Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[tangible1]

The 4680 Austin production area is inside the main building on the north end, but is still unfinished, but hardware being placed for near-future assembly. Meanwhile, the cathode building to the north-east of the main building looks about half done. Tesla is planning for lots and lots of battery production there as well, if only sub-assembly of supply. By the end of Q1 2023 much of the machinery will be in place to make this all happen. The cars are ramping; the battery production will need to also slowly ramp.

Actually, there are at least 4 production lines for the 4680 batteries operating at this time in Austin. Yields are unknown, as is volume, but they are making them.
4680 production is also proceeding at the Kato Road facility in Fremont. Again, yield and volume info is sparse.
Tesla is very tight with information and runs a Master Class in Internet Marketing, seemingly responsive and proactive. But only what they want gets out.

Compete battery packs were coming in from Kato Road Fremont facility earlier but that seems to have ended. No more trailers full of battery packs.
What they have on hand for 4680 packs at Austin now seems to mostly be local production, being stored on 3rd floor of the General Assembly area, which is adjacent to the battery section. They have 4-unit high stacks of both 4680 and 2170 packs visible thru the windows in videos. Probably visible deliberately.

The Cathode Plant exterior is mostly complete but fitting out the facility remains at best 1/4 done. If the main plant is any guide, they're 3 months from working. According to Tegtmeyer, they're expecting initial shipments of Lithium Spodumene in early Q1 for processing at the new plant.

 

[towndrunk]

The sad part is... still 2170 cells. Where are the 4680 Ys???

That's the main reason I cancelled my PY order 2 weeks ago.

 

[tangible1]

.....and reduces prices

Tesla (TSLA) gives $3,750 discount for Model 3/Y in the US this month

Tesla (TSLA) is giving a $3,750 discount, which it is calling a “credit,” for every Model 3/Y vehicle delivered in the US in December.

electrek.co

Cancelations having an impact

its the tax credit effect, just like 2021 with the (failed) BBB legislation.
the discounts can move some cars if people aren't gonna qualify for the credits anyway (ie high income, or config too expensive)

 

[Mrbrock]

That's the main reason I cancelled my PY order 2 weeks ago.

Why? 4680 is currently lower performance and range. You actually wanted that? The best performing Tesla is Model S Plaid and guess what batteries it uses. 18650. Newer and bigger isn’t better. As stated numerous times, 4680 is about saving Tesla money on a wh basis. It’s not about performance. Vehicles that require more cells (CT and Semi) will cost much more unless cost per wh can be reduced.

 

[Fairchild]

From tonight's announcement, it sounds like they are stacking the 4680s for the SEMI and CYBRTRK which will demand them.

With later plans to incorporate them into the 3 and Y, perhaps with the 3 refreshes. You are absolutely right. It's not about getting you better performance in your car (how much more acceleration does one need to go to the grocery store?) It's really ALL about maximizing profit for Tesla (getting more range and faster charging out of a smaller battery pack). Tesla has clearly stated that the Model 3 refresh will be all about consolidating Model 3 assembly, reducing parts and simplifying operations, most importantly expanding profit margins. BTW, no raises for employees either, unless you are working an 80-hour week and even then, it won't be long either before we will be replacing you with bots.

Tesla Model 3 refresh coming with even more controls via the display, sources say - Autoblog

Tesla is refreshing the Model 3, according to sources, as it aims to cut production costs and boost the appeal of the five-year-old electric sedan.

www.autoblog.com

2024 Tesla Model 3 Facelift With An Even More Simplified Interior In The Works | Carscoops

First introduced in 2017, the Model 3 is reportedly getting an update in late 2023 under the 'Highland' code-name

www.carscoops.com

Customer comments:
At some point, it's so "minimalist" that the car you spend a ton of money on feels no more special than public transport. Tesla is so focused on growth, that it's losing sight of what makes car ownership special.

They'll make it cheaper to assemble but you won't see them sell it at a lower price.

The next Tesla will have nothing inside but seats. The rest will be mind control. The sole exterior choice for color will be a new color called "greyblackwhite" and it will cost extra.

Hell, who needs seats??

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FUNCTIONALISM TRUMPS MINIMALISM;
Remember the first Teslas with no coat hanger hooks?
And why can't we have ultra-safe lane change lights on mirrors? Why look right toward the screen, when changing lanes to the left? Monitor is worthless.
A mirror warning light also lets the other driver know that you know they are there. Double safety.
Unless of course, he's monitoring your center screen!! Or the other driver is tuned in to your brain chips!

"If I didn't have a quick eye and foot, I would have been T-boned at head-level last week by a high-riding JEEP, that accelerated to run a red light."
My View was blocked by the truck in the other left turning lane, who initially moved forward and then stopped."
"YP launched forward and JEEP missed the back quarter panel by mm." See it on WAM BAMM The YP instant acceleration saved my life. The side warning light may have helped.

I genuinely miss my 2014 Model Ss with FREE SUPERCHARGING FOR LIFE, FREE FULL ENTERTAINMENT, FREE GARAGE DOOR OPENER, FREE MAP ENHANCEMENT, FREE th REMOTE CONTROL on KEY FOB and Mobile EYE Auto Pilot with FREE AUTO LANE CHANE, with No phantom braking and NO $15,000.

 

[tangible1]

From tonight's announcement, it sounds like they are stacking the 4680s for the SEMI and CYBRTRK which will demand them.

With later plans to incorporate them into the 3 and Y, perhaps with the 3 refreshes. You are absolutely right. It's not about getting you better performance in your car (how much more acceleration does one need to go to the grocery store?) It's really ALL about maximizing profit for Tesla (getting more range and faster charging out of a smaller battery pack). Tesla has clearly stated that the Model 3 refresh will be all about consolidating Model 3 assembly, reducing parts and simplifying operations, most importantly expanding profit margins. BTW, no raises for employees either, unless you are working an 80-hour week and even then, it won't be long either before we will be replacing you with bots.

Tesla Model 3 refresh coming with even more controls via the display, sources say - Autoblog

Tesla is refreshing the Model 3, according to sources, as it aims to cut production costs and boost the appeal of the five-year-old electric sedan.

www.autoblog.com

2024 Tesla Model 3 Facelift With An Even More Simplified Interior In The Works | Carscoops

First introduced in 2017, the Model 3 is reportedly getting an update in late 2023 under the 'Highland' code-name

www.carscoops.com

Customer comments:
At some point, it's so "minimalist" that the car you spend a ton of money on feels no more special than public transport. Tesla is so focused on growth, that it's losing sight of what makes car ownership special.

They'll make it cheaper to assemble but you won't see them sell it at a lower price.

The next Tesla will have nothing inside but seats. The rest will be mind control. The sole exterior choice for color will be a new color called "greyblackwhite" and it will cost extra.

Hell, who needs seats??

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FUNCTIONALISM TRUMPS MINIMALISM;
Remember the first Teslas with no coat hanger hooks?
And why can't we have ultra-safe lane change lights on mirrors? Why look right toward the screen, when changing lanes to the left? Monitor is worthless.
A mirror warning light also lets the other driver know that you know they are there. Double safety.
Unless of course, he's monitoring your center screen!! Or the other driver is tuned in to your brain chips!

"If I didn't have a quick eye and foot, I would have been T-boned at head-level last week by a high-riding JEEP, that accelerated to run a red light."
My View was blocked by the truck in the other left turning lane, who initially moved forward and then stopped."
"YP launched forward and JEEP missed the back quarter panel by mm." See it on WAM BAMM The YP instant acceleration saved my life. The side warning light may have helped.

I genuinely miss my 2014 Model Ss with FREE SUPERCHARGING FOR LIFE, FREE FULL ENTERTAINMENT, FREE GARAGE DOOR OPENER, FREE MAP ENHANCEMENT, FREE th REMOTE CONTROL on KEY FOB and Mobile EYE Auto Pilot with FREE AUTO LANE CHANE, with No phantom braking and NO $15,000.

ROBOTAXI !!!!!

 

[jsight]

From tonight's announcement, it sounds like they are stacking the 4680s for the SEMI and CYBRTRK which will demand them.

I didn't see anything about cell form factor. What did I miss?

 

[JHCCAZ]

I didn't see anything about cell form factor. What did I miss?

I didn't hear that either. The short discussion about Semi and Cybertruck was in reference to the new "1000 volt" platform architecture. This is a major change to be sure, but there's no reason I know of that it would be incompatible with non-4680 cells, or vice versa.

 

[Fairchild]

Inference.
Why else would they be stacking them and not using them extensively on the Model 3s and Model Ys?

I would think the weight/range demands of the CYBRTRK and SEMI, would certainly require the increased efficiency (faster-charging capacity and greater density) of the 4680s.

Imagine pulling a trailer behind to carry all of your 2170s and having dinner for three hours while waiting to max charge.

 

[bkp_duke]

Inference.
Why else would they be stacking them and not using them extensively on the Model 3s and Model Ys?

I would think the weight/range demands of the CYBRTRK and SEMI, would certainly require the increased efficiency (faster-charging capacity and greater density) of the 4680s.

Imagine pulling a trailer behind to carry all of your 2170s and having dinner for three hours while waiting to max charge.

Elon already said the Semi first iteration will use 2170s.

 

[kabin]

Inference.
Why else would they be stacking them and not using them extensively on the Model 3s and Model Ys?

I would think the weight/range demands of the CYBRTRK and SEMI, would certainly require the increased efficiency (faster-charging capacity and greater density) of the 4680s.

Imagine pulling a trailer behind to carry all of your 2170s and having dinner for three hours while waiting to max charge.

I think that was the plan but so far all thing 4680 haven't panned out. I think the team originally said there were potential risks for the 4680. Hopefully they get a handle on it before CT production.

 

[Fairchild]

True.

Essentially prototypes as they work the bugs out of the 4680s. Something to get the semi on the road.

He said that it’s not a “game-changer” when it comes to the mass, especially if you are using a structural battery pack, as Tesla unveiled at Battery Day last year. Tesla plans to make the battery pack with its new 4680 cells a structural part of the vehicle’s chassis. Tesla - Always a work in progress.

While he didn’t answer the question of the battery pack’s size, we can make a pretty good guess with the efficiency figure he did provide.
In the lead-up to the first deliveries, the Semi completed a 500-mile (804km) journey on a single charge while fully loaded at 81,000lbs. Using Musk’s figure of 1.7kWh per mile, that equates to a battery pack of around 850kW.

We say around because additional data shared last night showed the Semi actually only used up 93% of its battery capacity, indicating it can actually travel further than 500 miles, making the battery pack likely closer to 900kWh or more.

 

[tangible1]

True.

Essentially prototypes as they work the bugs out of the 4680s. Something to get the semi on the road.

He said that it’s not a “game-changer” when it comes to the mass, especially if you are using a structural battery pack, as Tesla unveiled at Battery Day last year. Tesla plans to make the battery pack with its new 4680 cells a structural part of the vehicle’s chassis. Tesla - Always a work in progress.

While he didn’t answer the question of the battery pack’s size, we can make a pretty good guess with the efficiency figure he did provide.
In the lead-up to the first deliveries, the Semi completed a 500-mile (804km) journey on a single charge while fully loaded at 81,000lbs. Using Musk’s figure of 1.7kWh per mile, that equates to a battery pack of around 850kW.

We say around because additional data shared last night showed the Semi actually only used up 93% of its battery capacity, indicating it can actually travel further than 500 miles, making the battery pack likely closer to 900kWh or more.

you're needing to figure in regen energy.
kinda hard to do.
battery pack probably closer to 1000kWh

 

[ZenRockGarden]

That's the main reason I cancelled my PY order 2 weeks ago.

You do know that the fastest bestest Tesla in existence (Plaid) runs on 3 generation old 18650 cells right?

The 4680 is gonna save Tesla money and assembly time. Despite the powerpoint bullets from 4 years ago the 4680 is not gonna deliver longer range.

 

[bkp_duke]

You do know that the fastest bestest Tesla in existence (Plaid) runs on 3 generation old 18650 cells right?

The 4680 is gonna save Tesla money and assembly time. Despite the powerpoint bullets from 4 years ago the 4680 is not gonna deliver longer range.

"3 generation old" is a misnomer in this case. The chemistry has changed at least 3 times in the 18650 cells. Only the "shape" is 3 generations old.

I will also point out, the chemistry improvements even in those 18650 cells have not all been fully moved over to the 4680 cells. Without increasing cell count, Tesla will be able to get at ~20% more range out of their 4680-equipped cells than they currently do. The Limiting Factor YT channel has a fantastic breakdown of the differences and headroom left in the 4680 cells.

 

[Fairchild]

You do know that the fastest bestest Tesla in existence (Plaid) runs on 3 generation old 18650 cells right?

The 4680 is gonna save Tesla money and assembly time. Despite the powerpoint bullets from 4 years ago the 4680 is not gonna deliver longer range.

Got that right. Tesla will be able to squeeze greater range out of a smaller more efficient battery yielding less overhead and greater profit.
Cast body will also save considerable construction costs and time. Don't expect any of that savings to be passed on to the consumer.
Gotta pay for Twitter in some way!

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Got that right. Tesla will be able to squeeze greater range out of a smaller more efficient battery yielding less overhead and greater profit.
Cast body will also save considerable construction costs and time. Don't expect any of that savings to be passed on to the consumer.
Gotta pay for Twitter in some way!

I had hoped for at least some weight savings, but at least in current form, the mega-cast structural battery setup is just about exactly equal to the older multi-piece frame - just easier to put together.

 

[Mrbrock]

"3 generation old" is a misnomer in this case. The chemistry has changed at least 3 times in the 18650 cells. Only the "shape" is 3 generations old.

I will also point out, the chemistry improvements even in those 18650 cells have not all been fully moved over to the 4680 cells. Without increasing cell count, Tesla will be able to get at ~20% more range out of their 4680-equipped cells than they currently do. The Limiting Factor YT channel has a fantastic breakdown of the differences and headroom left in the 4680 cells.

The headroom only works if their proposed processes actually come to fruition. There is a chance they can’t work out the production process and are stuck with larger cells that have the same energy density as 2170 and might not save any money. At some point they will likely achieve this but after how many months/years and billions invested and how long to get any return from the process?

 

[bkp_duke]

The headroom only works if their proposed processes actually come to fruition. There is a chance they can’t work out the production process and are stuck with larger cells that have the same energy density as 2170 and might not save any money. At some point they will likely achieve this but after how many months/years and billions invested and how long to get any return from the process?

Sorry, but this is just not going to happen. Elon was VERY clear on battery day that the first iteration of the 4680s would be conservative, and chemistries would change over time, etc.

The chemistries are PROVEN technologies, they are relatively easy to incorporate. The changes that Tesla is working through are the hard ones (DBE). The literally fired their equipment supplier because the equipment they were providing was not up to Tesla specs, and Tesla decided to then in-house the production of this gear (probably from the Grohmann automation team Tesla bought 5+ years ago).

 

[tangible1]

The headroom only works if their proposed processes actually come to fruition. There is a chance they can’t work out the production process and are stuck with larger cells that have the same energy density as 2170 and might not save any money. At some point they will likely achieve this but after how many months/years and billions invested and how long to get any return from the process?

"it's just batteries - how hard can it be"

We'll never know about their progress or costs until Tesla wants us to.