I guess at least you know exactly how much a lease is going to cost with zero doubt. How much is the lease per month? I can't see lease option for MY on Tesla site.I do get what you're saying, and I've always used PCP in the past, but the current environment is very strange in the short-term (the X5 I'm part-exing is worth more than I paid for it 10 months ago) but (for me) the delta in payments between lease and PCP is just over £12k. Now, the balloon on the PCP at the end of 4 years does feel very low and it may be that the equity in the car is worth more than £12k over balloon at the end of the term and I'd lose out.
When I bought the X5 there was nothing in it in between the lease and PCP monthlies, and I've seen the benefit of the current market, so I get the argument for PCP over lease (especially with no road tax benefits on a BEV) but I guess what it comes down to here is lower upfront monthly costs vs. the added flexibility the PCP brings and the ability to benefit from any valuation uplift throughout the term or at the end. All that being said, if you're adding options to the car I'd say you'd be better off with PCP. We talked before about you taking the 20" wheel and seeing the benefit in residuals at the end, whereas I'd be paying £40pm for no real benefit thereby representing a true cost to me.
I think the sweet spot for trading in a PCP or loaned Tesla is around 2 years, and I think Tesla trade in values will always be very strong, because they want you to buy another car. For me 4 years is an incredibly long time to be stuck in a car with virtually no way out, in fact even 3 years is a long time considering how often Tesla update the car's spec. Ultimately I'm confident that the absolute worse case scenario is I could lose as much as it would have cost to lease, but with huge possibility for it to cost significantly less.