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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
you're assuming they had sufficient 4680 cells to do that rollout.
It's a safe bet they didn't.
there are so many variables we don't know that all we are doing is useless speculation.
I'm waiting for Munro to get further along in their pack teardown. But even that won't cover all the variables for some time.
Opinion with no fact….. Do I think a company like Tesla invested Millions on equipment, assembly lines, materials, and promotion having never proved the science or capability of the new battery. Hell no. In my opinion there is no chance they went this far without making prototype samples and tests to ensure a profitable and improved product. Would a revolutionary discovery or improvement be advisable with 1 year of sales and commitments? Hell no that would be a catastrophe pushing every sale off the cliff. Let alone thousands of used Teslas flooding the market. Again just an opinion but I suspect there is more to this then they made a mistake or they can’t make enough. With Billions at stake trying a “I think this might work” is Not a play a company of this scale would make.
No doubt they can spend like a drunken sailor. However, I've heard senior management in an earnings call scoff at the need to budget for R/D. They seem to march to a different beat until the school of hard knocks beats them silly. They've admitted the 4680 isn't working as expected and that's tough to spin.
Tesla engineers: "how hard can it be? it's just batteries !!"
Panasonic: "production is hard" (sorry Elon, you may have bit off a bigger chunk than you thought)
Elon definitely has a history of going 'all in'. Not that the decision was wrong, but Tesla also has a history of taking longer than expected to deliver.
LR from Austin are all 2170 packs... I don't think Tesla is going to do this until their 4680 production truly ramps since they need 4680 cells for CT and Semi. If anything chances Berlin would get converted before the US are probably higher.
Mrbrock
Active Member
How many cybertruck reservations are there? 1.5 million. 300 mile cybertruck is going to need at least 100kwh battery pack (guessing 150kWh). If the initial pack pictures were correct with 82kwh LR with 818 cells, that’s 1000 (1500) cells for cybertruck. 1.5 billion cells just for cybertruck reservations. If there is a 50% take rate it drops to 750 million. At 100,000 CTs per year that’s 100 million cells. 275,000 per day, just for cybertruck.
Now let’s look at a 4680 MY. 800 cells per car times 400,000 per year (Fremont and Austin at 200k each). 320 million per year. 420 million cells per year including CT. Over 1 million per day. Not counting Semi which I think will have a higher focus with the new $40k tax rebate coming online.
D
What is more important to Tesla? Switching over an existing car with no issues regarding 2170 or bringing a new model with much more potential revenue online?
This is a pretty simple one guys. MY AWD is an engineering exercise and placeholder to keep Austin busy until they iron out CT production. Then all 4680 will be CT or Semi unit 4680 production
Not to mention that the first CT's are suppose to be the 500 mile versions which puts even more strain on the 4680's.
I will say that I will not buy another EV with 300 mile range . I knew the tesla range was BS before I purchased the MY and depending who is driving we get between 70% and 75% of the stated range . In part due to driving 80ish and being in florida where the cabin is getting to 140+ every day so the heatpump is always going full tilt.
I am also charging using the 75/25 rule (for battery longevity) which gives me about 110 miles of nominal range and 55 Miles of reserve so I could go back and forth to work twice without any unexpected detours . Its just not enough of a buffer for me. If there is an emergency I don't want to have to stop and charge somewhere so yea the 500 mile CT is the only one I am going to take . I'll keep the Y for more local driving .
I will say that I will not buy another EV with 300 mile range . I knew the tesla range was BS before I purchased the MY and depending who is driving we get between 70% and 75% of the stated range . In part due to driving 80ish and being in florida where the cabin is getting to 140+ every day so the heatpump is always going full tilt.
I am also charging using the 75/25 rule (for battery longevity) which gives me about 110 miles of nominal range and 55 Miles of reserve so I could go back and forth to work twice without any unexpected detours . Its just not enough of a buffer for me. If there is an emergency I don't want to have to stop and charge somewhere so yea the 500 mile CT is the only one I am going to take . I'll keep the Y for more local driving .
My friends and I got three separate MYLR orders
Different order time: March May June
Different configurations
All in Nor-Cal
We all have the same ED now: Dec 14-Feb 8
Does this mean there will be a surge in production at Austin and orders were allocated that way?
Funny I did almost the exact as you, but mine is Nov - Jan, and I’m hoping Jan if the Senate bill passes.
Chances are going to be low because only Fremont is making the 7 seaters and both Fremont /Texas are cranking out as many 5 seat MYLR as they can.
Mrbrock
Active Member
Almost 0. Like 0.00000001% chance it will be 4680. If they were going to do 4680 LR they would already be doing it at Austin. Why build a 4680 line and do 279 mile range then a completely separate 2nd line for 2170 LR?
They will not ship cars from Austin to NorCal when there is a plant in Fremont. In the very very unlikely event they start doing 4680 LR that would mean they have enough cells for this so they would likely change Fremont over at that time. That means a shutdown and those with Fremont orders would be delayed. They aren’t going to create new logistics to ship cars west from Texas just for a short period of time. They will just build that into the EDD for orders originating from Fremont.
Based on what we have heard, Austin production should not negatively affect West Coast orders at all. It is likely your alignment in EDD has to do with the earlier order being non-optioned (or low production like 7 seats) and the later orders having options that Tesla prioritizes.
What makes you think there is a completely separate 2170 line at GigaTexas? (My understanding is that they upgraded the line to be flexible to be able to create either variant.) Are they even making any 4680 based AWDs anymore?
Mrbrock
Active Member
Because I think they said they were building a 2170 line. And everyone on here who disagrees with me saying they can’t use 2170 batteries in 4680 designed cars. They the front castings are incompatible with anything other than the floorless 4680 structural pack. If it were the same line, they’d need to build completely different 2170 packs than what Nevada is producing for Fremont so they could replace the structural pack.
If they did convert the 4680 line it likely means they aren’t making those anymore and those were just a stopgap until 2170 could ramp once they realized they couldn’t make 4680 equal 2170. And now they are stockpiling cells for other uses.
I didn't see anywhere where they said that. This is what they said in the Q1 slide deck:
It doesn't say anything about a new line. Then the Q2 slide deck says this:
Saying that it is flexible makes me think that they just updated the line to be able to do either.
No they aren't. The front castings have nothing to do with the battery pack.
No, they wouldn't need a different 2170 pack, they would just need an additional step in the line to add a structural load floor to the existing body-in-white.
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ZERO chance of 4680 MYLR from Austin this year.
ZERO chance of NoCAL delivery of a MYLR from Austin when volume manufacturing of the MYLR is in Fremont.
4680 is a requirement for the CT and SEMI to be built, and they're supposedly on track for mid-2023.
They each use enormous numbers of 4680 cells.
Volume production of 4680 is still in ramp-up mode, and 3rd party sources (ie Panasonic) won't come online for another year.
If Tesla is serious about starting deliveries of CT and SEMI next year, those vehicles will get the majority of 4680 production.
And that doesn't consider the Roadster requirements (likely not a deliverable until 2024).
it remains unknown.
there's been requests, but no postings yet from Austin MYLR recipients regarding the nature of their chassis construction.
it's a simple ask, but apparently no one can take a front wheel off to see the front chassis piece, or use a magnet to test if it's steel or aluminum.
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