Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Hunt3r]

You know... This is one of those things which will cause many people to rethink purchasing an EV.

Not so muc the repairability but the ability to get a new battery pack . You can get a used ICE car thats 100 years old and get it on the road , they all have different motors but they all run on the same basic fuel. Every EV has a battery pack which is unique to their car so unless the manufacturer continues to make old battery packs or a third pary comes along making after market versions ( That structural would be a challange) all these $100k cars are going to become paperweights. Ideally they will unify the battery into a standard config in the future.

I have never sold a car I bought new. I have either drove them until they BZ4X'd or handed them on to another family member. But I feel like I am going to have to sell my Tesla to get any type of long term value out of it . ( Unless someone can guarentee battery availability for the next 50 years.

Nah, bunch of companies have been refurbing and modding packs for years and more are starting up. One recently revealed it's Tesla replacement/upgrade pack capable of 700+ miles on a charge.

It'll be exactly like ICE cars in just a few year in regards to replacement parts, packs and upgrades. Even easier on an EV IMO.

 

[Twiglett]

aaaand - back to the speculation of what Munro will find once they continue the careful dissection of the hostile witness that will try to kill them at every turn.
Will it be the large pack with software lock
or will it be a partially populated pack
Is the extra weight coming from the needed structure or from extra cells?
Enquiring minds want to know.

Somewhere, deep in Tesla engineering in Austin there is a charity pool based on all the incorrect wild theories on pack construction. They probably troll through TMC looking for the best wild theories just in case they need them in the future

 

[ZenRockGarden]

aaaand - back to the speculation of what Munro will find once they continue the careful dissection of the hostile witness that will try to kill them at every turn.
Will it be the large pack with software lock
or will it be a partially populated pack
Is the extra weight coming from the needed structure or from extra cells?
Enquiring minds want to know.

Somewhere, deep in Tesla engineering in Austin there is a charity pool based on all the incorrect wild theories on pack construction. They probably troll through TMC looking for the best wild theories just in case they need them in the future

I'll take a swing at the guessing game:

I predict Munro will find:

o 4 banks of 4680 cells
o 168 cells per bank
o 672 total cells
o 98.5 Wh usable per cell
o 67 KWh usable per pack
o foam padding on outer sides sufficient to allow future 5th bank, ~840 cells, 82 KWh very similar to existing MYLR
o total weight of pack is slightly lower than 2170 pack - weight savings countered by heavy pink foam and metal to assure robustness
o cell packing density lower than original "960 total max" due to large cooling snakes instead of "bottom cooling plate"

Above info +/- a couple percent in all cases

 

[Mrbrock]

aaaand - back to the speculation of what Munro will find once they continue the careful dissection of the hostile witness that will try to kill them at every turn.
Will it be the large pack with software lock
or will it be a partially populated pack
Is the extra weight coming from the needed structure or from extra cells?
Enquiring minds want to know.

Somewhere, deep in Tesla engineering in Austin there is a charity pool based on all the incorrect wild theories on pack construction. They probably troll through TMC looking for the best wild theories just in case they need them in the future

What Zen said. No reason to speculate further. They are not wasting cells software locking then starting an entire 2170 line from scratch to make LR when all they have to do is unlock if this were true. Use common sense people.

 

[voxel]

You know... This is one of those things which will cause many people to rethink purchasing an EV.

Not so muc the repairability but the ability to get a new battery pack . You can get a used ICE car thats 100 years old and get it on the road , they all have different motors but they all run on the same basic fuel. Every EV has a battery pack which is unique to their car so unless the manufacturer continues to make old battery packs or a third pary comes along making after market versions ( That structural would be a challange) all these $100k cars are going to become paperweights. Ideally they will unify the battery into a standard config in the future.

I have never sold a car I bought new. I have either drove them until they BZ4X'd or handed them on to another family member. But I feel like I am going to have to sell my Tesla to get any type of long term value out of it . ( Unless someone can guarentee battery availability for the next 50 years.

All modern cars are disposable. The only exception maybe Toyota who continues to use old 10 year tech in their cars (i.e my 2021 RAV4 Prime had 2014 level infotainment and controls). IMO there are too many complicated sensors and chips that won't survive 15 years.

As a long-time Kia owner (and new Telluride owner) I don't except Hyundai/Kia to last 120K miles... basically they should self-implode before 120K due to question engine engineering decisions. VW, BMW, Audi - good luck with those after 5 years.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

All modern cars are disposable.

This is the exact thinking that stopped me from putting XPEL on my Y

 

[Threader]

This is the exact thinking that stopped me from putting XPEL on my Y

Looking at my horribly paint chipped front end Model 3 made me realize how I hated seeing an expensive new car full of road scars. Invested 1.5% of the overall cost of my new Model Y for a full front PPF with A pillar coverage up to the rear hatch. Sure I also know folks who never wash their cars and leave it filled with trash. To each his own.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Looking at my horribly paint chipped front end Model 3 made me realize how I hated seeing an expensive new car full of road scars. Invested 1.5% of the overall cost of my new Model Y for a full front PPF with A pillar coverage up to the rear hatch. Sure I also know folks who never wash their cars and leave it filled with trash. To each his own.

I like a clean car inside but I never washed or waxed my last two cars. I drove the one for 15 years until it died and the paint was bleached off half the car. My other is 6 years old , my brother does wash that one since he drives it. I have a lift in my garage so I did any mechanical and service myself.

If I was concerned with resale ( or was trying to impress someone) then I'd worry about washing it but if I intend on letting it be a single owner car I don't invest any time or treasure in worying about the shell. I haven't decided what I want to do with the Model Y long term yet so I'm still treating it nice for now.

 

[DanCar]

Estimates about 150 cars a day produced, about 1K per week. About 10:20 into the video.

 

[Senpai]

Estimates about 150 cars a day produced, about 1K per week. About 10:20 into the video.

yea i saw that vid. I wonder where all those Model Y are going, it seems our dates are being pushed back

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Explains alot about what we are seeing with the MY AWD

 

[Brolan]

The cliffs notes version is the 4680 has a 15% penalty because it doesn’t use silicon in the cell and the case is much heavier.

Heavier makes sense because if the batteries are becoming structural members in the car they can’t be paper thin like 2170s.

Most interesting was they talked about the 4680 chemistry improvements the next few years. Seems like the smart move is to wait a year or two for those improvements instead of the inferior version now.

 

[kabin]

I get the feeling CT and semi production start-up will continue to slip.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I get the feeling CT and semi production start-up will continue to slip.

I don't think it will slip but what they make first may change. So instead of the 500 mile , 4 motor 4 wheel stearing version you may only see 250 mile single motor version.

 

[Brolan]

They like to take the big money first so my guess is the most expensive version is first. But the price will be eye-watering.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

They like to take the big money first so my guess is the most expensive version is first. But the price will be eye-watering.

They did say the 4 motor 500 mile version would be first but if their batteries aren't ready they will need to put something out with less range and less efficiency and it may be easier to push out the 1 or 2 motor varients until the batteries are ready.

 

[uscbucsfan]

They did say the 4 motor 500 mile version would be first but if their batteries aren't ready they will need to put something out with less range and less efficiency and it may be easier to push out the 1 or 2 motor varients until the batteries are ready.

Very slim chance they make a single motor anytime soon.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Very slim chance they make a single motor anytime soon.

I'd agree. They will learn as fast as they can on the MYAWD to get 4680 pack experience, and then build high-end CT and Semis even if the range is a bit less than the future max - it'll be the most expensive variants first so they can ship in small volume and get press plus high margins as they ramp those products.

 

[Mrbrock]

I'd agree. They will learn as fast as they can on the MYAWD to get 4680 pack experience, and then build high-end CT and Semis even if the range is a bit less than the future max - it'll be the most expensive variants first so they can ship in small volume and get press plus high margins as they ramp those products.

Yes, they can take the 15% penalty on a 500 mile vehicle that doesn’t exist yet. So you only get 425? Take it or leave it. There isn’t a longer range 2170 version available to fall back on like there is with the MY.

 

[Twiglett]

Yes, they can take the 15% penalty on a 500 mile vehicle that doesn’t exist yet. So you only get 425? Take it or leave it. There isn’t a longer range 2170 version available to fall back on like there is with the MY.

rather OT for this thread, I don't recall if they made mention of Cybertruck having structural pack or not? I don't think so, but so much has changed.
I'm guessing the new found volume from Austin is mostly Y-LR with 2170's, which I'm happy with. The more practice they get making those before they make mine, the better