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Most recent non-owner reservations. What delivery dates
- Thread starter dm33
- Start date
DanL3
Member
And any other options they can think of such as performance option to push in front of the base SR.
It also shows that there is little to no value in having a reservation. A day 2 non-owner reservation from two years ago shows early 2019 as the availability date for SR. Same as someone reserving a couple of weeks ago.
Chances are that the bulk of the reservations were done 1st day and first few days and very few since then. No reason to reserve now if they're predicting a year wait and they're not even making it yet. If they ever do start producing in high volume, they'll be able to run through the reservation list quickly so the wait would be at worst a few months and even that should shorten fairly quickly.
A year after they're producing in large volume, it should be like the Model S where there's no wait other than 4-6wk lead time. By then the Model Y will be out and they'll be trying to optimize the line for that one.
DanL3
Member
We are all Guessing on Telsa's reasons and logic. In fact my belief is that Tesla is having technical problems with both the SR and the AWD. The dates we see will all change as soon as Tesla gets better understanding of those problems. Those changes could be to move an option sooner or to move it later.
I expect that Tesla is not expending as much engineering and procurement resources on correcting the problems on lower cost options as they are on ramping production up on what they build today, or on the intro of the AWD. This allocation of resources is why they need predict so far out on the SR.
I expect that Tesla is not expending as much engineering and procurement resources on correcting the problems on lower cost options as they are on ramping production up on what they build today, or on the intro of the AWD. This allocation of resources is why they need predict so far out on the SR.
I don't trust those numbers. This is not simple pessimism. This is based on what we know today:
All employee orders for SR/AWD variants need to filled.
Ditto for investor SR/AWD orders.
Ditto for 2008-2017 owners with SR/AWD orders.
Many of these are also dual orders. Both must be filled.
And as we know now, all 2018 Tesla S/X buyers orders have to also be filled first as well.
Now the biggie:
And 1/2 the legacy and 2018 S/X market is export, these also have to be filled.
So there is perhaps as many as 50,000 unfilled Legacy orders, and an unknown number 2018 S/X orders to filled prior to the start of the non-owner line waiters. Current production is 500 cars a week. If it were higher, it is very likely something would have appeared in a press release.
And I don't need to mention non-owners have received 2 bumps, with the second bump not being realistic. ALL the SR orders will be filled Late 2018 Early 2019 for all the non-owners? Really?
All employee orders for SR/AWD variants need to filled.
Ditto for investor SR/AWD orders.
Ditto for 2008-2017 owners with SR/AWD orders.
Many of these are also dual orders. Both must be filled.
And as we know now, all 2018 Tesla S/X buyers orders have to also be filled first as well.
Now the biggie:
And 1/2 the legacy and 2018 S/X market is export, these also have to be filled.
So there is perhaps as many as 50,000 unfilled Legacy orders, and an unknown number 2018 S/X orders to filled prior to the start of the non-owner line waiters. Current production is 500 cars a week. If it were higher, it is very likely something would have appeared in a press release.
And I don't need to mention non-owners have received 2 bumps, with the second bump not being realistic. ALL the SR orders will be filled Late 2018 Early 2019 for all the non-owners? Really?
Your dates are very interesting compared to mine. Probably earlier than mine due to California. I'm in North Carolina.
I reserved 4/7/2016, 2 days before you. My dates show
First production - July-Sept 2018. One month later than your range.
Standard battery - Early 2019
Dual Model AWD - Late 2018
None of that is correct. They can't give cars to people they aren't making.
And out of country owners aren't getting cars before most US reservations.
You know how I know this. Tesla is telling us this, and has told us this for 2 years, verbally, and through estimates.
Also, Tesla would release higher production via press release? No. They never have outside earnings releases, and quarterly numbers.
We will see.
The good news is, if you are waiting for an AWD variant, you'll see one sooner than you expect.
DEPOSIT DATE (May 10' 2016)
After 2nd Delay (Revised Delivery Estimate)
***FIRST PRODUCTION- (Jul-Sep 2018)
***STANDARD BATTERY- (Early 2019)
***DUAL MOTOR & ALL WHEEL DRIVE- (Late 2018)
NOTE- Initial First Production (Mar to May 2018)
Which could be a set-up to cancel "SR" if they wanted. "Demand for SR was so low, 99% of customers ordered the LR..."
They cancelled the Original "40" Model S due to "lack of demand".
Tesla Kills The Entry-Level, 40 kWh Model S Citing Poor Demand
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Based on the above: If you reserve today (put your $1000 deposit down) and you will take LR + PUP you will get your car before some one who camped out on March 31st 2016 who wants a short range car.
Exactly.
And if you were a non-owner and reserved today, you would get the same "early 2019" estimate for the short range car as someone who made a reservation on the second day, back in April 2016.
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