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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by electracity, May 4, 2017.
Fremont will be full, so I think Nevada.
In the Q1 2017 Earnings Call yesterday, Elon talked about how the Model Y will not only be built on an entirely new platform but will be designed for even more rapid production than the Model 3 using a radically different production line. So I expect that the Model Y factory will be built from scratch and won't be simply an expansion of the existing Fremont factory. Combine that with the fact that Elon has stated more than once that given a choice he would not site a factory in California due to the greater cost, I believe the Model Y factory will not be in Fremont or even in California. But I do expect it to be in the US. Nevada is a possibility, but there are various southern states that would be good candidates, states where other automakers have also sited factories due to the cost advantages. And I expect a new Gigafactory (for batteries) to be associated with the new Model Y factory. The existing Nevada Gigafactory running at peak capacity will likely be dedicated to Model 3 production at Fremont and to Powerwalls and Powerpacks.
Elon said in the recent TED interview that by the end of this year Tesla will announce the locations of at least 2 future Gigafactories and possibly up to 4. At that time I think we will have a pretty good idea of where the Model Y factory will be: it will be next to one of the future US-based Gigafactories.
Model Y will be one of the 3-4 new gigafactories announced later this year. Definitely in the U.S. but not in California.
Others will be Europe, China (and India if it's 4 instead of 3).
It will be built in the Fremont plant on the same line as the Model 3 (just like the S and X are now).
Didn't he say 2019 for the Y? Didn't Strobel say that there was more space on the gigafactory grounds in the earnings call? (it was hard to tell with the mumbling and bad audio)
Tesla would need to be far along in planning a specific factory site to make 2019. It does seem likely that the prototype Y factory would be at the gigafactory.
If Nevada doesn't work it would be for lack of employees or transportation. The empty high desert and low taxes probably looks like paradise compared to metro SF. I'm going to guess that the gigafactory is going to become the terafactory. Aluminum and lithium in - cars out.
not as of yesterday. new platform, new process
No, it won't, because Elon said very clearly that the Model Y will be built on a completely different, all new platform.
There are a lot of places, including a lot of the Southern auto factory locations, where Tesla really shouldn't build a factory because the high-quality engineers they need simply won't be willing to move to those cities. I mean, Atlanta's OK, but a lot of the rest of the South is not. Many of these states have openly attacked electric cars in general and Tesla's direct-sales model in particular, too.
I think Musk is smart enough not to build anything at all in Florida, since it's going under the waves soon.
Chicago, maybe. A lot cheaper than the West Coast or the East Coast, but you can get engineers to move there. And it's a state which hasn't attacked Tesla specifically or electric cars in general.
Since the Model Y will be built in an alien dreadnought, the factory will be in Earth orbit. Falcon 9 boosters will be used to lower the cars to the surface of the Earth at the designated sales locations. No longer need to waste time going by train, truck or boat from the factory to the destination.
No need for an F9, use gravity and then Super Dracos for a soft landing.
Why? That's easy. I know who, and where, but when and how are vague.