Model Y likely in 2020, based on Musk interview w’ Bloomberg

[anticitizen13.7]

‘The Last Bet-the-Company Situation’: Q&A With Elon Musk

What's the next project that you’re most excited about?

The Model Y. We've almost finished the design in the studio of Model Y, and we will probably debut the prototype, you know, roughly in March of next year. Maybe I shouldn’t tempt fate, but I did say March 15 as kind of a joke.

Did you finish up the design already?

We're a few months away from finishing the design. You finish the broad brush strokes, but there are still a lot of fine brush strokes. The broad brush strokes, we're maybe a few months away from finishing.

If Tesla demonstrates a prototype of Model Y in March 2019, I believe that the earliest we are likely to see First Production cars is Summer of 2020. Depending on pace of production ramp, I wouldn’t expect large build volumes until late 2020 or 1H of 2021.

 

[R.S]

‘The Last Bet-the-Company Situation’: Q&A With Elon Musk



If Tesla demonstrates a prototype of Model Y in March 2019, I believe that the earliest we are likely to see First Production cars is Summer of 2020. Depending on pace of production ramp, I wouldn’t expect large build volumes until late 2020 or 1H of 2021.

Depends on a lot of factors, like carryover from the 3 and where it will be built. If it's tightly based on the 3 and they don't come up with some new weird design thing that's super complicated to do, I could see them going into production soon after they show the prototype.
Also depends on how finished that prototype is, or it it's just a concept that will look like the future Y, but is not fully developed, yet.

Interesting article by the way. Alien dreadnought is now basically just another car factory. At least it sounds cool...

 

[ProtonSF]

Summer 2020 seems doable, even with Elon time.

I'm really curious to know what type of vehicle the Y is going to be; it seems like Tesla has most market segments already filled... the luxury sedan, the mid-price sedan, the SUV, the consumer truck, and the semi truck. I can only speculate, as others have, that the Y will be some sort of crossover between a sedan and the SUV... although this doesn't make much sense since the Model X is seen by many as being a crossover.

I can see the Y being something like the Subaru Ascent or Honda CRV -- more for sporty people who need extra space without needing a full SUV.

On the other hand, I can also see Model Y being the most futuristic car yet -- since Elon expects full self-driving around the same time the Y will be in production, the entire interior design can be completely revolutionary.... e.g. a home-like interior with lounge chairs and a beefy entertainment system.

 

[Barklikeadog]

hopefully they resolve any and all falcon wing door issues beforehand

 

[Model 3]

I'm really curious to know what type of vehicle the Y is going to be; it seems like Tesla has most market segments already filled... the luxury sedan, the mid-price sedan, the SUV, the consumer truck, and the semi truck. I can only speculate, as others have, that the Y will be some sort of crossover between a sedan and the SUV... although this doesn't make much sense since the Model X is seen by many as being a crossover.

Model X was introduced as an CUV, not a SUV. And just like Model 3 is a smaller lower cost sedan then the Model S, it is assumed that the Model Y will be a smaller lower cost CUV then the Model X.

 

[electracity]

hopefully they resolve any and all falcon wing door issues beforehand

I heard the minisub had a problematic falcon wing door.

 

[mongo]

hopefully they resolve any and all falcon wing door issues beforehand

My understanding is one of the core issues was the original design used hydraulics for the door movement instead of electric actuators. They won't make that mistake again...

 

[electracity]

‘The Last Bet-the-Company Situation’: Q&A With Elon Musk



If Tesla demonstrates a prototype of Model Y in March 2019, I believe that the earliest we are likely to see First Production cars is Summer of 2020. Depending on pace of production ramp, I wouldn’t expect large build volumes until late 2020 or 1H of 2021.

If they build it in Sparks they would need a paint shop and two general assembly lines. They possibly have the capacity to do the stamping in Fremont. They may have enough backhaul capacity to do the seats in Fremont too.

The distribution capabilities and staff hiring in Sparks are questions.

Tesla isn't going to want to discuss building the Y in Fremont or Sparks until they have a better idea of the depth of model 3 demand. If model 3 demand is a solid 500K/year they can start the model Y at $45K-50K.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If they build it in Sparks they would need a paint shop and two general assembly lines. They possibly have the capacity to do the stamping in Fremont. They may have enough backhaul capacity to do the seats in Fremont too.

The distribution capabilities and staff hiring in Sparks are questions.

Tesla isn't going to want to discuss building the Y in Fremont or Sparks until they have a better idea of the depth of model 3 demand. If model 3 demand is a solid 500K/year they can start the model Y at $45K-50K.

It's a growing region. As long as housing development continues, I think people would move for the jobs:
More bars, more houses, and other Reno trends to watch for in 2018

 

[sidmini]

so do we think the Y will have falcon wing doors on conventional? will it have pano windscreen? 7 seats?

 

[electracity]

so do we think the Y will have falcon wing doors on conventional? will it have pano windscreen? 7 seats?

Definitely a two row SUV/CUV. Personally I don't like FWD, but if the starting price point is well above the model 3 those doors are probably a smart move. Tesla needs to remain well differentiated from the coming competition.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

so do we think the Y will have falcon wing doors on conventional? will it have pano windscreen? 7 seats?

Conventional. Falcon wing door issues haven't been resolved enough to risk it on another vehicle.
Pano available.
7 seats, hmm, maybe. As a global vehicle it would make sense to have a 6 or 7-seater version. Might not be sold in the USA even if they make it. Efficiency requirements might constrain shape and limit to 4 + 2.

 

[Barklikeadog]

so do we think the Y will have falcon wing doors on conventional? will it have pano windscreen? 7 seats?

elon musk said that either the model Y or 3 will have FWD. Well the 3 doesn't have it so...

 

[Model 3]

elon musk said that either the model Y or 3 will have FWD. Well the 3 doesn't have it so...

Yes, but that is a long time ago, and he have changed his mind about a lot of other thing about both the 3 and the Y since then. So he may just as well have changed his mind about that also...

 

[david_42]

Several articles have the Model Y being built in the upcoming China factory. If it is a compact SUV, that would make a great deal of sense.

 

[EinSV]

Several articles have the Model Y being built in the upcoming China factory. If it is a compact SUV, that would make a great deal of sense.

The exact location hasn’t been announced yet but the Model Y will almost certainly be built in the US first and then in the GFs in China and probably Europe.