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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
I feel like this exact thing happened in 2018 when I took delivery of my M3P - Tesla upped the range of the M3LR not long after and kept delivering the unaffected range M3P's for another 6 months.
It really makes most sense given June --> August --> December Estimated Delivery Dates for the MYLR.
I don't want it to be true though... was hoping for big news before I take delivery Sunday... alas, I'll probably have to take delivery Sunday
Mrbrock
Active Member
And yet the truck that left with pictures from 2 days ago are all Performance.
Nobody here knows one way or the other what combination of LR and P will be made at Austin, just by seeing some leaked pics. There is no solid evidence once way or the other.
Nobody here knows one way or the other what combination of LR and P will be made at Austin, just by seeing some leaked pics. There is no solid evidence once way or the other.
Yea ordered myp last night when website said March. This am I am getting a 4/30-5/28 edd
Can’t decide if that’s good news or bad news
I wouldn’t read anything into that.
They were sitting on March awhile. They had to bump to April at some point, even if same number of orders are coming in, simply because... time moves on and we are ever-closer to March.
giveaways to Elon’s 2nd or 3rd tier buddies.Doesn't make any sense that a truckload of "test or certification" vehicles would be in different paint colors and wrapped for transportation?
My guess is demos shown off maybe at local shopping malls.
Mrbrock
Active Member
Or Fremont vehicles making a stop in Texas. The initial LRs were two colors. No reason not to test various paint colors on vehicles that will be destroyed during or after testing. Need to validate the paint process somehow.Doesn't make any sense that a truckload of "test or certification" vehicles would be in different paint colors and wrapped for transportation?
My guess is demos shown off maybe at local shopping malls.
The wrapping is odd but didn’t look like it was done for any specific reason. Only the rear bumper of a forward facing car. And the rear facing car at the front has no wrapping.
Does anyone recognize the street that truck was on? As far as I am concerned that truck could be anywhere and any time in the last year or two.
There was some speculation that the cars were headed north for cold weather testing of the batteries and paintDoesn't make any sense that a truckload of "test or certification" vehicles would be in different paint colors and wrapped for transportation?
My guess is demos shown off maybe at local shopping malls.
I'm on my second Fremont VIN. Not in a critical hurry to get a vehicle but we do want to get rid of my wife's ICE SUV in the next 5,000 miles. I'm convinced if I hold or reject VIN again they'll cancel and I'll be in the June-August window which is too late for us.
Not going to win the waiting game for an Austin vehicle when my only reason to wait is for improved range which isn't a guarentee for the MYP.
Looking at Autotrader in my area, low mile 2022 MYP's are bringing in 10k over delivery, so worst case I flip it I guess if I'm wrong and Austin VINs start flying around next week.
Exactly. And Austin MYP build rate, which seems to be about 2/week should be doubled by then. Unless they stop the line to push through a massive run of 10 or 12 MYLRs.
But it appears the Kato Rd. tesla battery factor has been shipping 4680 structural battery packs to Austin for the past several month it has been stated by a tesla VP that their 4680 production increased significantly during the latter months of 2021 and Elon recently said the 4680 supply is not a limiting factor in the number of MYs than can produce. Therefore there does not appear to be any reason that Austin (and perhap very soon also Fremont) can be producting both MYP and MYLR version 2.0 models with the 4680 structural battery pack. Also, Elon said sometime ago that that although the Kato Rd. facility is "pilot" battery factory, it is something like the 5th largest battery factory in the world, so it can probably supply the needs for 4680 cells until the Austin battery production cranks up later this year.
Also, just because only a single car carrier load of MYs from Austion has been photographed and posted, that does not mean there were not more MYs being shipped from Austin recently. It just means that no one was in the right place at the right time to be able to photograph them and post the photos online. Remember so one is monitoring what is going out of Austin 24/7.
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My current favorite among the YouTube hype pros re: 4680 is the Bearded Tesla Guy’s take.
With some extremely aggressive math, he projects MYP range could go to 466.6 miles.
And MYLR... wait for it... 508 miles.
Good times!
With some extremely aggressive math, he projects MYP range could go to 466.6 miles.
And MYLR... wait for it... 508 miles.
Good times!
Mrbrock
Active Member
You are misinterpreting Drew Baglino’s quote to push the “4680s are ready” storyline.
“Throughout 2021, we focused on growing cell supply alongside our in-house 4680 effort to provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today, sales from suppliers actually sort of exceeds our other factory-limiting constraints that you mentioned, Elon, in 2022. Or to say differently, 4680 cells are not a constraint to our 2022 volume plans, based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress on the ramp curve in Kato. We’re building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before. And we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.”
Making progress on the ramp curve means progress. If they had succeeded at conquering the ramp curve and were at full scale 4680 production they would have said so. Growing cell supply alongside 4680 production means they have contracts for 18650, 2170 and LFP to provide more cells than needed based on other limiting factors. As far as we know, there are no suppliers currently producing 4680 cells to Teslas specs at anything close to the scale needed to make 200,000 LR packs per year (200,000,000 cells) or 200 times what Tesla has been able to do in 6 months. 2022 volume plans could mean they will use 2170 in all LR MY and they have contracts to supply cells for those vehicles. And 4680 is only in MYP.
Until someone can snap a picture of the battery label of an Austin LR MY, nobody will know. If the recent image is actually of Austin MYP, then it is more likely Austin does MYP with 4680 and those are the customer cars that will be delivered this quarter. Very limited as production ramps.
My hot take prediction.
California makes the Model Y standard range with LFP.
Texas makes the LR and P. LR will have around 350 miles of range
No way around it. If Tesla reduces the amount of batteries to match 2170 and save money then we should see a significant weight loss which means faster car. Or they can match the battery size but they don’t need a 400 range model y just yet.
I feel like they’ll meet in the middle. Save some money but also increase the range just a bit (350).
They’ve already increased the prices by a lot and mostly everyone who ordered the model y pre price hike has now been delivered. Let’s see what happens
California makes the Model Y standard range with LFP.
Texas makes the LR and P. LR will have around 350 miles of range
No way around it. If Tesla reduces the amount of batteries to match 2170 and save money then we should see a significant weight loss which means faster car. Or they can match the battery size but they don’t need a 400 range model y just yet.
I feel like they’ll meet in the middle. Save some money but also increase the range just a bit (350).
They’ve already increased the prices by a lot and mostly everyone who ordered the model y pre price hike has now been delivered. Let’s see what happens
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