LasVegas2019
Member
I completely agree with you except the timing. The market is going to go much lower before the insanity stops. Then it will be time to buy.
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Model Y Launch/CoronaVirus/Likely Recession
- Thread starter zedtava
- Start date
jkoya
NA2 NSX
On the subject of panic - I was at Costco yesterday and there was a huge line from the very back of the store all the way to the front registers. I asked a Costco employee what the line was for. She said it was a line to get toilet paper. Because of the panic, she said they have to ration the toilet paper so no one customer could horde everything...
LasVegas2019
Member
idiots. God help us if there ever is a real life threatening global pandemic. And the real currency will be cigarettes and booze. Not TP.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Does that mean you don't like debt? I see COVID-19 as a bit of a lemons/lemon-aide situation. It's destroying equities but making $$$ ~free. The fed is expected to cut another ~75 pts soon. Taking inflation into account that means loans will be ~free. Try to find a good 1.9% auto loan or refi the house.
Hoping for the payroll tax cuts as well as the Fed getting interest rates to negative as they are in Japan ASAP. Trump has built a great economy, so sad to see the politicians and Fed fighting against what he knows needs to be done.
if a mild virus can severely hurt an economy that says a lot about any presidents ability to control the economy. It goes up and down.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Hhhhhhmmm, gambled may be a strong word. I have a portfolio that includes fixed and equity (probably a lot like your portfolio). As of the beginning of the year, we had some extra money that we could "afford" to get a nicer car for my wife. That has changed because of a severe and unprecedented situation. If I had all of my money in "fixed" returns, I would never retire and probably wouldn't get anything nicer because that money doesn't work over the long run. If anything, our overall investments are probably very conservative compared to the normal family.
Please let me know the next time there is going to be a major dip and I will move my money ahead of time
Are we going to get a new car for her still? Yes. Maybe we wait a bit longer now though. Will it be a new Tesla? Probably not. I simply don't want to take on those interest payments. Down the road we will get it. I just hope Tesla can absorb this mess and we pull out of this nosedive. The panic is nuts atm.
The stock market and interest rates, with all their randomness, are built on an implicit trust on the future - a bet that tomorrow things will be as good or better than today. That trust , for the short-term future (6mo) is eroded - and in a very warranted way. The pandemic is real and will cause lots of pain and damage. This is a biggie, in my informed opinion (" early detection and early response" was until recently was my line of work, with CDC, WHO, dx & med companies, national health systems, etc). As workforces, health systems, etc adapt, and diagnostics and treatments improve, things will get better.
The stock market is not ... a source of wisdom, and never has. PLEASE don't extrapolate your views about panic (there is always some) into trying to convince others that there is nothing to see. Stay healthy people.
feigen66
Member
As I have 1st hand experience on SARS (students died in the college where I studied, and being quarantined by people wearing bio-suite, Ebola style), COVID-19 is no where near as lethal as SARS (2% vs 20% mortality rate -- and hit healthy people the most). It was apocalypse when you would not know you could wake up by the next morning. That was real horror.
What I am seeing here is the economic damage caused by the uncertainty and the lack of coordinated response. And now it's too late to contain and we are dragged into a long fight.
Money we can earn it back if we live long enough. Enjoy your life as life is too short.
What I am seeing here is the economic damage caused by the uncertainty and the lack of coordinated response. And now it's too late to contain and we are dragged into a long fight.
Money we can earn it back if we live long enough. Enjoy your life as life is too short.
feigen66
Member
My reason to stay on course buying a Tesla is the long term investment of this planet -- and it's fun to drive not like I am buying a Leaf. A much bigger economic cost awaits with all the raging wild fire and draught.
Getting rid of the ICEs I have will dramatically reduce our carbon footprint one step closer to neutral.
Getting rid of the ICEs I have will dramatically reduce our carbon footprint one step closer to neutral.
MXLRplus
Active Member
Like I said, 575,000 deaths from a pandemic in 2009/2010 and the market skyrocketed upwards. Over a billion people infected, and it seemed the worse the pandemic hit, the faster the market climbed.
What is different? It wasn't an election year, nobody was interested in shorting the market, the media wasn't coming unglued.
feigen66
Member
I am not so sure. My wife just got summoned to the office. It's recommended. Not mandatory.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Also no community spread outside China. Also oil consumption wasn't through the floor. Also OPEC and Russia were still on speaking terms.
rxlawdude
Active Member
I don't think mazers was suggesting changing your overall asset allocation to be heavily in fixed. You can have different investment goals for long term and short term that do affect your overall asset allocation, e.g., long term you want say 70/30 but for a near term large purchase maybe 30/70, and depending on how much money you have saved/invested, your overall asset allocation might look like 68/32.
But it sounds like what you're actually getting at isn't really related to having cash on hand to purchase a Model Y. Even if the money to purchase the Tesla was in your bank account, you no longer feel comfortable spending relatively larger portion of your net worth on a new vehicle where potentially that money can go towards retiring earlier or other goals.
It's reasonable to reassess large purchases when the situation has changed, and you suggested delaying for now, and things might change again in a few months.
