People seem to be thinking the new slightly-lower-range EPA cert for a "Model Y AWD" is somehow the new MYLR.
I don't think that's the case at all.
MYLR will remain MYLR at ~330 mille range regardless if it's made in Fremont or Austin. Range might go up slightly as 4680 pack goes mainstream.
Meanwhile, what I see in the new EPA filing is Tesla making room for a CHEAPER MY under the LR which might or might-not go live any time soon (they already have a RWD variant that seems unlikely to ship, but has an EPA tag too).
Thinking that they'll reduce range on MRLY which has already been ordered doesn't seem rational.
Has there ever been any specific announcement that Austin would be producing Model Y LR AWD or MYP? No. Just that they would be producing Model Y. Everyone ASSUMED it would be the existing models but Tesla has not confirmed or denied this, only that no new models would be produced due to chip shortage (this is a new trim, not a new model). Once again, people assume and start hyping things that aren't true. See 14% more range due to 4680 cells and all the other battery day crap that was projections of what the battery techonology could provide if goals were achieved. All we know is they are producing 4680 but no word on what chemistry they are and if the energy density is the same as 2170 NCA.
What we do know is Tesla submitted a vehicle to EPA for certification that is a new model called Model Y AWD with an apparently smaller battery than the LR AWD and bigger than the SR RWD. In the paperwork submitted for this model there is a slide showing an Austin built VIN 7SAYGDEE4NA000067 that shows as Long Range Dual Motor in the software and had 1714 miles on it at the time of the picture. The car that was tested shows as having 2998 miles on it at the time of the second submission (a resubmittal for corrections). We do not know if Tesla called this long range dual motor at the time of picture but changed it when it was submitted when they realized it was a lower range. Or this is the employee only version and customer cars from Austin will be 330 mile range. We do know that if the customer version of this 280 mile car has a 330 mile range, the battery pack will be 15% heavier which means the car will be heavier than the current LR AWD MY. Unless this car has a different battery than the customer version. You say you have inside info and that Austin will be producing a car with 350 miles range with NCA 4680 and structural battery. This car does not look like that and all appearances show it is coming from Austin. If this is what Austin is capable of, then people need to temper expectations. If this is what 4680 is going to be, oh boy. All the cost savings make sense when you scale and use LFP (this is the only thing that makes sense with this particular car). We know they will be cell limited with 4680 as the car portion of the plant scales to full production.
Once again, we will not know what is really happening at Austin until they deliver cars. For a while, the demo cars at a lot of show rooms were SR MY (I know because I test drove one). Maybe they are producing these as demo cars. Again, all speculation and until an actual delivery happens, we won't know for sure. The LFP question will be easy to answer based on setting charging limits.
Yes and the 4680 MYLR will get a modest range increase to 350-375 to differentiate from this MY AWD. My prediction...
50 miles isn't enough of a range differentiation? M3 SR, SR+, MR and LR were 220, 240, 260 and 310. 20, 20 and 50 miles for the next step. And 36 miles from SR RWD to AWD for MY. I don't see them needing to up the range for a LR 4680 car.
Digging a bit deeper and looking at the 2022 SR MY data here are some thoughts (some facts with my suppositions so I will not call this a fact as to what is being produced):
Battery specific energy - 160 wh/kg
Battery weight - 341 kg
Battery volume - 0.4 cu m
Battery capacity - 54.56 kwh
Curb Weight - 3920
For 2021/22, the AWD applications do not have this same data page so we can't directly draw conclusions on battery weight and size. This information is also not available for the 2022 LFP RWD M3, but we can assume a couple of things and do some math to get similar data.
RWD M3 (LFP)
Battery specific energy - 126 wh/kg
Battery energy capcity - 174 ah (assumed)
Battery voltage - 350
Battery capacity - 60.9 kwh
Battery weight - 483 kg
Curb weight - 3880
SR+ M3 (2170)
Battery specific energy - 145 wh/kg
Battery weight - 375 kg
Battery volume - 0.4 cu m
Battery capacity - 54.38 kwh
Curb weight - 3616
Comparing the SR MY and RWD M3, MY (2170) would have a 380 kg battery at the same kwh as the LFP battery. So 100 kg (220 lbs) weight savings for 2170 vs prismatic LFP. Extrapolating this to an 82 kwh (total capacity) battery, that is 650 kg for LFP and 515 kg for 2170. 135 kg or 300 lbs. Also, based on the RWD M3, the 54.56 kwh battery had to be enlarged to 60.9 to make up for the extra weight so adding this to the 82 kwh battery, it would need to be 91.5 kwh total which would weigh 726 kg. For the new AWD model, the calculated kwh is 68 (based on recharge events and percent charging losses from the 82 kwh packs). 68 kwh of prismatic LFP would be 539 kg if the specific energy is the same as the RWD M3. 2021 LR AWD MY has a battery weight of 480 kg and total capacity of 79.2 kwh from the same type of documents. In other words, if the new AWD is LFP (4680 or prismatic? who knows?) it would have a 59 kg weight penalty (130 lbs) which would be offset by the front casting and structural pack and you get a 25 lb lighter car overall. Also of note, the 2021/2 SR MY had an increase of 15 wh/kg of energy density compared to the same battery in the SR+ M3. And those are still 2170 packs (2170L might be the reason why more energy?). The current math with available numbers point toward LFP in these Model Y AWD cars.
Also interesting to note, the 2021 SR and LR MY have the same battery volume listed in the applications, 0.4 cu m.
Another random thought, with the recent price increases, maybe they were already planned like the ones in 2021 and this new model is coming in at a lower price point to qualify for rebates. I think a lot of jurisdictions have a $60k limit for base model so producing this "mid range" AWD or a SR RWD would allow the Model Y to continue to qualify. With no lower priced version, you can't argue that the Long Range or P are just an upgraded trim of a base model.
