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Monetary value of the MS/X refresh

Discussion in 'The UK and Ireland' started by LukeT, May 14, 2019.

  1. vitesse

    vitesse Member

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    It's a chicken and egg situation, isn't it? Tesla isn't yet capable of producing very large numbers of vehicles so it has targeted the mid-premium market, which means it has to add a lot of value to every car it makes. All Teslas are now equipped with a lot of expensive tech. that is, arguably OTT but adds to the ticket price.

    We could only afford a used Model S thanks to a windfall. Ironically, I believe that running our Model S, including depreciation, will be very comparable to the 11 year old ICE we replaced.

    The Model 3 was fanfared as the first truly affordable Tesla, but it's still considerably more expensive than quite a few electric rivals.

    I would like to see a Tesla that is Ford Focus sized, without self-driving hardware, with a hatchback. It wouldn't have to feature an all-glass roof. Yes, retain TACC functionality, but full AP would not be necessary. Would it be possible to sell something like this for £30-£35,000?

    Does it actually makes sense to go down market?
     
  2. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    I've come to the conclusion, like you, that what I actually want has changed from "Boy Racer" style to "cruises nicely on motorway and goes like stink in a straight-line". I don't mind that MS wallows on country bends because I no longer need to be trying to get around the (blind) bends as fast as possible because as soon as there is a straight I'm a license-losing speed in the twinkling of an eye :) and I'm a lot better off no at max cornering speed on a blind bend in case ... I meet something coming the other way that needs my space too.

    I'm sure there were some early-adopters for whom that was important, they bought Tesla and will now switch to Jag/whatever. I read that on the Jag forums ... but the numbers are small (Jag are only making 20K p.a. iPaces worldwide). I think there are far more who are happy with Tesla interior ... the one thing Tesla could do is to produce the Vanilla Model at a Budget Price ... but of course they can't do that until they can get the costs down low enough so they don't die trying.
     
  3. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    Model 3 production is on target for 500,000 units p.a. I reckon that's a large number :)

    The problem I see with that is there would be no differentiation, so why would anyone buy Tesla (instead of e-Golf / whatever). Tesla positions itself as being different. It wants to get price down, and I expect that it will, but I doubt it will throw away the Tesla-Differentiating-Feature-Set. For me that is likely to include EAP too ... I'm not sure what safety stuff is only available in AP ... but I think its enough that people may decide that on a rainy day it may make the difference between Alive ... and not. I also think if it keeps the accident rate of the whole fleet down that's good for Tesla too - i.e. Marketing Stats.

    Might be that people will "stretch" to buy M3. Plenty of people did for MS / MX. I can afford it, but I've never owned a car in anything like that price bracket - never felt the need to throw that much money at a Depreciating Asset ... but strangely we are talking about replacing it with same-again rather than with an M3

    Its part of Tesla's mission statement. Different business model selling Expensive Model to Rich Blighters, and tooling up to sell 10x as many to Average Incomers ... or 100x as many to lower Income folk. Can be hard for a company to change-modes to achieve that.

    I reckon that: "Halve the price, sell to 20x as many people" applies :)
     
  4. vitesse

    vitesse Member

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    I thought Tesla was missing its sales targets with the Model 3, while S X sales were also on the slide?

    I'm sure the AP1 hardware is relatively cheap compared to the latest AP2 hardware that comes standard. Tesla could make a Model 3 Lite without all the extra cameras, glass roof and electric seats, use a less powerful central processor and so you'd have enough tech to match Model S pre-facelift functionality, without Autopilot enabled. TACC will still be a valuable mode for heavy traffic and routine motorway cruising. The fixation on full autonomous self-driving is a bit blinkered if you ask me.
     
  5. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    Had the M3 been a hatchback I'd probably have been early in the queue for one. However now I'm heading MS way I reckon I'm going to love it and soon put the cost into the past. I'm really only a new buyer because of new EV capital allowances treatment.

    My current car cost £12k 125,000 miles ago. While I guess most new MS/X buyers were already in the mould of spending £40k or much more on a new car, the fundamental shift it represents is much more than just buying a car. We can massively transform our personal emissions and move to a car that does something fundamentally extra (AP) so I regard this as an expensive one-off at a time of transition, for reasons outside of normal car buying ones. Kind of why I think the motoring press have missed the point a bit.
     
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  6. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    But ... if it provides Tesla with a complete fleet of RoboTaxi that will earn them a Mint :) Tesla will provide finance package for 3 years and then take the cars back for their self driving taxis ... of course FSD will be all Done and Dusted by then :rolleyes:
     
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  7. AidenL

    AidenL Member

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    I agree with you fully on that. I’ve had the big engines, teeth rattling suspensions and flat out cornering. Today, early 50s, comfort and safety means far more to me.

    I drove the S for the first time the other day - I actually like the interior. It could be better, and probably will be massively more minimal if the refresh happens.

    I agree fully also, at the same price and features, the mass market will always go for the ‘safe’ VW option.
    I started looking at the Model 3 myself, now the S is calling to me. The stretch happens at all levels!
     
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  8. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    I like it too. Wasn't sure, but there was no other 200+ mile range EV at the time ... and away-from-the-line ticked that box :) so I was a buyer.

    Having lived with it for a few years I like NOT having dirty rags and old sweet wrappers stuffed in the door pockets ...

    I'm also comfortable with the layout of controls on the centre screen. The fact that there are no buttons has meant that the layout of switches has been changed over time - graphic equaliser went from 3 sliders to 5 , for example, but also things like CHILL mode button added and so on ...

    No chance for me to muscle-memorise the position of all switches in a modern car anyway ... and then I jump into a different car on the drive and have overall confusion to deal with ... voice activation (that worked) for controls would suit me better, in that regard. (Cycling thought the menu screens and multiple pages of options in a VW Golf is a nightmare by comparison ...)
     
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  9. vitesse

    vitesse Member

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    I haven't spent much time inside posh German cars so my reference point isn't that good but I am also pleasantly impressed with the interior of our car.

    I was very nervous that the tan leather (no choice as we bought a CPO) would look like cheap vinyl, but it's fine. It's weathered well, too. I'd have originally preferred black. The leather is maymnot Connoly quality but perfectly acceptable. In fact the tan and black (piano black and black headliner) is a combination that works surprisingly well. My daughter doesn't agree that the tan goes with the red exterior, but I disagree :)

    I'm more relaxed about the interior now - it's quite American, I feel - nothing wrong with that and why not? It's an American car, after all.

    I am also more convinced this is a four door coupé rather than a 'sedan'.

    I'm also very happy with the handling - the ride is better than our old Mazda 6 Sport and just as nimble and there is very little roll or wallowing. I regret we didn't get the air suspension as the car is fully warrantied so the reliability worry would be non-existent, but we exceeded our budget a bit, so beggars can't be choosers!
     
  10. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Active Member

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    One less sprog to have to ferry about then ... :)
     
  11. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    This is a prospect I find quite appealing. Our Mondeo is an estate and it's been great but in hindsight the configuration of a hatch version would've brought very little disadvantage. Same length and width so bikes, skis, etc, the kind of thing you put the seats down for, would've mostly been fine. Dogs too. MS is similar in space there. Sedan/saloon is out though (dogs) hence M3 out.

    I applaud this compromise for aerodynamics and therefore efficiency. While the SUV concept does add volume it adds it in the least useful way. Sloping down to a small back end, tear drop style, is one of the biggest aero factors.
     
  12. AidenL

    AidenL Member

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    Red with tan leather - always works well on a Ferrari!

    Agree on the coupe shape - I always see the BMW 6 coupe and Panamera as similiar?
     
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  13. vitesse

    vitesse Member

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    The lack of a hatch killed the prospect of a M3 for us too. A long time ago we had a Seat Toledo - massive boot but tiny access; a PITA!
     
  14. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    Interesting how the sedan/saloon remained so popular in the USA while it nearly disappeared in favour of the hatch in Europe a long time ago. If Tesla was based anywhere else it's hard to imagine the M3 would've had a saloon boot.
     
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  15. vitesse

    vitesse Member

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    Agreed.

    American cars used to be big and the classic saloon shape meant you had a loads of access with the 'trunk' opening. It simply doesn't work for modern car shapes. Is Tesla going to do a station wagon (estate) M3 next?! LOL :)

    I was also put off by the minimalist dash but I think I could just about live with that.

    In the end we bought a 3 year old, 30Kmiles Tesla CPO 70D, with a new 4 years/50K (additional) miles warranty (as well as the unlimited miles/8 years - 5 years remaining - battery warranty), with some luxury features and a proper instrument display, no waiting and for about the same as a fairly lightly-specced M3, which you'd have to wait for. And no long term free supercharging.

    Maybe the Y will be in our future but, to be honest, we don't really want a SUV/crossover - especially after the S. I'm starting to save for the additional cost of another CPO - this time a S 100D - trade-in in three years time :D
     
  16. LukeT

    LukeT Member

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    Well, there are strips of wood on the inside, so sticking them on the outside too is the logical next step.
     
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  17. vitesse

    vitesse Member

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    Lots of detail changes but the basic Model S shape and interior is pretty much the same. Look at a 2012 Merc, BMW or even Ford and compare it with a brand new one today.

    In fact the limited changes over the years are good for Model S owners as it maintains values. Porsches from year to year for a very long time had very limited differences - they are some of the best cars for residual values.

    But if Tesla want to generate sales to get economy of scale, they need to appeal to a wider range of tastes and to generate interest from existing owners to trade up.
     
  18. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    #39 Brando, May 26, 2019
    Last edited: May 26, 2019
    Tesla sold more Model 3 in last 12 months than they sold Model S total 2012-2019.
    Production limited, not demand limited. Need to generate production, not sales, at this time.

    PS- isn't that true for most BEVs? See any sitting at dealers? Don't all have back logs? How long for eGolf or Bolt?

    Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard
     

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