds, not unlike those that happened this past December to try and get delivery dates in January (for a potential EV tax refund). It just won't be the same this time around - pretty much everyone was aware of the tax refund bit and your average buy would have had it on their radar. Not so much the cast vs non-cast, 2170 vs 4680, Intel vs AMD, etc.

The only exception may be MYP buyers. That's a smaller market and likely a buyer more interested in other aspects of the vehicle, certainly not just range (which it has less of). MYP buys may start to aggressively put cars on hold and or cancel/reorder if it becomes known that 4680s are about to be rolled out.
Cancelling and reordering could get expensive given high demand and general inflation. But at least higher price would bring substantial improvement, compared to paying $5k more so an arcade game or youtube loads faster.
 
Whelp, just got a call from the service center. The agent said that they do not have enough demo cars to allow for an overnight test drive at this time. He mentioned:
  • I can still do a 15 min test drive tomorrow
  • they will be getting in a larger fleet of vehicles either the first or 2nd week of February
  • once they've replenished their fleet I will be able to do the overnight test drive
Kind of bummed as I really want to experience how the ride is on the 21" MYP wheels. I know it won't ride as nice as my wife's M3LR but I'm hoping it rides better than my Ford Raptor with 20" wheels. I guess I shouldn't sweat it as it seems there's plenty of people willing to swap their 19" Inductions for the 21" Uberturbines.

Anyway, I'll still try to snag VIN and build plate pics and look for any other noticeable differences and report back.
Dang, but look forward to tomorrow.
 
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Cancelling and reordering could get expensive given high demand and general inflation. But at least higher price would bring substantial improvement, compared to paying $5k more so an arcade game or youtube loads faster.
Its a gamble for sure for for $5k off I would take what ever they give me and then just upgrade next year with $5k trade equity. Who knows maybe the prices come down once Giga Texas is in full speed production and 4680 batteries are plentiful. Unlikley but possible. We need the competition to undercut Tesla pricing for that to happen I think.
 

So, do we really think with cells from Kato and maybe Austin that Austin is ready to mass produce 4680 Ys? Leads more credence to either a slow ramp at Austin (like China) or starting with 2170 cells. Or would these Panasonic 4680 strictly be in China for China and Berlin?

Also, circling back to cost reduction that people keep pointing to as to why Tesla will start with these immediately. The 14% reduction is in battery cost which in itself is 30% cost if the total vehicle. That means the cost reduction relation to the vehicle is 4.2%. If there is a 30% profit margin on the vehicles, that would equate to a reduction of base price by about $3500. Not insignificant but not as Much as many people make it seem.
This is a good starting point. Since its speculation season till tomorrow night’s earnings call, I’d guess they will start Austin with 2170s McGyvvered into the strucural pack, with a SMALL chance that they may do that for the LR and 4680 for the MYP. Depending on the mysterious built-up stock of 4680s and what production rate they’re seeing now and what they’re confident they will be producing in two months etc.
There will be fair discussion in the call about the Semi. There is a reason a photo of it is pasted across the top of the company’s earnings call announcement I guess.
There will be some solid tidbit about Model 2/Q whatever it is, because that is really the future of the company in many ways. It can’t hit the volume it wants to hit without getting down from its mid-luxury/luxury beginnings. That will be mainly Shanghai which is fast emerging as Tesla’s rock star facility.
Then Elon will make happy noises about the CT, making it seem as imminent as he can with some concrete details to underpin his confidence but... the bottom line will be no serious customer trucks till 1Q 2023. And I dont want one, but I dont care what anyone says, the leaked version looks better than the original.
As to price reduction, unlikely. 4680s will initially increase their profit margins slightly then later be used to stave off price increases. But they dont have the production volume right now to use enough of them to reduce prices.
 
Cancelling and reordering could get expensive given high demand and general inflation. But at least higher price would bring substantial improvement, compared to paying $5k more so an arcade game or youtube loads faster.

Tesla was making 30% before they increased prices and the 4680 will reduce the cost of the battery ( to tesla) by 30% . The price increases were not all inflation, some of it was antisipation for the tax credits and other was to slow the flipping of the cars. But Technically you will have a cheaper car with a 4680, one where Tesla could easiallt drop the price of the Y by 20K and still make money.
 
Do you think Tesla is going to push the CT in front of the Semi, Cyber Truck and Roadster (maybe Roadster). With all of the promises and continued pushes, I can't see them having the CT leap frogging the others. It's just hard for me to see that taking place (you never know with Tesla though).
roadster is the least important item in the product lineup. By a large margin.
 
And why they have had all the new M3s and MYs in the employee lot charging. Received from Fremont, charged overnight, licensed and then shipped out. Anyone who can comment on cost of licensing in Texas vs CA for manufacturers? Might be a cost/tax savings move for Tesla if the cars have to be shipped East anyways.
They almost certainly do it all on paper and simply ship the tags around, either to Fremont or to the SCs.
Not once in my life, out of I dunno 20 cars, have I ever had to produce the actual vehicle to register it. Just my paperwork.
Moving the the cars from Fremont to Texas THEN to SC’s would be pretty cumbersome.
 
Tesla could easiallt drop the price of the Y by 20K and still make money.
could and would are two different things. Lack of a competitor, strong demand, high margins means as a publicly traded company you keep that price point and product and introduce a smaller entry product. They’d be roasted by shareholders if they took one of the best selling vehicles and randomly dropped price by 30%.
 
They almost certainly do it all on paper and simply ship the tags around, either to Fremont or to the SCs.
Not once in my life, out of I dunno 20 cars, have I ever had to produce the actual vehicle to register it. Just my paperwork.
Moving the the cars from Fremont to Texas THEN to SC’s would be pretty cumbersome.
In KY the initial reg has to be in person with the car. They verify the VIN is all they do. It is stupid but it happens. Maybe TX is the same way.
 
could and would are two different things. Lack of a competitor, strong demand, high margins means as a publicly traded company you keep that price point and product and introduce a smaller entry product. They’d be roasted by shareholders if they took one of the best selling vehicles and randomly dropped price by 30%.
Precisely. No way that is going to happen. Not with Y orders backed up to November at current price or just below it, X orders backed up to November, and huge number of orders for products they aren’t even selling.
 
Generally I agree with you but I would think that many more people are doing much more research before buying an EV.

When thinking about EV's I would think abou my rechargable batteries and how they went bad in a couple years in my phone or other devices . I needed to do that extra research to get past that . So understanding the batteries and the charging and then looking at the history and the warranty I was finally able to get past my hand held battery experience. Then where to charge, how long it takes, how temperture and weight impacts mileage.

I believe most other people have the same questions . I have had no such concerns about buying ICE vehicles in the past . So I think there will be a greater number of people who what to know about capacity, charging and longevity of the batteries, (at least until most people have had one)
I've seen a few posts here like "My Tesla is coming in a few weeks, what should I do about charging?" Not everyone does their research!
 
I can see the desire to receive the updated battery and chassis design, with the potential for a lighter car, longer range, or better efficiency. I haven’t heard many thoughts on long term repair costs. 8 years from now, cars sold today will be coming off warranty and some of these batteries will need to be repaired or replaced. Some early Model S owners are now facing $20K+ bills to replace their aging batteries, so I wonder what the Y costs will look like. Will there be any advantages to repairing the 4680 like the ability to replace a single module rather than the whole battery? Will the 2170 even be made anymore, or will Tesla retrofit special 4680 packs to fit into the old chassis? And in 10 years, it could be that <10% of Ys have the older chassis and battery, making them more expensive to service than the newer tech.

I’m sure most here will turn over their cars by then, but I like to hold onto my cars for a long time so wonder about these things. I know none of you have a time machine, but any insights?