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Model Y Lease - Need some input

Jjr077266

Member
Dec 24, 2019
14
7
New jersey
So, in New Jersey right now you get a $5,000 rebate on any EV for lease OR purchase.

So that means, for the new Model Y lease, in theory, your down payment (plus another $500) could be used to reduce the effective monthly cost on the lease. A few things..

- I know making a down payment on the lease is not a good call. So for the case of this example, i would pocket the 5,000 and effectively reduce the lease payment by $5,000/36 months = $138/month.

So if we just did a $0 down payments lease at 10k miles but still paying the $1,800ish inceptions up front, the effective monthly in NJ would be around $530/month after you factor in the $5k rebate.

Do that rebate make any more sense because you are using it over a 36 month term vs financing? Im struggling with the lease/finance scenario because I'm a "new car every 3 years" person.

Thanks for your input
 

ndstreet

Member
Feb 6, 2020
6
1
new jersey
Hey guys - didn't see any post on follow up here.

I'm in an identical situation for NJ. Im deciding between a 36 month lease vs buy; and am similar to the original poster in that my plan is to trade it in for another Tesla in 3 years.

Trying to decide between the following on a Model Y LR in Gray:

3 year 36 month lease, most likely 10k miles - 647/m (with 0 down) plus 1342 up front (which includes 1st month) - total cost 24k

Purchase outright for 51k

NJ gives you $5k back in a tax rebate.

My best guess is that the 5k is taken off the purchase price in a flat purchase, or can be used as a down payment in a lease. Assuming so,

Purchase - $46k
Lease - $498/m plus 1193 (which includes 1st month) - 18.6k

My assumption is in 3 years, I will trade in my Y for a new Tesla.

If I assume a 60% trade in value off the full purchase price (is that right?), then they should give me 30k credit towards the new car, so my cost of ownership was $20k. It seems like residuals are actually higher but I want to be a bit conservative here. At 70% which is closer to what Tesla residuals are at, it only costs me $15k for the 3 years of ownership.

So it looks like a Lease is actually a decent deal, unless the Model Y holds its value for a trade in 3 years from now above about 64%. But if I factor in the opportunity cost of my $50k sunk into the car making no money, it probably favors the lease more.

Am I thinking about this correctly?

Note, I have not factored in taxes yet. I'm assuming I pay 7% on the full sales price in a purchase (3500) vs. only 7% on the lease payments (1400), if that is the case, then its another factor in favor of leasing.

Thanks in advance for all your help.
 

hakunamattata

Member
May 28, 2020
145
55
New Jersey
Hey guys - didn't see any post on follow up here.

I'm in an identical situation for NJ. Im deciding between a 36 month lease vs buy; and am similar to the original poster in that my plan is to trade it in for another Tesla in 3 years.

Trying to decide between the following on a Model Y LR in Gray:

3 year 36 month lease, most likely 10k miles - 647/m (with 0 down) plus 1342 up front (which includes 1st month) - total cost 24k

Purchase outright for 51k

NJ gives you $5k back in a tax rebate.

My best guess is that the 5k is taken off the purchase price in a flat purchase, or can be used as a down payment in a lease. Assuming so,

Purchase - $46k
Lease - $498/m plus 1193 (which includes 1st month) - 18.6k

My assumption is in 3 years, I will trade in my Y for a new Tesla.

If I assume a 60% trade in value off the full purchase price (is that right?), then they should give me 30k credit towards the new car, so my cost of ownership was $20k. It seems like residuals are actually higher but I want to be a bit conservative here. At 70% which is closer to what Tesla residuals are at, it only costs me $15k for the 3 years of ownership.

So it looks like a Lease is actually a decent deal, unless the Model Y holds its value for a trade in 3 years from now above about 64%. But if I factor in the opportunity cost of my $50k sunk into the car making no money, it probably favors the lease more.

Am I thinking about this correctly?

Note, I have not factored in taxes yet. I'm assuming I pay 7% on the full sales price in a purchase (3500) vs. only 7% on the lease payments (1400), if that is the case, then its another factor in favor of leasing.

Thanks in advance for all your help.

The good thing about NJ is there are no sales tax on EV's regardless of buy or lease. Effectively the initial payment = $695 acquistion fee for leases + first month - $499 in this example and registration which for 4 years is about $320 which gives a total of $1514. Based on some posts etc, the money factor for Tesla Model Y is around 0.002019. Reverse engineering the residual value it comes to around 66.5% or 10K leases and 65.6% for 12K leases

The $5K rebate is a flat value regardless of buy or lease.

The only issue with Model 3 and I am assuming it is the same for Model Y is that you cannot purchase the car at the end of the lease term. Which can be helpful if the resale values are higher three years from now.

I hope this helps
 

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