Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Polymer]

They’re building P’s a lot closer to the speed at which they’re needed. Current production capacity led to this level of MLYR backlog. An increased production capacity will reduce it. They don’t need to focus on MYP. They’re building enough of them almost fast enough.

I think you're missing what they're doing..they're priortizing the cars that cost more. It takes no more time for them to produce a MYLR Black and yet you will get one faster. It costs no more to get MYLR white with upgraded wheels but you get that faster.
They're going to build X number of cars in a year...That might be y% more than last year they might be building them faster, etc..but either way, their production doesn't change whether they do a none free color or change the rims or even the P model.
You've said yourself the P accounts for a smallish percentage of the cars so it isn't making a huge impact to their ability to do LRs instead...and by pushing P's back, you'll make the LR more attractive...I'm sure there are more than a few people that have decided the difference in cost is worth the quicker delivery+small extras you get...

 

[907XCP]

It says April on the website but I ordered last night when it changed to April and I actually got a est delivery date in the app of May 31-June 28th for a MYP Midnight Silver /Black Int and Tow.

Your EDD will update in the next few weeks to a more closer date. Hang in there

 

[StatVirus]

I wonder if we’ll start seeing MYLRs with the 20” wheels as well. I’m starting to think maybe they’ll be doing both MYLR and MYPs.

 

[Tesraki]

Anyone know how many cars the plant in china made each month it’s first year? I would assume it would be similar #s for Texas so we can estimate how many model Ys they’ll be making

Shanghai made 2,625 Model 3s in the first month of production, 3,898 the second month, and 10,128 units the third month. That's 84, 134, and 328 cars per production day. The total first quarter of production was less than 11% of the first full year's production. Production didn't exceed 400 units per day until the third quarter. It reached 2,154 per day last December (M3 + MY).

Until the 4680 battery production ramps up in Texas batteries will be a constraint on production. Until there are signs of that happening I don't expect a lot of cars to roll out of Austin.

Numbers are from Troy Teslike's spreadsheet on his Twitter account.

 

[advocate8]

I think you're missing what they're doing..they're priortizing the cars that cost more. It takes no more time for them to produce a MYLR Black and yet you will get one faster. It costs no more to get MYLR white with upgraded wheels but you get that faster.
They're going to build X number of cars in a year...That might be y% more than last year they might be building them faster, etc..but either way, their production doesn't change whether they do a none free color or change the rims or even the P model.
You've said yourself the P accounts for a smallish percentage of the cars so it isn't making a huge impact to their ability to do LRs instead...and by pushing P's back, you'll make the LR more attractive...I'm sure there are more than a few people that have decided the difference in cost is worth the quicker delivery+small extras you get...

And what you’re not getting is MYPs are already prioritized nearly all they possibly can be and shifting their production site can’t improve that to any significant extent.

 

[BGOwner]

Watched Jeff’s YouTube. Pretty sure I saw my MY being rolled out. But was 4 or 5 guys getting their fingerprints all over it before it was covered.

 

[advocate8]

So now I have a version for each eye...

I think you're missing what they're doing..they're priortizing the cars that cost more. It takes no more time for them to produce a MYLR Black and yet you will get one faster. It costs no more to get MYLR white with upgraded wheels but you get that faster.
They're going to build X number of cars in a year...That might be y% more than last year they might be building them faster, etc..but either way, their production doesn't change whether they do a none free color or change the rims or even the P model.
You've said yourself the P accounts for a smallish percentage of the cars so it isn't making a huge impact to their ability to do LRs instead...and by pushing P's back, you'll make the LR more attractive...I'm sure there are more than a few people that have decided the difference in cost is worth the quicker delivery+small extras you get...

That said, it’s all speculation and you may be entirely right…depending on things like ramp up speed and 47 decisions Tesla prob has to make as it goes.
We do have 100 plus cars apparently mostly it all MYLR…the rest is us guessing..

 

[Ralbright]

Another sighting at Giga Texas.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494352640305680388

View attachment 770427

Are the covers hiding the new colors?!?

 

[HellsKitchen]

Are the covers hiding the new colors?!?

Are there new colors?

 

[Farslasher]

Are the covers hiding the new colors?!?

I don’t think so, in Jeff’s video they were covering up a black car. I think the covers are to protect the cars from debris from the jobsite.

 

[curleymapper]

Are the covers hiding the new colors?!?

Good theory. Shipping to dealers for a coordinated grand unveiling.

 

[Polymer]

That said, it’s all speculation and you may be entirely right…depending on things like ramp up speed and 47 decisions Tesla prob has to make as it goes.
We do have 100 plus cars apparently mostly it all MYLR…the rest is us guessing..

Oh I'm not talking about what Austin is going to produce..looks like they're doing both..but I'm talking just prioritizing LRs over Ps...nothing they've done would indicate they'd do this..it just makes no sense at all. You want your car faster? Plenty of ways to get in the faster lane..want the most basic car? You have the longest wait..

 

[Ron J.]

Shanghai made 2,625 Model 3s in the first month of production, 3,898 the second month, and 10,128 units the third month. That's 84, 134, and 328 cars per production day. The total first quarter of production was less than 11% of the first full year's production. Production didn't exceed 400 units per day until the third quarter. It reached 2,154 per day last December (M3 + MY).

Until the 4680 battery production ramps up in Texas batteries will be a constraint on production. Until there are signs of that happening I don't expect a lot of cars to roll out of Austin.

Numbers are from Troy Teslike's spreadsheet on his Twitter account.

According to Elon at last month's quarterly earnings call, 4680 cells are not the limiting factor for how many MYs tjeu can now built. Rather it is the supply of computer chips. I think many on this forum are under estimating just how many 4680 cells are now be produced by the Kato Rd. battery factory as what info has come out of Tesla indicates that it can meet the needs for 4680 cells until the battery factory in Austin and the new Panasonic factory come online later this year.

 

[afscotch]

Oh I'm not talking about what Austin is going to produce..looks like they're doing both..but I'm talking just prioritizing LRs over Ps...nothing they've done would indicate they'd do this..it just makes no sense at all. You want your car faster? Plenty of ways to get in the faster lane..want the most basic car? You have the longest wait..

My LR order date was Aug 6th. Adding every option except FSD, to include MSM when it wasn't free, has resulted in me sitting in the fast land for 196 days with no VIN and back to a month long EDD window.

 

[Tesraki]

According to Elon at last month's quarterly earnings call, 4680 cells are not the limiting factor for how many MYs tjeu can now built. Rather it is the supply of computer chips. I think many on this forum are under estimating just how many 4680 cells are now be produced by the Kato Rd. battery factory as what info has come out of Tesla indicates that it can meet the needs for 4680 cells until the battery factory in Austin and the new Panasonic factory come online later this year.

That may be true in the long or medium term, but I've seen no evidence that Austin is producing 4680 cells at all, let alone in volume, just yet. Until they do, supply will be constrained. The Panasonic 4680 factory won't open until 2023. Here's a link to an article about Kato Road production, and a reminder that it is a primarily an R&D facility.

I could be wrong. I know very little. If I knew absolutely nothing I'd have a YouTube channel with 500k followers.

A Leaked Document Shows Tesla 4680 Cell Production Is Still Too Low To Count

 

[Farslasher]

That may be true in the long or medium term, but I've seen no evidence that Austin is producing 4680 cells at all, let alone in volume, just yet. Until they do, supply will be constrained. The Panasonic 4680 factory won't open until 2023. Here's a link to an article about Kato Road production, and a reminder that it is a primarily an R&D facility.

I could be wrong. I know very little. If I knew absolutely nothing I'd have a YouTube channel with 500k followers.

A Leaked Document Shows Tesla 4680 Cell Production Is Still Too Low To Count

I would quote Elon Musk in response to you where he said all Tesla model Y’s would have 4680 structural battery packs, however he also said we would have fsd a while ago…. Touché. Guess we will just have to wait and see until someone gets one and identified the different car jack points. (Guess that wouldn’t prove the new batteries specifically…. Guess we need a Munro to tear that bad boy apart too)

 

[garumaru]

Are the covers hiding the new colors?!?

Someone claims them to be covers to protect them from the construction dusts.. well the factory is still under construction.

 

[kabin]

It's curious. If those MYs were completed they would be rolled onto a semi trailer and hauled away to complete the sale. But these are parked difficult for any semi to load, some were pushed out of the factory, and reportedly some vehicles had missing parts.

 

[Sludog]

Are the covers hiding the new colors?!?

I think they're covered because Tesla is waiting certification for sale and those cars could be sitting for awhile. Makes no sense to cover those cars if they are going on transport trucks right away. Unless Tesla starts shipping cars covered like that to prevent transport damage. I mean these are $60k cars and they should be well protected in transport.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

It's curious. If those MYs were completed they would be rolled onto a semi trailer and hauled away to complete the sale. But these are parked difficult for any semi to load, some were pushed out of the factory, and reportedly some vehicles had missing parts.

I would imagine that a good reason to wait would include either: Stockpiling to deliver once the final EPA certs arrive, or Collecting 1-per-Customer-Center to roll out whatever's new in a single "event" across the country. I actually think the first answer is more likely since Tesla is unlikely to be ready to ship 4680's nationwide.