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Model Y P vs Rivian R1S

S4WRXTTCS

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May 3, 2015
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Snohomish, WA
I'm a big fan of the Rivian vehicles and my wife has an R1T reservation, but I think this is spot on. I can't see the R1S ever competing on price vs Model Y going forward (beyond the one-off honoring of early reservations). Consider how well-optimized all of Tesla's costs are, how much simpler a vehicle the Model Y is, Tesla's purchasing power for supplies/materials, etc. *If* Rivian manages to ramp up R1S production someday, and the R1S is still priced close to a Model Y, I guarantee Tesla will have WAY more profit margin in the Y pricing and will cut into it if needed to defend their market share.

I think R1S vs Model X is actually the more interesting and relevant comparison. If Rivian is successful at ramping up the R1S, and it's still cheaper than a base X, Tesla might have to cut X prices a bit to compete. Again though, I can't see Rivian sustainably competing with Tesla on price + volume for a long while.

The nice thing about the Rivian R1S, and the Tesla Model X is they compete in different spaces.

Sure there is some overlap, but they're each very distinctive vehicles with ideal use cases.

The R1S has its off-road capability that impacts the psychology of a buying decision, and the way a vehicle is marketed. Rivian has done an excellent job of playing into this marketing. Things like the long way up show on AppleTV. So its going to be very attractive to outdoors people.

The Model X on the other hand competes more on road handing, kid carrying type basis. It won't appeal as much to outdoors people, but as high end soccer mom/pop type vehicle its attractive. It also has the Supercharger network going for it, and Tesla's track record.

I don't see any price cutting on either of them other than maybe some reduction in inflation related prices if costs go down. Instead Rivian will come out with a cheaper/smaller model that's better positioned to compete with the Y, and is simpler. The R1S has a lot of complexity with its air suspension, and the quad motor set up.

The challenge for Rivian will be to scale up production, and achieve profitability. It's tough to sell a vehicle to the masses if there are question marks about how long they'll be in business for.
The challenge for Tesla is the lack of anything new.

In any case we're in exciting times where there are viable options other than Tesla.
 

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
6,813
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Snohomish, WA
Again, comparing Tesla cars with something that doesn't even exist or not widely available for the average people is too early. It is all guessing game based on the paper spec and advertisement. (please correct me if I am wrong). :cool:
Given the current supply chain situation we have to give some allowance for a wait time. Even the Model X can be out almost a year, and things like the Mach-E GT are around the 28+ week time frame.

I think anything around 12 months or less is fair game.

I reserved my R1T in Dec 2021, and received it in June 2022. They told me I'd get in Sep of 2022, but then one became available early that matched my config. I had previously changed my config to match what was being made.

I do think the odds of getting a quad motor R1S in under a year from a reservation are pretty good especially if a person is flexible on the exact config. We tend to see manufactures working through reservation lists quicker than anticipated because people get cold feet or they change their minds. Like I thought about deferring as I wanted to wait for a later batch to see if any quality issues showed up.

All that being said I think a Rivian is different enough from any Tesla that I don't expect a lot of cross shopping.
 

ohmman

Upright Member
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Feb 13, 2014
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North Bay, CA
In my experience on road trips the R1T is surprisingly efficient. In fact I was able to go 244+ miles with an 85% charge, and I still had 10% left in range.
The majority of my driving is not road trips - it's around town through hills and in stop and go traffic. For my max pack, the estimated efficiency was kissing up against 500Wh/mi. I get 270Wh/mi on my X LR++ and 280Wh/mi on my S P85. I'm assuming it will be even less for the Y, so probably about twice as efficient, give or take.

I just don't need a truck for around town. It was for a slight leg up when pulling the Airstream (more range, theoretically, but less charging convenience, and more storage) and for occasional mulch runs. I have an aluminum utility trailer I can use for the latter. My kids are also outgrowing long camping trips with the parents (they're teens) so it's even less useful. I still think they're neat vehicles, though, especially for the right buyer.
 
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All that being said I think a Rivian is different enough from any Tesla that I don't expect a lot of cross shopping.
I think it would be more fair to compare the Rivian R1S against the Cybertruck (when it will be available) than against the Model Y.

I also imagine that Rivian has a project of building a new R2S truck similar in size and price to the Tesla Model Y.
 

BMWY

Member
Mar 29, 2021
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SJ
Also keep in mind that Rivian and Lucid are in the same position now that Tesla was in about a decade ago. The big difference is, the competition is leagues better than it was back then. I'd say there is a 90% chance that one or both get bought or go under altogether at some point, so you really need to ask yourself if you want to take that risk.
 

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
6,813
8,319
Snohomish, WA
Also keep in mind that Rivian and Lucid are in the same position now that Tesla was in about a decade ago. The big difference is, the competition is leagues better than it was back then. I'd say there is a 90% chance that one or both get bought or go under altogether at some point, so you really need to ask yourself if you want to take that risk.

What competition is their for Rivian?

No one else makes an off-road worthy EV SUV like the R1S
No one else makes an EV Adventure Vehicle like the R1T

Rivian has three vehicles in their line up if you include their Amazon Cargo Van which you have to when talking about the long term viability of a company.

Anyway we look at it we see demand outstripping supply especially in SUV's, Cargo Vans, and Trucks.

The biggest obstacles EV companies face are supply chain, scaling up production, and consumer charging concerns.

If Rivian fails its going to be due to mismanagement (scaling too quickly) or failure to execute.

There are a lot of comparisons to Tesla, but the world is different than it was 10 years ago. The EV market is established which makes it so much easier in a lot of ways. There are also a ton of goals from various states to transition to EV's quickly which is going to accelerate the market.

Rivian doesn't have to sell people on EV's
They just have to sell people on their EV

There definitely is the risk that Rivian will fail for some reason, but I think the higher odds are that it will get bought out. Even if it doesn't fail I can see them being bought out.
 
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Lots of great thoughts here. I just compared builds for a R1S vs Model Y. I tried to keep as similar as possible.
MY: LR, tow hitch, 7 seats, EAP, 320 mi: $79k
R1S: Explore, Dual motor, large battery 320 mi: $78500 with tax credit...

I mean, why would anyone buy a Y? Charging network, available soon, don't need 7 seats. But for us we are going to go with the R1S.
Seems a bit unfair to tack on 6k for EAP on the Y. And until it actually exists (has EPA rating at least), shouldn't configure a R1 with the dual motor.

Still, the R is a massively larger vehicle and I do think it's hard for the Y to compete against it, IF you ignore the other concerns (Rivian viability, can I fit it into my garage, etc). The longer charging time will also be a consideration for those who do the 500-1000 mile trips more often.
 
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S4WRXTTCS

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May 3, 2015
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Snohomish, WA
This is what's happening now exactly. so there's risk definitely.

I definitely don't like some decisions they made, but then again I didn't like a lot of the decisions Elon/Musk made either. Especially the whole lets buy twitter one, and selling Science fiction (FSD) wasn't such a good idea either.
 
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S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
6,813
8,319
Snohomish, WA
Seems a bit unfair to tack on 6k for EAP on the Y. And until it actually exists (has EPA rating at least), shouldn't configure a R1 with the dual motor.

Still, the R is a massively larger vehicle and I do think it's hard for the Y to compete against it, IF you ignore the other concerns (Rivian viability, can I fit it into my garage, etc). The longer charging time will also be a consideration for those who do the 500-1000 mile trips more often.

It's not fair to tack on 6K for EAP on the Y until Rivian releases their assisted lane change. The Rivian Driver+ doesn't currently have anything Basic AP doesn't have. Once Rivian has assisted lane change then its fair to tack on the EAP as its the only way to get auto lane change.

In terms of size a much better match would be the Model X as its nearly the same length, and width. The battery in an X is also much closer in size at 135 kWh (the current one).

I think what we're really seeing is the Model Y is simply over priced. It makes sense if one looks at it from demand/supply, but its over priced for anyone willing to wait.

Plus no Tesla qualifies for the $7500 tax credit
 
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S4WRXTTCS

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May 3, 2015
6,813
8,319
Snohomish, WA
one big limiting factor is that Rivian version of AP is only available on "pre-mapped" highways only, just like GM's super cruise, which makes this entire fancy features not very usable since you have to find that pre-mapped highways. :cool:

This one is an oddity that I hope they fix.

I don't mind hands free being limited to pre-mapped highways.

But, it's a bit odd to have the non-hands free being limited that way. It absolutely knows if I'm holding the steering wheel using the capacitive sensing so it can know the moment I take my hands off.

That being said most of my usage of AP was on divided highways which are typically mapped so I don't expect much issue with Rivians system. I rarely used AP on undivided highways due to the +5mph limitation.
 
Neither part of that statement is remotely close to true. In fact, both parts of your statement are totally false.

First, issues with Tesla's autopilot and phantom braking have actually *risen* after recent updates. Secondly, it's a myth that Tesla was ahead of all other manufacturers, much less "years" ahead. Numerous objective third-party reviewers, including Road and Track, Car and Driver, and others have found the driver-assistance features in Cadillacs, Fords, and Volvos, in particular to equal or exceed the capability and safety of Tesla's. Moreover, I've had both a Model Y (two years) and a Volvo all-electric XC-40 Recharge (one year) on my driveway and find the two systems to be comparable, with the lane-keeping generally better through turns on the Tesla, but the overall stability and phantom braking issues with the Volvo to be far superior. Phantom braking has been nearly non-existent with the Volvo, but continues to this day with my Model Y.
That's pretty sad considering my 2015 Model S with AP1 still works beautifully at keeping dead center in the lane with little to no phantom braking. It can even take sweeping long curves on the freeway at 75MPH. Maybe it's because radar is no longer being used for new Tesla's.
 

nate704

Active Member
Apr 20, 2021
1,517
1,422
Virginia
That's pretty sad considering my 2015 Model S with AP1 still works beautifully at keeping dead center in the lane with little to no phantom braking. It can even take sweeping long curves on the freeway at 75MPH. Maybe it's because radar is no longer being used for new Tesla's.
The post that you just quoted is not true. the phantom braking has not risen at all. The reviews from R&T and C&D are highly negative biased. MY MYP (no radar) has no Phantom Braking and can take any curve at 85 mph all day long without drifting off the centerline. Also, your awesome radar does not see the lanes and has nothing to do with lane keeping function (please correct me if I am wrong).
 

cusetownusa

2022 LR5 MSM/Bl | 19"
Jan 29, 2020
1,052
2,105
Syracuse NY
That's pretty sad considering my 2015 Model S with AP1 still works beautifully at keeping dead center in the lane with little to no phantom braking. It can even take sweeping long curves on the freeway at 75MPH. Maybe it's because radar is no longer being used for new Tesla's.

Not sure how true that is. I have over 2000 autopilot highway miles (2022 MY no radar) and have never experienced phantom breaking. Even on very curvy roads in the mountains my car had zero issues staying in the center of the lane.
 
I currently have a 2018 Performance Model 3 with FSD, and I'm in the final process of getting a Rivian R1T. I haven't decided yet on whether I'll trade my Tesla in on the Rivian or if I'll trade my Jeep Wrangler Unlimited in on the Rivian.

For me both of them have their strengths and weaknesses.

With Tesla its by far the Supercharging network being really solid, and dependable. I could travel places without much concern about being able to charge. Sure the Range has never gotten anywhere close to the promise 310 miles, but it Superchargers quickly and its not too big of a deal.

The biggest weakness of Tesla is the lack of customer engagement. There are so many things that don't work like they're supposed to, and it can be maddening. For example the automatic lights no longer turn on in the rain during the day like they used to. Now you have to make sure to turn them on manually or you'll be one of those idiots who doesn't use their lights in the rain.

FSD progress has been painfully slow, and even the AP experience isn't at the level where I wish it was. What I want is an ultra smooth AP experience on freeways with minimal phantom braking (no more than one moderate one per 1K miles). What I currently have AP that's barely useable during stop and go because it accelerates too much. It basically launches forwards. It used to be fine in early builds, but it's been pretty bad for awhile now.

Overall I love my Model 3 when I drive it manually, and its okay on the freeway while on AP as long it's not stop and go. The NoA never worked to the level I wanted to due to mapping issues. There is no way to report maps issues where Tesla fixes them.

With Rivian I expect to lose out on things I really like about Tesla like the trip planner, and the navigation is supposedly way worse.

In a lot of ways its going back to how things were with Tesla back in 2015 when I bought a Model S. Sure it didn't have all the features they now have, but it was an exciting time.

As long as Rivian gives me Dash Cam, Sentry Mode equivalent, and auto lane change with their driver+ system I'll be pretty happy.

Most of my decision really comes down to the fact that Rivian is the new shiny thing, and I've wanted a TRUE 4x4 EV for awhile.

Over the last decade or so the roads around me have really deteriorated. So I find myself more relaxed when I drive my Jeep as I can just run things over. I can also see over bushes that they never cut down just to see whether someone is coming when I turn onto a road.

If I keep driving my Model 3 I'll probably get arrested for taking a chain saw after bushes that grew too high to see over them. :p

If I do trade in my Model 3 what I'll miss the most is curvy Mountain roads.

What I won't miss is the Safety Score. Ugh, that sucked just so bad. So glad I finally got FSD beta so I wouldn't have to do that again. But, FSD Beta never really did much for me. If FSD beta did useful stuff I doubt I'd trade the Tesla in.
That's very disheartening to hear when you consider my 2015 Model S with AP1 works flawlessly on the freeway, keeping the car dead center, rarely phantom brakes, and stops and starts super smoothly in traffic. I think it may have to do with removing radar from the systems. But I'm not sure.
 

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