Munro Teardown Shows Model 3 Profitable With 30%+ Margins

[ℬête Noire]

Are these things important in a car, and if so would you mention some semi-quant benefits ?

They are if you're building your car like a sci-fi spaceship. Autopilot and FSB are some next level stuff, they need a lot of processing power (probably eventually more than even the current stuff Tesla ships). Eventually you're going to become a radio station if you don't get a handle on it.

 

[Malbrough]

After checking out a Model 3 last weekend, I feel it'll easily get cheaper to produce rather quickly. Why? Because there's just not much there. It's so damn simple. Much simpler than any car I've ever sat in. Sure there are alot of electronics in there, but that's what you want because electronics most readily follow economies of scale. I mean, it's mostly robots turning sand into PCBs, compared to ICE workers turning iron into drivetrains.

I'm also seeing more common folk making YouTube videos on the Model 3, spreading the word rather quickly. I'm talking 30-ish year old working class with friends who had no idea this stuff existed. And their friends are walking away from test rides grinning from ear to ear saying " I gotta get one of these!"

I have never been more sure that we are on the verge of Model 3 orders going exponential, not due to tree-hugging, but due to it being fun, fast, and affordable high-tech-on-wheels.

 

[Electroman]

not due to tree-hugging, but due to it being fun, fast, and affordable high-tech-on-wheels.

That is exactly what Musk wanted..

 

[Singuy]

Update from Munro. 36% profit margin for the 48k version and 18% profit margin on the 35k version. Labor is included in both calculations.

 

[mongo]

Update from Munro. 36% profit margin for the 48k version and 18% profit margin on the 35k version. Labor is included in both calculations.

Given EAP is 12.5% on a 35k+5k price, that must be before the option...

 

[Mobius484]

Wow. This is going to be interesting! It’s happenning!

 

[ℬête Noire]

Update from Munro. 36% profit margin for the 48k version and 18% profit margin on the 35k version. Labor is included in both calculations.

Before software. That snuffling sound you hear are the shorts wrapped up in their blankies, huddling in the corner.

EDIT: Wait, he said "when they hit 5K/week"?

 

[eye.surgeon]

It's great Tesla can make money on these, but as a potential owner keep in mind this same expert compared the build quality to a 1990s Kia.

 

[gregd]

He's also talking about EVs powered from coal being dirtier than ICEs. Perhaps (probably) true in China, but I believe I read that in the USA an EV is cleaner than an ICE now that the coal (and other) power plants have been improved. That needs to be clarified!

 

[ℬête Noire]

He's also talking about EVs powered from coal being dirtier than ICEs. Perhaps (probably) true in China, but I believe I read that in the USA an EV is cleaner than an ICE now that the coal (and other) power plants have been improved. That needs to be clarified!

I didn't see that part (is that in the video Singuy link above? I didn't bother watch much of that). Do you mean the talking-head goober said that or Sandy Munro said that?

Because yes, that's 100% ICE talking point BS usually referred to as the "long tailpipe". It was NEVER true in the US, there were only the [relatively small] worst regions in the US at about equal footing at one point and that was years ago. Since then natural gas killing off coal, and renewables coming on line, and EVs themselves becoming much more efficient means that isn't even the case. The extensively researched historical numbers on this are around but for current numbers but if you're just interested in the current state of the matter there is this tool:

How Clean is Your Electric Vehicle?

It allows you to drill down in detail to estimate by ZIPCODE, based on typical local power grid consumption, and your vehicle model.

 

[ℬête Noire]

It's great Tesla can make money on these, but as a potential owner keep in mind this same expert compared the build quality to a 1990s Kia.

For the 2017-built units he likely had (although he had refused to give the VIN of them, the timing likely puts his vehicles somewhere in that range). I would not be surprised by that, given what he described finding (the front window trim had been "repaired" by a bit of scrap material glued onto it, that's total bush league).

 

[gregd]

I didn't see that part (is that in the video Singuy link above? I didn't bother watch much of that). Do you mean the talking-head goober said that or Sandy Munro said that?

Sorry, I should have given the reference. It was the video in Singuy's post, at about the 47:17 minute mark.

Just frustrating, the mis-information being spread.

 

[SageBrush]

It was NEVER true in the US, there were only the [relatively small] worst regions in the US at about equal footing at one point and that was years ago.

This is not correct. As one example the average Colorado grid today for a LEAF equivalent EV is equal to an ICE that averages 38 mpg. The confusion in the media stems from not understanding which EV and which ICE are the basis for comparison.

The last time I bought an ICE that averaged less than 38 mpg was in 1996 and my most three recent ICE purchases averaged 45, 52 and 54 mpg. My purchases are far from the American average (as is the Tesla,) but the devil is in the details and there is no doubt that in coal rich grids, some ICE models are less CO2 polluting and obviously MUCH less NOx and SOx polluting.

 

[ℬête Noire]

This is not correct. As one example the average Colorado grid today for a LEAF equivalent EV is equal to an ICE that averages 38 mpg. The confusion in the media stems from not understanding which EV and which ICE are the basis for comparison.

The last time I bought an ICE that averaged less than 38 mpg was in 1996 and my most three recent ICE purchases averaged 45, 52 and 54 mpg. My purchases are far from the American average (as is the Tesla,) but the devil is in the details and there is no doubt that in coal rich grids, some ICE models are less CO2 polluting and obviously MUCH less NOx and SOx polluting.

Where in CO?

 

[SageBrush]

Where in CO?

Statewide average, as used by the UCS. IIRC they get the data from the EIA.
And by the way, Colorado is not the dirtiest grid.

I'm really just trying to point out that the question of whether EVs are cleaner on any grid has been muddled by advocacy. "Average ICE" to "average EV" says yes, but that is a BS comparison for many reasons, chief amongst them that people do not buy cars that way.

I can tell you this for certain: I drive EV today because I have PV in my yard. If I didn't I would have kept my Prius even though the Tesla is twice the car and I am not constrained by price. It would have been for enviro considerations alone.

 

[Swampgator]

You know this whole clean thing gets me. A Tesla is 90% efficient at converting energy to forward movement. ICE cars get about 25%. That alone should be enough. I don't really give a crap about CO2 although I know a lot of Tesla owners do. They just don't critically examine the actual evidence.
Still....there is a whole lot more coming out of those exhaust pipes other than CO2.
Do you want to sit in your Tesla while it's running with the garage door down, or a BMW 340i?
Try it out for about 4 hours and let me know your results......

 

[ℬête Noire]

Statewide average, as used by the UCS. IIRC they get the data from the EIA.

And by the way, Colorado is not the dirtiest grid.

No, it isn't the dirtiest (that might be WY these days? used to be down GA way at one point but that's turned around). Not clear to me how they are getting that number, though. You have a link to where they're doing these numbers? Because that's wildly out of line with the link I provide above, which has the LEAF (at least the new one) over 50mpg equivalent in CO (EV fleet overall averaged at 49mpg).

P.S. As for what an ICE typically is, your vehicle history is probably not a good measure to go by.

 

[Dr. J]

Still....there is a whole lot more coming out of those exhaust pipes other than CO2.
Do you want to sit in your Tesla while it's running with the garage door down, or a BMW 340i?
Try it out for about 4 hours and let me know your results......

That would be CO. And I could get the same deadly result from doing that with my 2006 Toyota Prius. So I vote for the Tesla for this experiment!

 

[ℬête Noire]

I can tell you this for certain: I drive EV today because I have PV in my yard. If I didn't I would have kept my Prius even though the Tesla is twice the car and I am not constrained by price. It would have been for enviro considerations alone.

The thing about this (besides a Tesla LR coming in at more like 60mpg in CO) is that longer term the grid is currently improving way faster than the lifecycle of vehicles. To you specifically, it is looking like CO is going to be ground zero for rapid change in the US over the next 10 years.

TX is somewhat midstride of this, now. It's improvement over the last 4 years or so has been in the order of 30%, IIRC, and it's not stopping. My Bolt, if wasn't running PV on my roof and was instead using off the grid, is coming in above 80MPG equivalent. The Model 3 D will be about 85 and the LR would be within spitting distance of 90.

It actually gets even better if you consider I recharge very early in the morning (to avoid charger efficiency losses due to heat), that's running a very high wind %. So even though I'm not actually directly charging with my PV, I'm putting solar on the grid in the day and taking wind off at night.

 

[Uptownman]

Before software. That snuffling sound you hear are the shorts wrapped up in their blankies, huddling in the corner.

EDIT: Wait, he said "when they hit 5K/week"?

So everyone understands those are estimated "gross" margins. Lots of costs incurred after that point. Hence no 35k car for quite sometime.