Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[z355is]

Over the past few weeks it seems less and less likely MYP will be built with 4680s this year. I almost don’t want to keep mine on hold anymore. I was going to wait until the Austin party. Anyone else in the same boat?

At this point, it's increasingly likely that the new megacast / 4680 version will be a completely new, orderable vehicle in its own right, similar to the impending SR+. In hindsight, I don't think it was ever in the cards to order an LR or P and just luck into a 4680.

 

[chinokie]

Over the past few weeks it seems less and less likely MYP will be built with 4680s this year. I almost don’t want to keep mine on hold anymore. I was going to wait until the Austin party. Anyone else in the same boat?

In the beginning I was overly obsessed with wanting the 4680. Then I realized that Tesla's Flagship Plaids use the old, old 1865 batteries. Not even the 2170s. But there is so much uncertainty regarding what Austin will build first, I decided to wait until after April 7 to order.

 

[advocate8]

At this point, it's increasingly likely that the new megacast / 4680 version will be a completely new, orderable vehicle in its own right, similar to the impending SR+. In hindsight, I don't think it was ever in the cards to order an LR or P and just luck into a 4680.

Might not have been lucky thing any way. I’m still waiting to hear for sure they make the car better, along with easier and less expensive to build. They aren’t mutually exclusive possibilities -- better car, easier to build -- but both things aren’t guaranteed either. This 280-mile range thing with only 25 lbs less weight may be splash of reality if that is 4680..

 

[Yperformance]

Well, it won't be the nickel shortage that stops 4680 MYP. Clever old Elon has already got contract s in place to buy nickel direct from the mines. He does not have to go through the market s, we are talking about hundreds of of thousands of tons.

 

[Ghostchili]

Yep I gave up earlier this month and put my order in. And I am so glad I did before the $4K price increase.

I ask myself now if 4k increase would have been worth the wait and the speculative 4680 battery. Especially when I don't even know if they will ever build MYP with 4680. There is no clear evidence nor any guidance from Tesla.

Also more price increases is more likely then a MYP with 4680 and I didn't want to wait when MYP becomes a $100K car in Canada before taxes.

Another increase would make MYP out of my reach in terms affordability.

I hear ya. I have my price locked being on hold at least.

 

[tangible1]

Might not have been lucky thing any way. I’m still waiting to hear for sure they make the car better, along with easier and less expensive to build. They aren’t mutually exclusive possibilities -- better car, easier to build -- but both things aren’t guaranteed either. This 280-mile range thing with only 25 lbs less weight may be splash of reality if that is 4680..

The 4680 batteries don't themselves make the MY better. It's what they enable.
What makes it better is the structural battery pack with F+R megacasts. What's in the pack....enables all that..
The new v2.0 chassis is supposedly lighter, stiffer, and more consistent.
That would mean better handling and performance, and better fit and finish.

Whether Tesla has made the 4680 manufacturing breakthrough as yet, remains a question.
If not, then the batteries remain precious and MY car volume using 4680 will be limited.
That would suggest the "MY AWD SR" might be 4680 based, but for Elon having stated that all SR models are to be LFP-based.

It's all speculation until (hopefully) April 7. Maybe....

 

[Yperformance]

If you are short of batteries why would Elon put them in a high volume car when the MYP had a high margin and won't reduce his stocks short term.

 

[mrwug]

I ask myself now if 4k increase would have been worth the wait and the speculative 4680 battery. Especially when I don't even know if they will ever build MYP with 4680. There is no clear evidence nor any guidance from Tesla.

That's the head-scratching aspect of the "wait until" approach. We've seen the MYLR go up $10K over the past 8 months and at some point you have to ask yourself whether a current-spec car is worth so much less than the dream car of tomorrow. People who deferred ordering waiting for BBB are now going to end up paying more even if the 7.5K tax credit passes...while paying astronomical prices for gas (assuming they're still driving an ICE). Same goes for 4680's, cast front ends, etc. How about the people who "lost" radar and front console USB data ports?

A bird in the hand...

 

[kabin]

If you are short of batteries why would Elon put them in a high volume car when the MYP had a high margin and won't reduce his stocks short term.

You probably have one on order but try thinking outside the MYP box. The best bang for Tesla's buck is using the 4680 in the highest volume product with the newly opened Austin gigafactory ramping up production. There will be plenty of 4680 batteries as battery and model Y production ramps up.

 

[tangible1]

If you are short of batteries why would Elon put them in a high volume car when the MYP had a high margin and won't reduce his stocks short term.

I want to believe, but there's no real evidence as yet. April 7, maybe. Probably.

 

[Brolan]

The main problem is that we don’t know how they will use the 4680 batteries in the car. Will they just maintain the current range and pocket the profits? Will they increase the range? And if they do that do they charge more?

I wish Tesla would tell us what they are doing. It’s past time.

 

[CLK350]

My take is: the 4680 will be in Model Y's AFTER their production is ramped up enough to have satisfied the Semi at their full production levels. So this will take possibly a year out. Rationale is that for the mission (and profits) using 4680's in the semi is highest priority.

It is even possible the 4680's get rolled out for the CT even before M3SXYs

 

[Mrbrock]

The 4680 batteries don't themselves make the MY better. It's what they enable.
What makes it better is the structural battery pack with F+R megacasts. What's in the pack....enables all that..
The new v2.0 chassis is supposedly lighter, stiffer, and more consistent.
That would mean better handling and performance, and better fit and finish.

Whether Tesla has made the 4680 manufacturing breakthrough as yet, remains a question.
If not, then the batteries remain precious and MY car volume using 4680 will be limited.
That would suggest the "MY AWD SR" might be 4680 based, but for Elon having stated that all SR models are to be LFP-based.

It's all speculation until (hopefully) April 7. Maybe....

It’s not a Model Y AWD SR. There’s no SR in the name so it doesn’t go against the “all SR cars will be LFP” statement. There has never been an AWD SR car. If anything it will be AWD MR. Using SR for AWD would be very confusing with their current naming. If anything, it will be exactly as submitted to EPA, MY AWD. And if they ever do the former MY SR again it will be MY RWD. Then there will be LR AWD and Performance AWD.

If you are short of batteries why would Elon put them in a high volume car when the MYP had a high margin and won't reduce his stocks short term.

Because something about 4680 production is making it not suitable for MYP. If it’s not going into the smallest production MY, there has to be a reason. Think logically and don’t expand on the battery day 4680 hype machine rumors of increased performance. Based on the data we have, the only 4680 car in existence has a smaller battery and shorter range at the same weight. If you follow the “Elon says all Texas cars will be structural 4680” belief. The battery and range are smaller by about the same percentage so efficiency is about the same but there isn’t the expected weight savings to produce the hyped gains.

I’d guess they need more cooling because the cells are bigger and the extra cooling weighs more since it’s liquid. Yes there are less cooling channels, but with the larger diameter cells, it takes longer to cool to the center of the cells which means bigger cooling channels which also need to be structural if the cells aren’t touching each other directly. Tabless design should mean less heat concentration but heat is always generated when energy is transferred. Just because it doesn’t build up in one area doesn’t mean it completely goes away.

 

[advocate8]

heat is always generated when energy is transferred.

Now you’re getting to the heart of it. in other words there is no free lunch. the 4680s may be more efficient in some ways but the whole system is still governed by the same basic laws of thermodynamics and physics. Looking at it this way, replacing smaller batteries with 4680s in a car may be similar to squeezing a balloon. You make it smaller in one place, but it expands in another and the volume stays the same.

 

[Mrbrock]

Now you’re getting to the heart of it. in other words there is no free lunch. the 4680s may be more efficient in some ways but the whole system is still governed by the same basic laws of thermodynamics and physics. Looking at it this way, replacing smaller batteries with 4680s in a car may be similar to squeezing a balloon. You make it smaller in one place, but it expands in another and the volume stays the same.

Yes, the heat may take longer to build up in 4680s but that means it will take longer to remove. Or more cooling. Which is why IMO it isn’t suited for MYP.

I think Tesla is trying to bite off too much going from 21 to 46. I get the logic, if 18-21 got us this, how big can we go and how much will we gain? I think see a 3075 or something in the middle would have been better. But maybe they did and kept going. I can’t imagine they produced any of these, it was all computer modeling and that is where this all falls apart. If the hype is based on guesswork, what happens when you run into an obstacle? A shorter range heavier car…

 

[advocate8]

Now you’re getting to the heart of it. in other words there is no free lunch. the 4680s may be more efficient in some ways but the whole system is still governed by the same basic laws of thermodynamics and physics. Looking at it this way, replacing smaller batteries with 4680s in a car may be similar to squeezing a balloon. You make it smaller in one place, but it expands in another and the volume stays the same.

Yes, the heat may take longer to build up in 4680s but that means it will take longer to remove. Or more cooling. Which is why IMO it isn’t suited for MYP.

I think Tesla is trying to bite off too much going from 21 to 46. I get the logic, if 18-21 got us this, how big can we go and how much will we gain? I think see a 3075 or something in the middle would have been better. But maybe they did and kept going. I can’t imagine they produced any of these, it was all computer modeling and that is where this all falls apart. If the hype is based on guesswork, what happens when you run into an obstacle? A shorter range heavier car…

If this is the issue, they need to start applying some of their famed first principle thinking to a new way to cool batteries. And better still dial back their rhetoric at battery days.

 

[Mrbrock]

If this is the issue, they need to start applying some of their famed first principle thinking to a new way to cool batteries. And better still dial back their rhetoric at battery days.

Dial back rhetoric and bring in less money from investors?

 

[advocate8]

Dial back rhetoric and bring in less money from investors?

yeah. but just a LITTLE less aggressive?
On a harder note... just throwing this out there... what if the 4680s just can’t be made to deliver the current MYLR or MYP range at about the same weight under any circumstances? They clearly are putting in 4680 battery production lines at Austin and Berlin and have plans to buy more from outside. So these batteries surely are going in most MY’s at some point. They’re not just developing them to be the equivalent of iron-based batteries for SR-level cars only.
But what if this means they end up decreasing the range of the MYLR and/or P or RAISING the weight? In other words, what if instead of making the MYLR and MYP better, they make them not as good?
My gut is, they have the goal in sight for better peformance for the weight ....but aren’t quite there yet with cooling or whatever. But we’re not seeing anything encouraging here.

 

[rhk109]

Alright, i think I'm finally catching on and letting go of the dream of getting a upspec'd 4680 MYLR with my current order EDD of 9/22. Anyone willing to speculate with me for fun while I continue to wait...

What do you experts think I actually receive delivery of? Austin or Freemont build? 4680? Range? etc?

If they do announce a SR+ MY AWD soon, do you think there will be an opportunity for current order holders to transition order to that model at an assumed discounted price?

 

[tangible1]

yeah. but just a LITTLE less aggressive?
On a harder note... just throwing this out there... what if the 4680s just can’t be made to deliver the current MYLR or MYP range at about the same weight under any circumstances? They clearly are putting in 4680 battery production lines at Austin and Berlin and have plans to buy more from outside. So these batteries surely are going in most MY’s at some point. They’re not just developing them to be the equivalent of iron-based batteries for SR-level cars only.
But what if this means they end up decreasing the range of the MYLR and/or P or RAISING the weight? In other words, what if instead of making the MYLR and MYP better, they make them not as good?
My gut is, they have the goal in sight for better peformance for the weight ....but aren’t quite there yet with cooling or whatever. But we’re not seeing anything encouraging here.

When the Tesla hype machine goes quiet, you have to expect there's a reason.
We are all speculating, and with some reason and some logic, but speculation is what it is.

We have no hard facts, only the observations of voyeurs with drones. Or clickbait from voyeurs.