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HEY Fellow NF400xxx MYP driver!Ugh. 21 Jan 2022 order date for black MYP and got a Fremont VIN today. 7SAYGDEF2NF400012
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HEY Fellow NF400xxx MYP driver!Ugh. 21 Jan 2022 order date for black MYP and got a Fremont VIN today. 7SAYGDEF2NF400012
Hey you made the 400k levelUgh. 21 Jan 2022 order date for black MYP and got a Fremont VIN today. 7SAYGDEF2NF400012
When it first popped up, I looked to the right side and thought I was #12 from Austin, but realized it was 400,012. That's still cool though...I just want my car!Hey you made the 400k level
Ha! We're in pretty rare air...well, at least for a few daysHEY Fellow NF400xxx MYP driver!
The best cheat code I’ve read so far is to wait until the end of the year to place an order. 100% guaranteed to work if you want a Texas CarHi all.
New here and perhaps this has been asked but since im only interested in a tesla built by texans, does anyone know specifically how to guarantee one from austin? My residence is in California but im down to deploy any tricks known to cheat that even if it means flying somewhere else to get one. For the $5k difference the performance model seems like a no brainer.
Except @SolarWizard lives in California, so he will still get a car built in Fremont.The best cheat code I’ve read so far is to wait until the end of the year to place an order. 100% guaranteed to work if you want a Texas Car
Range increase will be less than 5%. They are not going to do 15% and put extra cells in cars that aren't needed. The press on 4680 has been misinterpreted. Tesla put out all the weight savings and increased power, etc. but for them that all means they need less batteries per car which makes every car cheaper to build on top of the batteries being cheaper to build. They keep the specs the same and make much more $$$$.Hi everyone, I am new here, from PA. I have a MYLR on order (July EDD) and have been following the MY 2.0 story for a while. I'd like to share my prediction for how Tesla moves ahead.
What do you think?
- As soon as Austin is ready to ramp MYLR, all US orders will come from Austin and Freemont will bring back the standard range.
- Austin MYLR will have some sort of spec improvement. Likely a combo of improved range and reduced weight. There's been too much Tesla press about the 4680 not to have a spec improvement associated with the launch. 50 miles of range and a couple hundred pounds lighter sounds awesome to me.
- Tesla will not sell MYLR from Austin (4680) and Freemont (2170) at the same time with different specs. Most seem to agree that makes no sense.
- Long term. Austin = MYLR and MYP and Freemont = MYSR
If there wasn't money in a SR model, why make the entry M3? Because more people will buy it. It may not be as profitable, but it still makes money. With Austin ramping, they will have more capacity and can afford to make some lower profit models. They did resubmit SR MY to EPA for 2022 model year.No money in the SR. They can make much more profit off the two more expensive models. They may bring it back but not this year.
And much depends on what you mean by this: "As soon as Austin is ready to ramp MYLR."
If you mean Austin is going to flick a switch and suddenly be cranking volumes of MYLR and P that let Fremont stop building those? No, not for months and months. That ramp will take a lot longer that people cheerfully assume.
We’re a long way from training enough folks for that and getting everything rolling. Battery lines look more or less ready to go but their ramp is slow also.
No, Tesla is not making any 4680 LFP. 100% of 4680 production is going to be NCA until there is no longer a waitlist to buy LR MY. Tesla does not use any cylindrical LFP cells currently so it would take entirely new production lines to make them. Different chemistries require different production processes. Tesla uses prismatic LFP. If they do make SR MY in the future, it will use these based on their statement that all SR vehicles will be LFP. They would also need to resubmit for EPA certification with LFP since the battery will have a different weight compared to 2170 SR and they already submitted 2022 SR MY.Good prediction. But keep in mind that the 4680 is just a form factor, not a chemistry. The MYSR will also have 4680, but with iron LFP. My prediction:
2022 : Fremont sells same LR and P as usual with 2170 packs, no change. Austin sells MYLR with same range as Fremont, with nickel-based 4680 structural packs, with 4680 cells from Fremont and packs from Nevada. Austin-based Ys will be lighter and more rigid but same range.
2023 : 4680 cell supply ramps up in Austin and comes online from 3rd parties for both nickel NCA and iron LFP. Austin starts building all 3 variants of the Y: the SR, LR, and P. The SR will use iron LFP. Fremont shuts down the Y lines completely and converts them to more Model 3 lines. Model 3 starts using 4680 packs.
I’m pretty sure they will have more than 100 cells per car!
1 million batteries will only make around 1,000 cars
Are you going to keep it or hold for another one?Ugh. 21 Jan 2022 order date for black MYP and got a Fremont VIN today. 7SAYGDEF2NF400012
Hmm, the old 85s, like mine, don't have a thousand 18650s in them. The 4680s have way more capacity per cell. I think 100 is close to right. 1000 vastly more than possible. (Except in the semi, of course.)
That was my thought also. Even if the Austin version has same range, lighter and more rigid is significant. Probably also better charging profile with 4680.If they sold the fremont model at the same time as the austin model there will be serious uproar. No one would want to pay for less improvements. Id imagine they shutdown fremont line completely, all deliveries of new model y come from austin for a short period of time while they retool fremonts line to match austin then people on west coast will get fremont and 2/3rd east coast will get austin but all being 4680 structural. No one would complain about not getting the new improvements and such.
Yep. Not to mention the current nickel supply craziness. LFP may be more cost stable.If there wasn't money in a SR model, why make the entry M3? Because more people will buy it. It may not be as profitable, but it still makes money. With Austin ramping, they will have more capacity and can afford to make some lower profit models. They did resubmit SR MY to EPA for 2022 model year.
Sigh nope they're all just really dirty Induction 20's I counted the spokes one day when I was bored.Just looking close up. They aren’t silver but can’t tell if black or charcoal Assuming perhaps a combo of both 20/21.
Wow nice resolution lol. I wonder if all of the dark ones are such. Sucks as I have an MYP blue order so hoping they aren’t all LR.Sigh nope they're all just really dirty Induction 20's I counted the spokes one day when I was bored.
View attachment 778683
That's just dirtThe blue in the pic does not seem to be metallic. Is this a first sighting in if Abyss Dark Blue. Problem is it's not shown on Design MY on order sight.
Good prediction. But keep in mind that the 4680 is just a form factor, not a chemistry. The MYSR will also have 4680, but with iron LFP. My prediction:
2022 : Fremont sells same LR and P as usual with 2170 packs, no change. Austin sells MYLR with same range as Fremont, with nickel-based 4680 structural packs, with 4680 cells from Fremont and packs from Nevada. Austin-based Ys will be lighter and more rigid but same range.
2023 : 4680 cell supply ramps up in Austin and comes online from 3rd parties for both nickel NCA and iron LFP. Austin starts building all 3 variants of the Y: the SR, LR, and P. The SR will use iron LFP. Fremont shuts down the Y lines completely and converts them to more Model 3 lines. Model 3 starts using 4680 packs.
My point was that it is unlikely THIS YEAR. As I said. They can sell SR, one day. But they have a serious serious backlog of current orders to deal with.Yep. Not to mention the current nickel supply craziness. LFP may be more cost stable.
Yes, not at all likely 4680 will be done in different chemistry for SR version. Makes no sense. Never even been suggested.No no NO!
How many times does this have to be debunked? Elon himself said they will NOT do LFP in the 4680 form factor.
Second factual error in your post is that Telsa's 4680 cells ARE a different chemistry (dry battery electrode with graphite, NOT wet battery electrode like the current 2170s).