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Model Y - UK estimated dates and pricing.

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I like my 2019 Tesla M3 very much but I have been looking forward to the opportunity to trade in for a MY, but if a faster cheaper similar range slightly smaller Kia EV6 arrives first, which looks likely, I will certainly look very closely. EV6 LR AWD v MY and EV6 GT v MYP.

I am having similar thoughts about going from MS to MY or EV6 instead. Just struggling to imagine giving up the supercharging network, even though I've probably used it less than 6 times.
 
It's an interesting one .. once real alternatives to the supercharger network come on line then I think the Tesla hype will be left for fan boys - the difference between minimalist and cheap; automation promises that don't work (or take so long to arrive it becomes a joke). And I can easily see a situation where alternative self drive systems are being quietly worked on and suddenly roll out as working systems without all the bull-hype promises first.
Fun times ahead but hard to know what to wait for or what to jump to right now. I'm torn between hanging on to my S after the warranty period or swapping out for something cheap and practical and waiting it out. My original plan was that the S was going to be a temporary car 'til the roadster was available.. but Rt hand drive is still years away at Tesla progress....
 
no RWD Y yet? Feels like with both Mach E and ID4 having 'normal' and 'extended' batteries, and RWD/AWD options - so 4 combinations - I wonder if Telsa has to rework their lineup generally?

I'd have been likely to have gone for a RWD LR model 3 as I didn't need AWD and the price pushed me to the SR+. For others, the pricing of a limited number of options may push others towards other brands entirely
 
no RWD Y yet? Feels like with both Mach E and ID4 having 'normal' and 'extended' batteries, and RWD/AWD options - so 4 combinations - I wonder if Telsa has to rework their lineup generally?

I'd have been likely to have gone for a RWD LR model 3 as I didn't need AWD and the price pushed me to the SR+. For others, the pricing of a limited number of options may push others towards other brands entirely
There was an SR+ for the Y briefly, but then it got pulled. I agree they should consider a RWD LR, they did have it for a period on the 3 in the US.
 
why not? There will be crazy demand for the Y. No doubt about it. Comparable with an etron, jag etc. Quicker and more range. Tesla have found their feet in the Uk and that means price rises


£60k for Kia! Yep £70k for a Y sounds about right
Because it's against their mission to overcharge for something just cos they can. 3 and Y are almost the same car, a 10k difference when Y is cheaper to produce makes no sense other than ripping off customers. 3P is already overpriced as it is.
 
Because it's against their mission to overcharge for something just cos they can. 3 and Y are almost the same car, a 10k difference when Y is cheaper to produce makes no sense other than ripping off customers. 3P is already overpriced as it is.
They are in the making money business. A lot of money. Of course it’s a rip off, but they Y is going to be crazy popular. There is an opportunity for huge margin in the UK because we are stupid enough to pay for it.
 
They are in the making money business. A lot of money. Of course it’s a rip off, but they Y is going to be crazy popular. There is an opportunity for huge margin in the UK because we are stupid enough to pay for it.

Ok, I attended their shareholder meetings as well as seen their policies and practices for the past 2 years and this is simply not true.

You can read the mission statement About Tesla | Tesla

And see the consistent history of price cuts (UK included) and aggressive expansion plans to back it up.

But you believe what you want.
 
Ok, I attended their shareholder meetings as well as seen their policies and practices for the past 2 years and this is simply not true.

You can read the mission statement About Tesla | Tesla

And see the consistent history of price cuts (UK included) and aggressive expansion plans to back it up.

But you believe what you want.
How is it not true? So a £10k premium for a P over a LR M3 is part of their Mission Statement is it? That’s value for UK customers is it? Tesla exist to make profit. They will exploit markets to maximise profit. Hence a huge queue of people waiting to take delivery of a P in the UK. Of course it’s only my opinion but I firmly believe the YP will be £65k
 
Ok, I attended their shareholder meetings as well as seen their policies and practices for the past 2 years and this is simply not true.

You can read the mission statement About Tesla | Tesla

And see the consistent history of price cuts (UK included) and aggressive expansion plans to back it up.

But you believe what you want.
We all love the SuC network but I doubt it breaks even, even excluding the cars with free supercharging. I wonder how much per car goes into the support and expansion. A cost other manufacturers generally don t have. There is no such thing as a free lunch
 
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How is it not true? So a £10k premium for a P over a LR M3 is part of their Mission Statement is it? That’s value for UK customers is it? Tesla exist to make profit. They will exploit markets to maximise profit. Hence a huge queue of people waiting to take delivery of a P in the UK. Of course it’s only my opinion but I firmly believe the YP will be £65k
I had an M3P reservation before UK launch and after initial pricing was announced and orders confirmed they actually reduced the price by nearly £10k before delivery. There was no incentive for them to do that back then. They basically chose to reduce their profit margin for no good financial reason. Also at launch, the LR was a lot closer in price to the P so it was a lot easier to justify buying the P version - in fact almost a no-brainer.

I don't actually think the P model is over-priced today, it's more that the LR is under-priced in the UK. I really don't think the P is worth the £10k+ premium over an LR, but that is a slightly different argument!

I also agree that the YP is likely to be at least £65k, maybe even closer to £70k. Again not necessarily a rip-off, but might not be the best "value" model in the range. All depends how they price the LR relative to it.

But if you think Tesla pricing is a rip-off you are free to choose something else. The £60k Kia is probably its closest direct competitor. Is that better value without the Supercharger network and likely higher depreciation? Only time will tell.
 
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My wife is exercising her veto, she says that the smaller boot, ugly rear, and lack of glass roof on the EV6 means that the Y is still preferred.
Well she's not wrong! Having had a quick look I don't like the "boy racer" seats much either. I've got used to the chilled-out Tesla interior design vibe. I think it just looks cooler.

All Tesla need to do is improve their build quality and it looks like things are finally going in the right direction as they have started to move production away from the crappy old Fremont factory.
 
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Of course it’s only my opinion but I firmly believe the YP will be £65k

So after reading my post you disagree, but lower your estimate from 70k to 65k. That's an improvement I guess. I think you guys are forgetting about Berlin and the structural battery pack - go re-watch battery day to see the cost savings there. Berlin will be operational and making the first cars this summer (although not for UK)....

This is a massive cost reduction to shipping cars to this continent - might even be cheaper than China.

Model 3 margin is ~30% - which is backed up by their financial reports. As it's a publicly traded company those reports are public. Model Y is currently *cheaper* to manufacture due to lessons learned - fewer parts etc. Further to that Berlin will cast *at least* the rear of the car as one piece - this eliminates parts and 1/3 of the robots from the production line.

Their mission is to make and sell as many as possible. Tesla is battery constrained, if they can sell a Y vs an X that requires more complexity and batteries, they will.

We all love the SuC network but I doubt it breaks even, even excluding the cars with free supercharging. I wonder how much per car goes into the support and expansion. A cost other manufacturers generally don t have. There is no such thing as a free lunch
Their current automotive margin (which includes building superchargers and providing service) is ~20%. Fluctuates every quarter. You mean the electricity cost? To the consumer 1000 miles is roughly equivalent to £100. Tesla probably gets that much cheaper, probably 1/3 the cost, but lets say 50%. Average person drives around 10k miles, thats £500/y for the life of the car. Say 10 years, 10k on a model S with free supercharging. Thats only ~ 15% the cost of the car. They have 30% margins on the 3 and supercharging is not free. The *cost* of expanding the network and providing service lowers that to ~20% - as per their financial filings with the SEC.

Other manufacturers have the huuuuuge cost of dealing with their legacy products/factories/staff and developing their own software with their non-existent software teams. Oh and buying carbon tax credits from Tesla to the tune of billions - even if their make their own EVs - to offset the ICE they still manufacture in massive volumes.

VW will basically pay Tesla enough to pay for ~25% of Berlin gigafactory (estimated at 4 billion euro) : VW China venture buys green credits from Tesla to meet local rules

Even though VW is the most aggressive auto manufacturer to go into the EV space (Porche, Audi, VW EVs all owned by VW).


In short, the only reason they will price the YP at close to LR X price (90k) is if they don't want to sell the YP.
 
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All Tesla need to do is improve their build quality and it looks like things are finally going in the right direction as they have started to move production away from the crappy old Fremont factory.

Yep, once its a single cast piece front and rear the shot lines will be industry leading... It's all over the place now because welding the pieces together cases them to warp a bit and the design has very little movement allowance (to reduce cost) so you can't adjust it in the SC to be perfect.

To be fair the China Model 3s are much better and that isn't using casting yet.

You should watch the Monro ID4 teardown for a giggle, VW are so far behind its not even funny. I do hope they survive though, Tesla needs good competition.
 
There is competition from the ID4 and Mach e which will encourage Tesla to keep the Y priced well. In turn the Berlin factory and updates to manufacturing helps bring costs down to achieve that. But they also have to consider the model 3 - assuming there is a price premium for the larger car that could push model 3 LR prices down too
 
At the moment if we compare the Model 3 prices between the States and UK and extrapolate this to Model Y a LR AWD with no options comes out around 52k £.
At this though we need to consider the 10% import tariff which will not apply for Berlin made Ys. Therefore there is potential for the LR AWD Y to be priced around 47k. If this happens though it will completely destroy the market for 3 since there will be no 3s for a while with no import tariff.
Therefore Tesla will either have to take a hit on 3s and sell them with an even lower price tag and bordering losses or maintain the tariff addon as profit on Y.
Regarding the cost savings derived from Berlin; I am not expecting them to be massive. Battery material prices go higher, Transfer cost from China is not that big and wages on Germany are far higher compared to China (don't know about the states).
 
Their mission is to make and sell as many as possible. Tesla is battery constrained

Hence its their duty to make as much profit as possible so they can expand battery and car production, as well as increase the value of my stock. If people have nothing better to do with their money then buy a boy racer status symbol, then Tesla should charge however much these people will pay.
 
it’s fairly simple really. M3P is £60k. Do we agree a Y will be more expensive than a 3? Yes surely. So even this basic premise the YP is looking like £65k. It doesn’t matter where, how the Y will made etc. These are the facts currently. Do you really think the 3P is going to get a magic price reduction? Of what? £5k? More? Fantasy land if you’re hoping for a YP for under £60k even. Mission statement is Profit. That’s all. Like every company on the planet.

Despite this, I’m still swapping my 3 for a YP. It suits my needs better.
 
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Cost of production is unrelated to cost of sale. Things are sold for what people will pay for them.. basic economics.

All production cost does is determine whether you can make a profit or not.

The model Y being cheaper to make increases profits, not the price of the model Y. Tesla then reinvest into more gigafactories etc. but they're not going to sit there and make less profit to be 'nice' - if nothing else the shareholders would probably sue them.