Morgan Stanley Predicts Model 3 Launch Late 2018

[VIKING26]

An Electrek article describing Morgan Stanley analyist, Adam Jonas, predicting that (surprise, surprise) the M3 will be more than a year later than Tesla is stating. Also, a much slower ramp up of production.

"...forecast a Model 3 launch at the very end of 2018 (more than 1 year later than company target) with 60k units in 2019 and 130k units in 2020."

I sure hope that this does not end of being the case. I want my M3 asap. Maybe Elon can use this as bulletin board material to motivate the team.

Tesla Model 3 will not arrive until ‘very end’ of 2018, says once TSLA-cheerleader Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas

 

[ecarfan]

That is a surprise. We all know that the X was late launching by more than 2 years or so (opinions vary but there is no denying it was very late). Adam Jonas seems to think that Tesla has not learned from that mistake. While the 3 is a completely new platform, the X was mostly new, shares well under half its parts with the S (if you count the battery pack as a single part) and contained major new technology for Tesla (Falcon Wings, powered front doors, powered 2nd row pedestal seats, Pano Windshield).

The 3 does not appear to contain any major new technology. Before you yell out "spaceship controls!" (maybe you already have) I will reiterate my position that, as per Elon's statements, no major new technology will be available on the 3 before it is available on the S/X. There is now way that Tesla is going to give the 3 some cool new driver interface without offering it on the S/X months before the 3 goes into production.

Elon knows that Tesla's reputation will take a big hit, as will his personal reputation, if the 3 is anywhere near as late as Adam Jonas has forecast. So I believe that Adam will turn out to be very, very, wrong. Of course I could be wrong...

 

[MTN Ranger]

I think reality will be somewhere between Elon's promises and that article. I feel that the Model 3 will definitely roll out in 2018. Perhaps trickle in 2018Q1 and full production by 2018Q2-Q3. I have a friend that works in sales at an electronic parts supplier for the Model 3 and it will be interesting to hear how the process will proceed during the next year.

 

[BobbyKings]

I'm pretty sure Elon will deliver at least 11 Model 3s on (or before) December 31st 2017.

Whatever it takes.

 

[sitter_k]

I'm pretty sure Elon will deliver at least 11 Model 3s on (or before) December 31st 2017.

Whatever it takes.

thats my thinking too...see we made it!

 

[JeffK]

I'm pretty sure Elon will deliver at least 11 Model 3s on (or before) December 31st 2017.

Whatever it takes.

12... it'll be 12. You forgot my future Model 3.

 

[bradbrok]

Take analyst predictions with a grain of salt.

 

[JeffK]

My autocorrect automatically replaces "analysts" with "anal cysts".

I think it's because sometimes they're a pain in the ass...

 

[Electroman]

Take analyst predictions with a grain of salt.

.. and also Musk's timelines.

 

[WileyTheMan]

Always that possibility. That said, I think if there was trouble in paradise at this point, Musk would have alluded to a delay by now (better to break the bad news sooner rather than later). He knows what's at stake and how highly anticipated this product is.

Up to now, he's been all sunshine and roses about it.

 

[Weezer Fan]

Wiley-maybe not. Musk has been working the Solar City deal, so he would not have said anything about M3 delays before then. However, I also found this article about Morgan Stanley
Tesla’s SolarCity deal offers ‘zero value,’ Morgan Stanley says

BTW-It would be very difficult for me to wait another year for the M3. Not sure what my move would be, but, I will need a car. Actually, I could use the M3 next summer, but will make due for a while. Can't make due for a year.

 

[3Victoria]

TMC member analysis of the MS article is that it is designed for his clients. The feeling is that is is a very positive report, if you read between the lines of his very conservative assumptions. He gives a target price of $242, without including TE profits, SC worth, and late Model 3. None of those are likely: TE will ramp up over next year; SC has intrinsic value, and will be cash flow positive over the next year, and solar tiles will ramp up after 2016Q2; and the Model 3 looks to be on time, and most certainly will roll out much faster than his prediction.

Unless EM indicates otherwise, we can assume the Model 3 is on time.

 

[Weezer Fan]

I love Victoria. Flying in to Nanaimo and driving over to Tofino this weekend. I've noticed on the Supercharger map that there are none on the island. I'm surprised there aren't any around Victoria.

 

[3Victoria]

Victoria is lovely. I grew up here, left for school x 12 years, and back since 1989. No SCs, yet. There are chargers across the Island, though -- look at PlugShare .. and lots of destination chargers. Have fun in Tofino ... might get a storm.

 

[Foxhound199]

I'm pretty sure Elon will deliver at least 11 Model 3s on (or before) December 31st 2017.

Whatever it takes.

Tesla is known for throwing parties, right? They should throw a New Year's Eve 2017 party. No context, no explanation, just invites. Will they deliver Model 3s? Will they not? Tune in and find out!

 

[JeffK]

Tesla is known for throwing parties, right? They should throw a New Year's Eve 2017 party. No context, no explanation, just invites. Will they deliver Model 3s? Will they not? Tune in and find out!

I'll drive up to your party in my month old Model 3 thank you very much.
I have faith in Elon's drive to make this succeed.

 

[EV-lutioin]

I predict there will be more Model 3's produced in the first year of production than Bolts in their first year of production

 

[S'toon]

Stop Assuming Tesla's Model 3 Will Be Late -- The Motley Fool

 

[Beckler]

Jonas? Why does anyone care what this pretentious d-bag thinks? I certainly don't.

 

[electracity]

Jonas? Why does anyone care what this pretentious d-bag thinks? I certainly don't.

When he gives positive Tesla forecasts he is very popular.