Of course it’s only my opinion but I firmly believe the YP will be £65k
So after reading my post you disagree, but lower your estimate from 70k to 65k. That's an improvement I guess. I think you guys are forgetting about Berlin and the structural battery pack - go re-watch battery day to see the cost savings there. Berlin will be operational and making the first cars this summer (although not for UK)....
This is a massive cost reduction to shipping cars to this continent - might even be cheaper than China.
Model 3 margin is ~30% - which is backed up by their financial reports. As it's a publicly traded company those reports are public. Model Y is currently *cheaper* to manufacture due to lessons learned - fewer parts etc. Further to that Berlin will cast *at least* the rear of the car as one piece - this eliminates parts and 1/3 of the robots from the production line.
Their mission is to make and sell as many as possible. Tesla is battery constrained, if they can sell a Y vs an X that requires more complexity and batteries, they will.
We all love the SuC network but I doubt it breaks even, even excluding the cars with free supercharging. I wonder how much per car goes into the support and expansion. A cost other manufacturers generally don t have. There is no such thing as a free lunch
Their current automotive margin (which includes building superchargers and providing service) is ~20%. Fluctuates every quarter. You mean the electricity cost? To the consumer 1000 miles is roughly equivalent to £100. Tesla probably gets that much cheaper, probably 1/3 the cost, but lets say 50%. Average person drives around 10k miles, thats £500/y for the life of the car. Say 10 years, 10k on a model S with free supercharging. Thats only ~ 15% the cost of the car. They have 30% margins on the 3 and supercharging is not free. The *cost* of expanding the network and providing service lowers that to ~20% - as per their financial filings with the SEC.
Other manufacturers have the huuuuuge cost of dealing with their legacy products/factories/staff and developing their own software with their non-existent software teams. Oh and buying carbon tax credits from Tesla to the tune of billions - even if their make their own EVs - to offset the ICE they still manufacture in massive volumes.
VW will basically pay Tesla enough to pay for ~25% of Berlin gigafactory (estimated at 4 billion euro) :
VW China venture buys green credits from Tesla to meet local rules
Even though VW is the most aggressive auto manufacturer to go into the EV space (Porche, Audi, VW EVs all owned by VW).
In short, the only reason they will price the YP at close to LR X price (90k) is if they don't want to sell the YP.