I remain convinced that Tesla's desire to continue to lower COGS and possible future supply chain resolution will drive down their vehicle prices. They can target 30% margin all they want, but if VW and other lower-cost EV manufacturers can increase production, they will lose sales. Maybe they don't care, because they still could have demand that outstrips supply, but if it pulls buyers away from MY sales (which Musk has stated is going to be their long-term sales leader), they will be forced to change. I'm tired of hearing "they sell every car they produce". All auto manufacturers are in that situation. It's not like there are fields of unsold new vehicles that are destroyed when they don't sell.
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Model Y price cut may come when demand is satiated?
- Thread starter Terminator857
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jpy1980
Member
Supply vs demand. They'll keep the prices as high as possible while also sustaining growth. Elon just hinted they are chip constrained and will be into 2023... and won't be releasing the CT til then.
If they are chip constrained into 2023, you can kiss any price decreases in the next 12-18 months goodbye, especially with the current backlog.
If nothing else changes, $59k in 18 months will be pretty spot on for $51-52k in January 2021 (so 2.5 years later). I don't see them cutting back prices til then, and I don't see them dropping to a below February 2021 price. So... I don't see Model Y prices going down at all, if anything prices will rise a little and maybe fall back to current levels 18 months from now... at best.
Generally agree. Although I know lots of interesting EVs are coming in a couple of years. So can't last much longer than that. VW Mini bus, Ioniq 7, Kia EV 9, etc...
Tesla costs are going down. When demand slows down, they can easily and will lower their prices, though not this year.
Why? It's a publically traded for profit company, they'll want to make what they can. Dont kud yourself, they aren't going to lower prices out of charity, regardless of their margins.
Econ 101. Tesla has lowered its prices in the past to stoke demand. They will do it again if they have to. They're in the business of maximizing profits.
But you pull up in a Kia, Hyundai or VW people will not look at them same as pulling up in a Tesla. Oh that’s nice vs. Wow. Tesla was smart starting out in the High End market then making more affordable models (still expensive).
Yes, if they have to. That's a huge if. Its far more likely they just don't raise them again for quite a while.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
When demand drops below supply, then Tesla car prices will drop.
Assuming that all happens within a reasonable amount of time. The US is already at a combined inflation of nearly 10+% in the last 24 months. It'll likely be another 5-10% in the next 24 months. That effectively amounts to 15-20%+ price decrease had prices remained the same (which they didn't, they went up). I'm not so sure that we'll see discounts on an order that exceed that kind of inflation, especially when you fold in the significantly higher cost of lithium that is not expected to decrease, even as the chip shortage is slowly resolved.
I think prices may drop, but it'll be more likely they increase again at some point imo... and then drop back down from there to current levels.
We'll see, pure speculation by all of course - I'd love to see them drop mind you, granted it would suck to pay $64k for a MYP that only cost $62k 6 months later!
In 1960s, the Ford Mustang was ~$4k for a top of the line car. People couldnt even sell them during the oil embargo.
Now new mustangs exceed 10x that price. If history is any lesson, regardless of short term blips in the foreseeable future, prices will go up in the long run.
You might get a screaming deal on old tech, if something revolutionary hits the market in terms of charging times or range, but dont expect a general turn around months/years long price decrease that goes sub $50k.
Now new mustangs exceed 10x that price. If history is any lesson, regardless of short term blips in the foreseeable future, prices will go up in the long run.
You might get a screaming deal on old tech, if something revolutionary hits the market in terms of charging times or range, but dont expect a general turn around months/years long price decrease that goes sub $50k.
You made me look. Apparently, CPI is up 8.5% from Dec 19 to Dec 21. To your point, with this kind of inflation, we should probably be talking in real dollars rather than nominal.
That's fair, I thought it and inflation for that matter were closer to 10%. That said, there's disagreement over what inflation will be like this year - some think it'll be 3%, some think closer to 6%. Regardless, that's a lot of inflation to combat in addition to rising prices on lithium and labor. Folks seem to forget that even if we can magically bring the cost of lithium down and solve the chip issue, labor will still cost more (as will other materials).You made me look. Apparently, CPI is up 8.5% from Dec 19 to Dec 21. To your point, with this kind of inflation, we should probably be talking in real dollars rather than nominal.
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