More precise estimates?

[Agon]

I read somewhere that Tesla after the initial start of production phase actually made quite precise estimates of the ramp up of production of the S and X. Does anybody know og this is true? And should we therefore expect the new estimates to be quite accurate?

 

[dm33]

New estimates have not been accurate so far. Elon makes it sound like they're running into unexpected problems which stall or slow down production. They're planning higher volume production so it varies between very fast in most parts of the production to very slow when some part of the process runs into a problem. They haven't been able to get the entire process automated yet.

 

[Agon]

I know all those things. But does anybody know if the estimates actually became quite accurate by this time of the ramp up proces with the S and the X?

 

[PoitNarf]

I really don’t think you can directly compare the S or X ramps to what’s going on right now with the 3. They’re completely different animals.

 

[gregincal]

During the S ramp they didn't really give estimates at all until you were invited to configure.

 

[AviP]

When an estimate includes the words "Late..." or "Mid...", they are about as inaccurate as possible. This is the customer and investor facing estimate. Without a doubt, they have a lot of smart people working there that know exactly what the "accurate" estimate is. But that is not suitable for public consumption, namely the investors and customers. I wouldn't place any faith in the latest estimate. I didn't place any faith in the prior one either. Or the one before that. Right now I'm treating my deposit as a 3-year interest free loan to Tesla.

 

[sreams]

When an estimate includes the words "Late..." or "Mid...", they are about as inaccurate as possible. This is the customer and investor facing estimate. Without a doubt, they have a lot of smart people working there that know exactly what the "accurate" estimate is. But that is not suitable for public consumption, namely the investors and customers. I wouldn't place any faith in the latest estimate. I didn't place any faith in the prior one either. Or the one before that. Right now I'm treating my deposit as a 3-year interest free loan to Tesla.

To be fair, the "interest" is your place in line in front of 100s of thousands of other people. If I viewed my reservation deposit as an interest-free loan, I wouldn't have placed the reservation at all. Who loans money with no consideration in return?

 

[dm33]

To be fair, the "interest" is your place in line in front of 100s of thousands of other people. If I viewed my reservation deposit as an interest-free loan, I wouldn't have placed the reservation at all. Who loans money with no consideration in return?

Depends on what you're waiting for. If you're waiting for the SR model, those 100s of thousands of other people may get to cut in line in front of you if they are willing to dish out more $$ for any option Tesla comes up with between now and when the fabled 35k model is actually made.

Given that anyone who is willing to pay more gets to move in line, the line doesn't have much of a sequence. Tesla can skim those willing to pay top dollar forever. If they can't make more cars than there are people willing to pay more, they will never get to those day 1 line waiters who were waiting for the advertised $35k car.

 

[dm33]

Does anyone know what a dates a brand new reservation made today shows?

I haven't heard anywhere of a date later than 'early 2019' for the SR. Not clear that being in line has any benefit.

 

[DanL3]

I Made My Reservation on Jan 30, 2018. I also have early 2019 on the SR. but I really do not expect a car until 2020.

 

[sreams]

Depends on what you're waiting for. If you're waiting for the SR model, those 100s of thousands of other people may get to cut in line in front of you if they are willing to dish out more $$ for any option Tesla comes up with between now and when the fabled 35k model is actually made.

And you'd still be far ahead of a vast amount of other people waiting for the SR model. The point is, your reservation deposit gets you something in every scenario.

 

[sreams]

Does anyone know what a dates a brand new reservation made today shows?

I haven't heard anywhere of a date later than 'early 2019' for the SR. Not clear that being in line has any benefit.

Sure there is. If there are 100,000 people with reservations who intend to wait for the base model, and you are #1 in that line, you will get your car way before the last guy in line. Let's assume for a moment that Tesla is at a 5000/wk production rate by the time the base model is released. And then let's assume that half of the cars being produced are base models. It would take them 40 weeks (the better part of a year) to get through those 100,000 orders.

 

[dsvick]

Given that anyone who is willing to pay more gets to move in line, the line doesn't have much of a sequence.

No, because you'll still be in front of anyone that reserved after you that is buying the car optioned the same as you.

 

[Hans L]

Visited the Tesla store in San Diego over the weekend. They said if you placed a M3 reservation today, 22 months out is before you can expect it.

 

[UkrHog]

Visited the Tesla store in San Diego over the weekend. They said if you placed a M3 reservation today, 22 months out is before you can expect it.

as a non owner or an owner?