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MS ownership in 6-7 years time

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Sunlight, Sep 18, 2014.

  1. Sunlight

    Sunlight Member

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    Although not yet a Tesla owner, I am a classic forum stalker so follow certain threads with great interest.

    One of the on-going debates revolves around the 'cost of ownership' and 'persistent reliability issues' - once the warranty is over.

    Tesla have moved to address the growing concerns about the drivetrain reliability and offered an 8 year unlimited warranty to match the battery pack (as I understand it). Tesla are also fantastically pro-active in dealing with issues on cars to the extent that very few have actually been inconvenienced or incurred costs. There is also the debate about the warranty and battery degradation - as opposed to failure.

    So I was wondering what will happen in the future when lots of Teslas (and the sort I might buy second hand) run out of warranty and start being sold on.

    I would like to think that the initial problems will have been solved by then but it would be interesting to guess how much on-going 'repairs' would cost - door handles; charging stuff; soft and hardware; and so on.

    The battery may have been replaced by then so will start afresh but could be down to 70% capacity. How comfortable would it be to buy a car with a battery getting 'old'? Is it likely to suddenly die? And what would that cost? How do you value a car with a 'dodgy' battery - especially if the replacement cost is still high (as high as the value of the car?!)

    Maybe older cars will be sold with reduced range and buyers will accept the limitation - even 60% capacity would still be way more than new Leafs and i3s etc. I could live with a 'cheap' Tesla with only 150mile range as long as the battery would still last for years with on-going degradation.

    Of course, things may start to change so quickly over the next few years that the scenario may be completely different - new packs for a MS S85 for less than $5k.......

    Thoughts?
     
  2. Perfect_Flaw

    Perfect_Flaw Banned

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    You are right, these cars will not age like an ICE car because of their proprietary computer systems and battery packs.

    These cars are better off as leased vehicles or to be purchased and driven until they need to be junked, due to the pricey battery packs, technology that wont be able to be retrofitted down the road, and expensive drive units that will be so expensive after warranty it will be cheaper to just buy a new car.

    Basically the Tesla is like a TV. When it is too old and broken you just toss it in the trash and buy a new TV. Before you could fix a TV cheaper than new, when it depreciates down to $25-30K and needs a new drive unit + battery it will exceed the cost of the actual car.

    Tesla claims it needs $600 a year in maintenance plans, yet a BMW comes with 4 years free. For $2250 you can extend that warranty to 8 years, 100K miles. To get a full 8 year service plan and warranty you need to pay $8,000 to Tesla.

    I love the car but to me, purchasing it is stupid.
     
  3. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Active Member

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    What's your VIN number?
     
  4. LucM

    LucM Member

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    Wow....BMW fooled you. Do you really think that the BMW comes with 4 years of "free" maintenance? Don't you think that is in the price of the car? I guess marketing does work! Oh, and what is included in that maintenance? Couple of oil changes, checking liquid levels and maybe tire rotations?
     
  5. Perfect_Flaw

    Perfect_Flaw Banned

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    Huh? My 750Li was $88,000 and in the past 4 years they have replaced my brakes 3 times, transmission, oil, and all necessary services and provided a loaner car to me each time.

    Tesla rotates your tires for $600 a year and checks things.. most of the times, not needing anything other than tire rotation.

    For $2250 they are going to do the same thing for another 4 years.

    My Tesla Model S is a great car but their claim of not needing to be serviced like an ICE is a joke because maintenance has and will be cheaper with my 7 than with my MS.
     
  6. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    #6 FredTMC, Sep 18, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2014
    Ummm. Tesla model S price point is already on par with its competitors in its class on initial purchase price. Then, when you consider total cost of ownership (vs. fuel and maintenance) it's cheaper. Finally, the longevity of the drive train is hundreds of thousand of miles.

    Cost of a remanufactured drive train in 8 years is cheaper than a ICE engine/drive train. It's vastly simpler. Tons less moving parts.

    Cost of a battery in 8 years will also be very low. You can buy a new battery for your model S today when you buy your car for $10k from tesla. Owners will also be able to get remanufactured and/or used packs in the future. Battery costs are dropping at an historical Avg of 8% per year and the GF in Nevada will only drop the cost of batteries further. Elon has said the factory will result in a 30% drop.

    Oh, and as battery cell technology changes is CAN and WILL be retrofitted into Model S. As example, tesla is about to do this with the roadster.

    Tesla doesn't require customers to purchase the annual maintenance plan. Throw out that $600/yr.
    Tesla warrentees the car battery and drive train for 8 years and Unlimited miles (recent press release). Throw out that extended warrantee cost. You don't need it for the drive train.
     
  7. Perfect_Flaw

    Perfect_Flaw Banned

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    55971, delivered yesterday
     
  8. glhs272

    glhs272 Unnamed plug faced villian

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    #8 glhs272, Sep 18, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2014
    Couldn't disagree more, I look forward to buying a used Model S in a couple years to replace the ICE vehicles still in my fleet. My experience with my purchase of a new model S gives me a lot more perspective and comfort in buying a used and out of warranty model S. It's just a little too new right now.

    Your assuming a lot of things such as drive units and batteries not lasting more than their warranties. Initial manufacturing problems aside, they will likely hold up very well long term (200K miles). I think your misconstruing Tesla's propensity to replace whole units (drive units & batteries) for simple or fixable failures for the customer's convenience with being unable to do so. For drive units and batteries that do fail, my prediction is drive units will be easily and economically replaceable via core exchange and same goes for the batteries themselves. Battery packs on the Model S are clearly replaceable/swappable. New cell chemistries/technologies will very likely make their way into the existing model S fleet. At some point there will be money to be made refurbishing battery packs and drive units. Even if Tesla doesn't do this themselves aftermarket companies will get in the game. The more Model S produced, the more lucrative the market. Its just a really early time for Tesla and electric cars. In time repairs and maintenance will be as easy as any other car.

    I think the $600 annual/12,000 mile service is unnecessary. I drive 30K+ miles per year and I struggle to find a need to take the car into the SC. The car is actually a lot less complicated than I feared. Just need a lift in my garage to work on it (battery and drive unit). Battery failures due to bad contactors or blown pyro fuses should a straight forward fix. A few bad cells in a module that is taking the rest of the pack down could be fixed via a module swap instead the whole pack. Again, these things will take time and there just aren't enough of the cars on the road yet.
     
  9. Perfect_Flaw

    Perfect_Flaw Banned

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    Polls have shown 75% of MS owners have had 1 or more (some even with 6!) drive units replaced during ownership of their Tesla. I am onboard because of the new warranty only.

    Drive units are estimated to cost $15,000 to replace post-warranty, where is your info about it being cheaper than a $6500 engine replacement for my 750Li ?

    Battery packs are also estimated at $12-15K to replace. Source of your info again? $12-15K for a battery pack would be many years of gas in my BMW.

    I love the Model S, don't get me wrong- but it seems Tesla has people fooled with the gas savings argument. After warranty, the Model S is a gigantic financial risk to own and the depreciated amount will reflect that.
     
  10. LucM

    LucM Member

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    Three brake jobs in four years? You either drive a ton or since the weight of the 7 is so high the brakes must really be stressed. With regen braking, you won't have to worry about that with the S. I bet you will need zero brake jobs in four years!
     
  11. Perfect_Flaw

    Perfect_Flaw Banned

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    Don't care because they replace for free.

    They only replaced them because of a squeak, pads were ok - but I didn't like how they sounded.
     
  12. LucM

    LucM Member

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    Squeaky brakes don't seem like a maintenance item to me. You must of found one of the few ICE dealers that go above and beyond. Congrats. Anyway, I hope the Tesla lives up to your expecations (somehow I doubt it but I hope I am wrong). Mine is coming next week and I am rather excited.
     
  13. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    My sources:

    Drive unit replacement issues was fully addressed on last earnings call. Initial quality problem. Not persistent problem.

    As as I said below you can buy a replacement battery today with your models purchase for $10k. Ask your DS.
     
  14. Perfect_Flaw

    Perfect_Flaw Banned

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    Yes it is covered under warranty with BMW.

    It will cost me more to maintain the Tesla than the BMW, but gas savings should offset that a little.

    I am happy with the Model S except a rattle happening in the dash and my center dash screen needing 2 reboots in 1 total day of owning it (frozen in Nav screen). Not happy about that, but I'm sure it will be fixed and this car will be fine. I do miss my massaging drivers seat I have in my BMW though, along with other things (motorized shades, night vision, etc)
     
  15. Incredulocious

    Incredulocious '11 LEAF –> '13 RAV4 EV

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    Yeah, I still don't understand why the maintenance plan is so expensive with Tesla. That is one of the great advantages (and talking points) for other EV's (like the LEAF or even the RAV4 with Tesla's drivetrain/battery): inexpensive and very minimal maintenance. That $600/year is more than even many non-EV's and yet some Tesla supporters will strongly defend that pricing.
     
  16. glhs272

    glhs272 Unnamed plug faced villian

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    #16 glhs272, Sep 18, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2014
    Repair parts from Tesla right now are overpriced, certainly. Once aftermarket companies get in the game these prices will come down considerably. There is nothing inside the drive unit that is magic or un-reproducible. It's just that your paying for OEM Tesla right now. That will change.

    I suspect a lot of drive units will get replaced on early model S cars (2012 - 2013 years) even for simple little noise issues, just to keep customers happy. Tesla replaced my drive unit at 21,000 miles. I didn't ask them to, but it was making just a slightest noise at low throttle. They did this during my one and only $600 annual. And considering the amount of effort they put into the car I consider I got my money's worth out that experience. But because my car has since been operating flawlessly I just don't see the need for these 12,000 mile service intervals. There is just nothing to do on the car. I think they should bump this up to 30,000 miles between service and that's just to be proactive (replace 12volt battery, check coolant and drive unit lubricant levels).
     
  17. breser

    breser AutoPilot Nostradamus

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    According to Elon most of those situations were incorrectly identifying the drive unit as a problem for something else. By the time cars are coming off warranty they'll have a lot of ideas of how to solve specific problems. If in doubt they'll probably try the cheapest solutions first (which is exactly what happens now with ICE vehicles).

    Tesla sells a battery replacement agreement for $12k if I remember correctly. That gives you a new battery in 8 years (this isn't a warranty, it's a pre-purchase). The cost of the battery replacement now is higher than that (but I don't think anyone knows exactly because Tesla hasn't given an actual price to anyone). I view that battery replacement agreement as a short on Tesla's ability to reduce the cost of the battery replacement (from the standpoint of the purchaser). From Tesla's standpoint they're betting on doing better than that price.

    The same arguments were made about Hybrid cars when they came out. That in a few years they'd need expensive battery replacements. Turns out enterprising businesses have come along and are selling reconditioned batteries for far less. Something that Tesla could and should do themselves. The battery swap demonstration suggests that they're thinking of doing pretty much exactly this and they can do it as a service more akin to filling the gas tank than taking the car to a mechanic (something that lowers the cost since labor is often the most expensive bit of servicing any car).

    I only consider the gas savings as a way to offset the added cost of the car. I probably would have bought a Lexus GS 450h if I wasn't buying the Model S, which I figure is about $12k less than the Model S after accounting for tax benefits. Those gas savings are going to offset that added initial cost. I'm hoping that the maintenance costs will be less. I'll be more than happy if they're roughly the same and I'll be ecstatic if they're less. Given that the Lexus is a hybrid and also has a battery (albeit a smaller one) and a gasoline engine with all the maintenance issues those come with. I suspect I'll do better on maintenance with the Tesla.

    The truth is if anyone could guarantee lower Total Cost of Ownership for the Model S they'd be selling even faster. I'm willing to take the risk.
     
  18. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Active Member

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    So you admit to being stupid?

    Are you referring to online polls here at TMC where the results are heavily skewed towards owners with problems because most people come here to seek solutions to problems? Quote me a proper poll and then I might take you seriously. Quoting informal TMC polls as a basis for concern about the drive unit is only something a troll would do.

    Please point to a bonafide source for that drive unit price of $15,000, and not just here-say. I have an email from Jerome Guillen that states the opposite of what you said above. I'll take Jerome's word, thank you very much.

    My goodness, it surely was not the smartest move to buy a Model S if you feel that you'll need to replace the battery during your ownership term. I doubt any of us feel this way or are in any way concerned. And by the way, the cost of a new Model S 85 kWh battery is not $12k-$15k. It's actually over $45k. So boy, did you make a huge mistake...

    With all due respect, you seem to have been fooled by more than just gas savings. When are you selling your fictitious car?

    - - - Updated - - -

    No, Tesla does not.
     
  19. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Perhaps he or she leased.
     
  20. breser

    breser AutoPilot Nostradamus

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    Tesla's blog disagrees with you:

     

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