Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Launch Late 2018

[ecarfan]

Jonas? Why does anyone care what this pretentious d-bag thinks? I certainly don't.

In general Adam Jonas is quite positive about Tesla. He just thinks that based on Tesla's past performance in bringing new models to market that the Model 3 will not go into production when Elon has stated it will. But the situation is not as simple as Elon saying that Model 3 production will start on July 1, 2017 (which he has clearly said is his target). This well written article provides some valuable context Tesla Model 3 again predicted to be late as WSJ piles up on ‘Tesla/Elon Musk are always late’ narrative

Jonas has also been accused of hyping Tesla just before the company planned to raise more cash. See http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/29/opinion/joe-nocera-the-tesla-cheerleader.html

I don't know what goes in in Jonas's head. But he is just one opinion among many.

 

[Jayc]

Either way best to ignore - at least those of us here at TMC would know Tesla's progress better and I cannot see how another third-party information source would add any value to what we already know.

Then there is the whole question of "conflict of interest" which almost ALL of these so called expert analysts will have which simply means that their ability to do an honest job is affected and so whatever they predict has no value - whether prediction is positive or not. I just cannot understand why people take him so seriously. This particular analyst will have investments setup to benefit from a downturn in TSLA stock when he announces something negative about Tesla and the similarly he will benefit when he announces positive news. Just because it is not practically possible to trace back stock market transactions to those who purposefully mislead the market, don't ever believe they are clean.

Elon has clearly stated that they hope to begin production next year. He has also confirmed that next part of Model 3 reveal will happen spring of next year. Even between both these significant events, we will continue to get various bit of updates. Name one other CEO who keeps their fans and customers up-to-date to this level of detail? Try subscribing to Twitter feeds from CEOs of GM, VW, Ford, etc and experience for yourself how lonely, boring and useless those accounts are. Nuff said.

 

[22522]

Name one other CEO who keeps their fans and customers up-to-date to this level of detail?

Trump tweets.

 

[apacheguy]

That is a surprise. We all know that the X was late launching by more than 2 years or so (opinions vary but there is no denying it was very late). Adam Jonas seems to think that Tesla has not learned from that mistake. While the 3 is a completely new platform, the X was mostly new, shares well under half its parts with the S (if you count the battery pack as a single part) and contained major new technology for Tesla (Falcon Wings, powered front doors, powered 2nd row pedestal seats, Pano Windshield).

The 3 does not appear to contain any major new technology. Before you yell out "spaceship controls!" (maybe you already have) I will reiterate my position that, as per Elon's statements, no major new technology will be available on the 3 before it is available on the S/X. There is now way that Tesla is going to give the 3 some cool new driver interface without offering it on the S/X months before the 3 goes into production.

Elon knows that Tesla's reputation will take a big hit, as will his personal reputation, if the 3 is anywhere near as late as Adam Jonas has forecast. So I believe that Adam will turn out to be very, very, wrong. Of course I could be wrong...

JB is on record saying the M3 will contain all new technology.

Model 3 Will Have "Next Generation" Tesla Technology

 

[ecarfan]

JB is on record saying the M3 will contain all new technology.

Model 3 Will Have "Next Generation" Tesla Technology

That article states, quote:

(JB saying that the Model 3) will feature the “next generation” of Tesla technology.

He did not say the Model 3 will "contain all new technology" as you said in your post.

Not the same thing.

Note also that Elon has stated that new cutting edge features will first be implemented in the S/X before being available in the 3 and that may S/X features will never be available in the 3 or other lower prices Tesla models.

 

[SageBrush]

That article states, quote:

(JB saying that the Model 3) will feature the “next generation” of Tesla technology.

He did not say the Model 3 will "contain all new technology" as you said in your post.

Not the same thing.

Note also that Elon has stated that new cutting edge features will first be implemented in the S/X before being available in the 3 and that may S/X features will never be available in the 3 or other lower prices Tesla models.

Right.

This also implies that whatever driver interface is planned for the M3 will first show up in the S/X. Perhaps april/may when the 2nd reveal for the M3 is expected.

 

[Tes LA]

ERRONEOUS!!!!

This guy is just doing his job and he's entitled to his predictions however so am I and I.....I predict he's wrong.

Cheers

 

[tinm]

One way Jonas's prediction could turn out right, for other reasons than he's probably thinking, is that the considerable forces (read: oil & gas industry plus GM and its allies plus auto dealers and their allies plus Repulbican-controlled executive, legislative, and judicial branches of govt) arrayed against Tesla could somehow sabotage the work done by companies down the supply chain that are critical for Model 3 production. Elon himself has said countless times that it would only take a single late supplier to impact the Model 3 schedule. Well what if the evil forces arrayed against Tesla screw with two or three or ten suppliers? I would not put it past them (particularly the Koch henchmen) to pull something like this. A *lot* of people want very much for Tesla's Model 3 rollout to fail.

 

[VIKING26]

Well what if the evil forces arrayed against Tesla screw with two or three or ten suppliers? I would not put it past them (particularly the Koch henchmen) to pull something like this.

This would not surprise me at all. Look at the pipeline protest in North Dakota right now. Greed and power die hard.

 

[ecarfan]

This also implies that whatever driver interface is planned for the M3 will first show up in the S/X.

I am as certain as I can be that will be the case.

 

[3Victoria]

Agree. It may be revealed to be in the M3, but likely will be included in the S/X before the M3 arrives.

 

[tinm]

My only hope is that Tesla realizes this and is taking it into account in trrms of supplier and their own factory's redundancy. If a supplier doesn't make their dates, build it in-house even if it's upholstery or lights or other trim.

 

[dm28997]

Reviewing the conversion of SCTY to TSLA which has dramatically increased the number of shorted shares of TSLA. I would believe their interest is in bringing the stock price down. There are posters on the Tesla Forums who is talking trash about the car who probably work for the shorts. A long can become a short and vice versa in a second. Best to avoid reading any of it.
Not worried about oil and dealers as Musk is well aware of the game . The Utilities have much to gain from more EV's also along with Powerpacks. Also Trump seems more inclined to promote less regulation and more business breaks. This should help Tesla move faster. The energy section just sold a lot of PowerWalls to Sweden as well as PowerPaks to various countries. Stock is going up because the action is excellent and the news is best taken with a large chuck of rock salt.

 

[eye.surgeon]

Love the optimism here. Predicting Tesla will be late with the M3 is the analyst equivalent of predicting the sun will rise tomorrow.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Any and all...

 

[Sharkbait]

As an existing owner and M3 reservation holder, I find the prediction troubling like many here. But I suggested earlier in another thread that first deliveries might not occur until '18 and got some 'dislikes'. I wonder how long analysts last at Morgan Stanley when they make bogus predictions? Who knows? What concerns me today is the Supercharger Network Map here:

Supercharger | Tesla

Look at the existing network and then click on the 2016 tab to see what it's supposed to look like in about 37 days. Think they'll make it? Not even close IMO. So where's the infrastructure? So maybe 2017 will be the year of the Supercharger rather than the Model 3. After all, $TSLA will start making $$$$ from SC'ing next year, which will help promote more Superchargers and then, maybe, the cars will come in 2018. Maybe a good time to pony up for that inventory Model S. I'm really loving mine.

 

[S100D]

What concerns me today is the Supercharger Network Map here:

Supercharger | Tesla

Look at the existing network and then click on the 2016 tab to see what it's supposed to look like in about 37 days. Think they'll make it? Not even close IMO. So where's the infrastructure? So maybe 2017 will be the year of the Supercharger rather than the Model 3. After all, $TSLA will start making $$$$ from SC'ing next year, which will help promote more Superchargers and then, maybe, the cars will come in 2018. Maybe a good time to pony up for that inventory Model S. I'm really loving mine.

I agree, the 2015 Supercharger map was supposed to have SCs in Arkansas by the end of 2015. The 2016 SC map again says that Tesla will have SCs in Arkansas. Since we are 37 days before the end of the year, they will miss adding SCs in Arkansas again this year.

 

[TJ&TheBeast]

I agree, the 2015 Supercharger map was supposed to have SCs in Arkansas by the end of 2015. The 2016 SC map again says that Tesla will have SCs in Arkansas. Since we are 37 days before the end of the year, they will miss adding SCs in Arkansas again this year.

They have built SCs along the routes that people do take to drive around Arkansas rather than thru it...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

As an existing owner and M3 reservation holder, I find the prediction troubling like many here. But I suggested earlier in another thread that first deliveries might not occur until '18 and got some 'dislikes'. I wonder how long analysts last at Morgan Stanley when they make bogus predictions? Who knows? What concerns me today is the Supercharger Network Map here:

Supercharger | Tesla

Look at the existing network and then click on the 2016 tab to see what it's supposed to look like in about 37 days. Think they'll make it? Not even close IMO. So where's the infrastructure? So maybe 2017 will be the year of the Supercharger rather than the Model 3. After all, $TSLA will start making $$$$ from SC'ing next year, which will help promote more Superchargers and then, maybe, the cars will come in 2018. Maybe a good time to pony up for that inventory Model S. I'm really loving mine.

Of course you may be right, nobody knows for sure at this point.

I think what you suggest would prove disasterous for Tesla if they proceeded in that manner however. After the rollout of the Model X I think Tesla is going to do all it can to make sure the Model 3 is on time and on budget. Why would they immediately up the production date by 18 months after the first reveal if they weren't in a position to deliver?

Also, regarding Supercharging, I think Tesla has taken steps with the new credits system to start addressing abuses of the inteded purpose of the network. They have also been steadily adding locations and filling the map. Granted, it has not been at the rate proposed at the first reveal but I think there are many factors beyond their control with certain municipalities.

I think they are working on this problem to the best of their abilities but the primary focus at this point needs to be getting mass production up and running for the Model 3 by the end of next year as stated shortly after the first reveal.

Just my thoughts of course and I will be the first to admit that I am as full of BS as anyone!

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

By the way, does anyone know any specific issues Tesla might be running into in Arkansas in regard to Supercharger stations? I was wondering the same thing about North Dakota and West Virginia also.

Dan