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Monetary value of the MS/X refresh

Discussion in 'The UK and Ireland' started by LukeT, May 14, 2019.

  1. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    I haven't been an observer of this for long but it seems to me like now is a better moment to buy from the inventory than it was in the run up to the last quarter end and since. That said I probably still won't do it, for my own reasons.

    A good number of pre-refresh cars have appeared on the Tesla new inventory pages, at relatively good prices. They may have been there a few days, but not more. When I was looking before, I didn't generally see a material discount from buying from the inventory.

    Trying to be dispassionate it seems to me that the increase in real worth of a new 100kWh car over a pre-change 100kWh car would be less than the value premium was of a 100kWh car over a 75kWh car, because the principal (accepted, not only) real-world effect is 10% range. I guess the second hand market in a few years time may differentiate materially, but it may not.

    The "market" premium as defined by the difference between this car:
    Model S 100D 5YJSB7E22KF309155 | Tesla UK (picked simply because it's the colour I've ordered)
    and an otherwise identically specced custom order today is c.£12k.

    Interested to hear what you experienced folk think?
     
  2. theoceanwaves

    theoceanwaves Banned

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    That inventory vehicle is super value I paid £78k for a 90D in 2016 with not many options.
     
  3. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    Aye but two years is a long time in a new market.

    There are 18 100Ds on there, in the same range as that blue one once you adjust for options. And one P100DL with the right coloured seats and for only 5% more than I'm paying for a new gen LR. The heart says "2.4 SECONDS!" The head says "that's no bloody use to you at all, you idiot, think of the insurance and remember the extra range makes a difference to you in a way it may not to others..."
     
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  4. theoceanwaves

    theoceanwaves Banned

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    That's a cracking deal...I personally would jump on that! do you need the 10% extra range, the current air suspension is good anyway?
     
  5. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    It is an appealing deal isn't it?

    On the flip side, I'm already spending silly money and the little bit of extra range is significant to me because I do a 200 mile journey twice a week. The new gen car will probably still do that journey without pushing charge percentages too hard, even with some bad driving, winter conditions, and/or after 150k miles worth of unlucky battery degredation. Previous gen would probably have me stopping for a charge with 2 out of 3 of those things happening and increase my likelihood of degrading the battery along the way. So I think the 10% sort of clears a step for me, or at least is a little insurance policy. New gen loses the stops except on an unusual journey, when a stop's welcome anyway, so I figure it puts it right in the sweet spot for my use case.

    So I probably won't go for it. I imagine someone will snap it up in a minute anyway.

    New air suspension I find hard to judge. It can't be a bad thing (unless unreliable) anyway. It would have some value if it further smooths out the ride but I have no real sense as to whether it will. Long term I'll probably value my car being more comfy sofa than F1 car.

    But if a good value new gen P car with the ventilated seats but without Ludicrous, as was available for a week before I ordered, pops up, I might find that hard to resist....

    Anyway, the question I meant to ask before getting distracted airing my laundry on the internet was a more academic one. The market is being tested right now as valuing the change to new gen at £12k by my estimate. I'm erring towards accepting that valuation but there's inertia in it even if mathematically I'm taking a punt. If £12k is overvaluing it these should fly off the shelves. Interested to know what others think - is it worth that? When 2 otherwise identical cars simultaneously hit the 2nd hand market in 3 years time will one be worth £5k+ more than the other? I wonder...
     
  6. Edsh0t

    Edsh0t Member

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    Just cancelled my P100D S because I’m going to get a Model 3 Performance.
    It’s half way across the Atlantic at the moment, I’m sure someone will get a good deal on it!
     
  7. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    If you don't need it then ... you don't need it, of course :)

    But I think the question should be "how often will the extra range make a difference"

    For me I Supercharge about 2 days a month. if I had a 75 that would be 4 days a month, and for longer on the current 2 days. Some journeys that have convenient Superchargers I would have to detour (to closer Superchargers which are off-route)

    If I bought the new slightly-longer-range 100 my Supercharge days would drop to close to zero - only the drive-charge-drive-charge days would still exist, and short of driving to South of France or Skiing I just don't do those sorts of journeys, on an "every month" basis.

    £10K extra, assuming 50% depreciation, is £5K over, say, 3 years, which is £140 a month. I paid that initially to save the couple of hours a month difference that a 75 would require me to charge, and I would pay that again to reduce from current status quo to "almost no road charging".
     
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  8. gangzoom

    gangzoom Member

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    I love our X, its the best car we've ever owned, but if we're talking money that's a different mindset.

    No £70k+ car is going to 'fly off the self' in the UK.

    The S/X is fundamentally overpriced by about 20% here in the UK. We paid £71k for a optioned up 6 seater X in 2016, and now Tesla want that amount even for a 'discounted' S.

    The Merc ECQ is currently looking really attractive to us as a second EV rather than another Tesla, the fact is substantially cheaper than the S/X cannot be ignored, add in the Merc badge and its pretty obvious if Elon is serious about sorting out the 'demand' issue on the S/X Tesla need to cut prices back to 2016 level - sub £50k got you into a brand new S.

    I would be very very weary of paying full asking price for a S/X in the UK right now, there is either a massive price cut coming or a much larger refresh. Buying now could well put you in the worst possible position to take a massive depreciation hit.

    There are now other EVs available from established brands for CHEAPER, take a look at them before even thinking of an overpriced S/X!!
     
  9. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    I would be put off by almost zero reliable 3rd-party charging, and 100kW+ charging only just starting to roll out, and the rate of that doesn't instil confidence (e.g. compared to rollout-rate on the continent)

    For anyone that never goes out of range that won't be a concern.
     
  10. vitesse

    vitesse Member

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    I'd be interested to find out how efficient the Merc is compared to the X. Choice is, of course, very individual, but I include brand exclusivity very high in the list of reasons for going with Tesla. Mercs, Jags and Bimmers are ten-a-penny - maybe not electric models, but these brands are everywhere. This factor might not last for ever of course. Just yesterday evening some kids walking past our house asked me what the car was as they didn't recognise the Tesla 'T' :D

    I expect a completely new Model S can't be that far off, though the X is probably only half way through its design life. I bit more serious in my view is that the Model 3 and Y have, in my personal view, unacceptable dashboards. Maybe I'm old-fashioned but I'm surely not alone.
     
  11. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    It's been around a while but surely not many would say the S/X dash is old fashioned. Jag, Audi and Merc came 5-7 years later and still felt they had to keep it traditional. For me, I prefer the S/X dash to 3's too.

    I still find it disappointing that these established brands are all going SUV first. If we are serious about carbon/climate/energy issues then one of the easiest significant things to drop is the extra wind resistance of that extra height, which adds a big percentage to consumption, especially at speed. The irony of making this statement while buying a big heavy MS is not lost, but the point remains. They have their place but they seem to be a darling of the market and their disadvantages are often overlooked. Luxury does not have to mean tall. Wh/mile on that ECQ thing must be high.

    Competition has to hit M/S prices soonish but tesla has both range and road charging on its rivals too. No doubt they will pretty soon but they would need to sort at least one of those issues out for me to seriously consider them. I am surprised each time a luxury brand's first EV comes out and they don't go for 300 mile range.
     
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  12. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    That 20% is about the difference between last and next gen S/Xs. Lots more differences of course but again range advantage over rivals reduces their competitive pressure.
     
  13. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    Profit?

    If battery cost for small EcoBox is too dear then cannot produce them cost effectively ... so better to focus on higher-end of the market, until economy-of-scale allows affordable production of lower end

    VW ID seems to be targeting lower end ... but seems VW is all about Prototype Announcements so far ...

    Pound has fallen 10% against USD since 2016 too ... which might be part of the current/2016 price differential.
     
  14. vitesse

    vitesse Member

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    Model S dash is OK but there has been lots of feedback and improvements can be made. The big screen needs an update because panel tech has moved on. The Model 3 screen demonstrates this.

    Some of the interior design is style over function. Tesla needs to address the frequent observation that rivals deliver better finish and functional design.

    The Model S external styling is great but apart from the facelift nose job (I'm not so keen on) and new headlights (which look great) it's a design first shown to the public ten years ago. Change for change's sake is not necessarily good but time is rolling on
     
  15. gangzoom

    gangzoom Member

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    Once you get to the 200 mile range mark its ££££ that will drive consumers rather than range.

    Also not forget the badge, am sure most people in the street would rather have an Jag/Audi/Merc on their driveway instead of a MORE expensive Tesla.

    Add to that the much larger finance ability of the established manufactures to drive volume 'sales' of high price cars through attractive PCP/Lease deals.

    Tesla have to cut S/X prices, certainly in the UK, its simply a case of how long they can hold out for before market pressures force their hand.

    Oh and the £65k EQC has a higher WTLP rated range than the £75k SR Model X. So £10k cheaper, more range, and Mercedes badge....Why would anyone not buy the Merc??

    Tesla need to bring X starting prices back to below £65k if they want any chance of actually competing for UK sales with Mercedes.
     
  16. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    I wonder ... iPace has been plagued by issues ...

    The software advances of Tesla, during ownership, have been huge. If other Marques don't follow suit then Tesla may have appeal, for the reason that they do not become obsolete as other Marques have done, historically.

    I think WTLP has been an utterly useless figure :( Time was when MPG was a concern, so such comparison figures were handy, but EVs having a range of only 200 miles, and that only being relevant on days where the journey is 200+ miles, which is going to be motorway/similar, so range at 75 MPH is key. iPace / eTron has not troubled Tesla on that score (amazing considering they came 7 years after original Tesla design). Maybe Merc will do better ...

    Version One EV? As I said, it hasn't gone well for Jag ... doesn't mean that Merc will not be good, but does anyone know that yet?

    Would be a pity for Tesla to fail, having been the disruptor that got us from ICE to EV ... but ultimately so long as the Planet benefits from everyone moving from ICE to EV then Brand is not a concern (i.e. personal preference is fine)
     
  17. gangzoom

    gangzoom Member

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    Ultimately at the end of the day its your money to decide what to do. Am simply giving some feedback from a current owner view, having followed the EV market for the last 5 years and done 50k electric miles in various EVs.

    I love our X, I even 'bought' it twice after the original was written off and I was given a £75k cheque.

    BUT to ignore the changes in the EV market that is coming and come in the last 12 months would be silly.

    The S/X are great cars, am simply not convinced they are worth the kind of money Tesla is asking, especially given the competition.

    The way S/X demand has fallen last few quaters suggest am not the only one feeling this. Nothing wrong with buying a S/X now, but going into it on the understanding Tesla are under massive pressure from all fronts, sales are falling, and usually that means a price 'correction' is due.

    We are not talking about small amounts of cash here, if Tesla dropped prices by 20% tomorrow with no warning (which they have a track record of doing) just be sure you're still be 'happy' with the car you ordered - Look what Google has just done with the Pixel 3A.

    If I was in the market now I would sit tight and wait, or get a used sub £40k Model S. I don't think Tesla will fail, but they need to lower their current pricing.
     
  18. vitesse

    vitesse Member

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    #18 vitesse, May 17, 2019
    Last edited: May 17, 2019
    The problem is that I suspect the vast majority of potential buyers will not thnk about their purchase in the same way that many of us have. We've bought into Tesla, warts and all, because it's an exciting ground-breaker, disruptor, whatever, as well as the subjective notion that Teslas look great, are relatively very exclusive and there is a very tight-knit Tesla community.

    If you don't care about that, the brand-security of buying a Merc, Bimmer or Jag, among others, trumps Tesla, even if Teslas are more efficient and have a better supercharging infrastructure.

    I have relatives who are outspokenly derisive of Tesla build quality, for example. I haven't yet received a reaction to our recent purchase! One family has a Jag XF and a BMW 3-series and the other a Range Rover and a VW Golf. I somehow doubt they would buy any of the current Tesla offerings but would seriouslyt consider a rivals'.

    I also have a friend who is really into the green revolution but he wants a car that can work smartly with his solar panels, so I'll bet money that he'll buy a Leaf. He loves our Model S but says it's too expensive and I haven't heard him mention the Model 3.
     
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  19. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    jag iPace - beset with problems

    Audi eTron - dreadful range

    The Koreans ones look good on paper, but no chance of anyone getting their hands on one as the are making so few ... (battery constrained I think)

    I know nothing about the Merc (until you mentioned it). Can't find much about it, so presumably not yet readily available for people to drive and post YouTubes. Car & Driver reckons motorway speed range will be a fair bit less than 200 miles ... so not competitive on that front (and Car & Driver disparaging about its Infotainment too ... but that's probably just "either you like it, or you don't")

    of course for anyone who doesn't drive out of range any of these would be fine, on that count. For anyone that does then the dire state of 3rd party charging will be an issue, and actual motorway range will be King.

    I still think anyone buying a Version One EV from any well known, high quality, Marque is taking a risk.

    None of these Brands is serious about quantity either. Jag iPace is 20K units p.a., Merc says "Going to make 100 EVs every day this year" = so that's 35K units (dunno if all this model, or a mix). eTron is around the 20K mark too I think

    They are so conservative they may get overtaken by some other new startup.

    The more the merrier though, as far as I am concerned. The Planet needs EVs :)
     
  20. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    I share this view.

    And therefore this...

    ...is a frustration to me. A volume entry including well received longer range efficient EVs from these brands would be primarily a positive for world and market and they haven't really grabbed the opportunity so far. Only secondarily is it a threat to Tesla; performance to date suggests the others are quite slow to challenge on some of the key points and there are plenty of directions Tesla can adapt in to maintain competitive in different subsets. EG surely Tesla can adapt to make a Merc standard interior in Model S or its successor.

    The traditional motoring press seems to like the offerings from these traditional brands, generally, but (not unusually for a Tesla buyer I guess) I've never really read motoring press before researching this car. They judge things from a particular point of view, and I don't think it's all that forward-looking. They seem to prioritise quite differently to me. EG the rather nebulous concept of is it a "driver's car"? Don't get me wrong, I'd like a nice car, but on the motorway (and anywhere else within sensible speed limits) this kind of thing counts for not a lot, and anyway MS goes like stink; Autopilot on the other hand can have a real world impact on me. I-Pace is nice inside, but it's not amazing. It didn't match my preconception of what "Jag" means. I reckon they've had to work quite hard to keep the price down. Sure MS is a little behind it on materials but it's pretty nice inside too.
     
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