I half jokingly asked this in January in a Faraday Future related thread, not too many think M3 will outsell Bolt, I was hopeful but not confident myself. Should we vote again now that Bolt is "ramping" to 1500/month. I'm voting yes.
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More M3 than Bolt in 2017? Yes or No
- Thread starter Waiting4M3
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I am going to be optimistic..
I anticipate at least six Model 3s delivered in 2017, seven if you take into consideration Elon's
I anticipate at least six Model 3s delivered in 2017, seven if you take into consideration Elon's
omgwtfbyobbq
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It Tesla can hit their production goals (start at ~1000/month in July/August and hit ~5,000/month by December), they could pass Chevy. It'll be close unless Tesla ramps 3 production faster than their projections or Bolt production falls flat.
It is very likely. Ramping to only 4k/week in November would yield over 25k which would likely be enough for the 'win'.
I think a more interesting question is how many months it will take the M3 to top the InsideEVs monthly US chart.
I expect Tesla to have 3 in the top five by the end of 2017. ;-)
I think a more interesting question is how many months it will take the M3 to top the InsideEVs monthly US chart.
I expect Tesla to have 3 in the top five by the end of 2017. ;-)
As I thought, Bolt won that Dec poll with 53.7% of vote for more Bolt in 2017. I'd give M3 a better than 50/50 chance of beating the Bolt in 2017 at this moment.
jelloslug
Active Member
You can see an M3 now. South Carolina had internet last time I was there, which was a long time ago.
You can buy a Bolt EV now if you are willing.
You should have Bolts in SC (not imported from California or other states) in 3 months, perhaps less.
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jelloslug
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How many Fremont and Gigafactory employees do you think ordered the model 3? I think Tesla will keep the model 3 "close to home" for months.
Since the #1 market for Teslas is California, and existing Tesla owners are supposed to get theirs first (after CTF/employee cars), it is possible California will consume all Model 3 production for 2017 and perhaps much of 2018.
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It's definitely possible. Out of the 400K reservation, say 1/2 is US, and 1/2 of that is CA, then you have 100K CA reservations. Excluding people who want AWD, lets say 1/2 of them buy RWD model, that's 50K in CA. If Tesla delivers 50K M3 in 2017 I think it would be on the optimistic side of most people's estimates.
Edit: but looking at the infrastructure build-out such ass Superchargers, it seems unlikely that Tesla will dump all these new M3 all in CA.
A lot depends on profitability of the Model 3. If the M3 is not profitable at release time, it is wise to slow down production until profitability can be maintained. Unlike GM, Tesla cannot fill the upholstery using $100 bills just to move inventory. If they sell 100,000 units at a loss, the consequences could be dramatic.
There should be at least 6 Bolts within 250 miles of you right now for sale. Go to Cars.com and type in your zip.
Elon made it clear in Q1 Q&A that decent/good profitability depends on getting the ramp finished to fully leverage the labor.
So delay unlikely given choice, though they will clearly continue looking for opportunities to eliminate unnecessary cost.
jelloslug
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JeffK
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In case that wasn't clear, I was trying to say three models in the top five.
I'll call them 3,X,S in that order, though not necessarily 1, 2, 3. ;-)
Current guess for others in the top five are also the Prime, and either Volt or Bolt.
Its starting to look like the Bolt has a shot at overtaking the Volt in the US before the end of the year.
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