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Musk’s burnout...

dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,879
10,023
Knoxville, Tennessee
what question was BS? The ones reported seem like legit questions to me.

The problem was the questions he kiboshed were answered in part by the quarterly statement they already received earlier that day, and partly answered by prior Q&A on the call just minutes before. It wasn't a fresh question, it was a rehash of what the guy 2 or 3 before him asked.

If no one had asked them prior to that, if he wasn't the 3rd variation on the same question out of 6 people, it wouldn't be an issue.
 
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dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,879
10,023
Knoxville, Tennessee
Much like the choice I made to invest in a young company, I choose to watch objectively and chalk this one up to Elon being irritated.
Ideally he could have at least kept the peace with his team mates by not cutting them off. He was mistaken there.
We are watching Tesla very closely. Who listens to quarterly investor calls of other auto makers? Are they even open to the public to hear?
Making sausage isn’t fun to watch...

quarterly calls can be quite open, if you want to see open check out Tmobiles last conference call. They even let you see the CEO and other executives

Ford's most recent one was Apr 25th. http://s22.q4cdn.com/857684434/file...ord-Motor-Co.(F-US)-Q1-2018-Earnings-Call.pdf

Details of Ford Motor Company’s
April 2018 U.S. Sales Conference Call
DEARBORN, Mich., April 24 – Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) will release its April
2018 U.S. sales results at approximately 9:15 a.m. EDT Tuesday, May1, 2018. At 10:00 a.m.EDT, Erich Merkle, Ford U.S. sales analyst, will host a conference call for the investment community and news media to discuss the results and related market trends. He will be joined by Mark LaNeve, Ford vice president, U.S. Marketing, Salesand Service, and Bryan Bezold, Ford senior Americas economist.

Conference Call Access Information
Toll Free: 1-877-870-8664
International: 1-970-297-2423
Password: “Ford Monthly Sales Call”
The conference call also will be webcast live, on a listen-only basis, at
www.shareholder.ford.com
.
Replays – Available after 12:45 p.m. EDT the day of the event through May 7, 2018
Toll Free: 1-855-859-2056 or 1-800-585-8367 International: 1-404-537-3406
Passcode:9868418
The replay also will be available on www.shareholder.ford.com
.

Surely more boring than Elon's outburst but take a listen and see what you think.
 
Last edited:

2012MS85

Member
Apr 26, 2017
401
455
Blue Grass, IA
If you are judging the worth of Tesla based off of the last two weeks of fluff that has occurred, you should probably stick to an index fund for your investments.
I judge Tesla on the totality of my years of extensive research that began after my first Roadster test drive, which was the day in 2011 that I fell in love with what Tesla has created. I also enjoy high risk investments, not index funds, as I want to roll the dice in exchange for high returns. That said, as much as Tesla fans loved Elon giving Wall Street the finger yesterday, it wasn't beneficial for long-term investors and owners of Tesla...because Elon MAY need to raise equity later this year IF his optimistic plans of finally becoming profitable don't pan out. Tesla's debt is very expensive and trading at a discount. If you've studied the numbers of Tesla as I have, there's a very real possibility that the high cash burn will force the need for more capital to be raised in the next 6-12 months, even though Elon doesn't WANT to go there. That's the job of a CFO - to warn the CEO well in advance of all scenarios. But if Elon feels invincible because of his ego (that most every billionaire has), perhaps he's ignoring the warning signs. But I have noticed key CUSTOMER warning signs, like trying to buy a $100k solar roof that Tesla promoted, but couldn't yet sell. So I paid $50k to their competition. I tried to buy the PW1 since day 1, but it was not for sale in the midwest and was replaced by PW2. I tried to buy a couple of those for 18 months; nope! I sold my S in January with plans for the 3; then saw first-hand the poor quality rolling off the line due to lacking quality control. When demand for a product is busting at the seams, but supply is this constrained...one should listen extra close to things like an earnings call. 25% margins on a $35k car were predicated on massive advancements in the machine building the machine (at a rate of 10,000 per week). Now CapEx is being reduced (at GF1, which is less than one-fourth complete; and the high automation is being replaced at Fremont with yet-to-be-hired third shift workers...raising OpEx). The only result of all this is much lower margins than the 3-5% haircut that was mentioned. Then add in a "major restructuring" Elon mentioned for the near future, and that never helps employee morale and productivity. When you put all those pieces together, it creates a negative outlook on Tesla's cash position that's quickly falling. I was hoping to hear a more solid plan to address the current cash burn and looming cash crunch now that hyper-automation at Fremont was an admitted overreach (watch Elon's recent CBS interview). I still have deposits on PW2 and M3, so the last thing I want is a bankruptcy where I never see my Tesla products. But as someone who was ready to also buy TSLA stock, I certainly didn't like what I heard and read in yesterday's earnings release. A solid and detailed plan forward that could have been shared by Tesla's CFO would have been better for all.

Elon is a brilliant person who thinks differently than 99% of the population. He doesn't accept failure once he has an idea (e.g., producing 10k M3s per week in 2018 via Alien Dreadnaught Fremont line). Yet sometimes reality is different, which requires an adjustment in the master plan for capital and operations...and the numbers that go with those new realities. Yesterday's call didn't address in any clear way the new reality of being at only 2k per week...and new hopes to be at 250% improvement (5k/week) in less than two months. So if the Plan B doesn't work out in the next two months, Q3 won't be profitable and cash will run out. So a responsible CEO and CFO of a PUBLICLY-TRADED COMPANY (emphasis added) must plan for and share said Plan B. It's fine for Elon to be Elon at SpaceX, as that's his private company. But things change when you run a $50B public company.
 
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i didn't see any positives in the conference call.

Model Y delayed. they are out of space so they will money for another plant.
they are losing money on the Model 3. that's with the longer range battery and all the upgrades.
Model 3 $35k model is vaporware. we won't see smaller range battery because it won't be profitable to make it.


automation is not working. that was the whole plan. the machine to make the machine. now they have to hire like crazy to get people to work. the employees have had no training. quality will be poor. leaving the service centers to handle the mess.

Elon is frustrated. there are no good answers so better to take fluff youtube question. the answers are all bad to the analysts questions.
 

jelloslug

Active Member
Jul 21, 2015
4,738
6,420
Greenville, SC
I judge Tesla on the totality of my years of extensive research that began after my first Roadster test drive, which was the day in 2011 that I fell in love with what Tesla has created. I also enjoy high risk investments, not index funds, as I want to roll the dice in exchange for high returns. That said, as much as Tesla fans loved Elon giving Wall Street the finger yesterday, it wasn't beneficial for long-term investors and owners of Tesla...because Elon MAY need to raise equity later this year IF his optimistic plans of finally becoming profitable don't pan out. Tesla's debt is very expensive and trading at a discount. If you've studied the numbers of Tesla as I have, there's a very real possibility that the high cash burn will force the need for more capital to be raised in the next 6-12 months, even though Elon doesn't WANT to go there. That's the job of a CFO - to warn the CEO well in advance of all scenarios. But if Elon feels invincible because of his ego (that most every billionaire has), perhaps he's ignoring the warning signs. But I have noticed key CUSTOMER warning signs, like trying to buy a $100k solar roof that Tesla promoted, but couldn't yet sell. So I paid $50k to their competition. I tried to buy the PW1 since day 1, but it was not for sale in the midwest and was replaced by PW2. I tried to buy a couple of those for 18 months; nope! I sold my S in January with plans for the 3; then saw first-hand the poor quality rolling off the line due to lacking quality control. When demand for a product is busting at the seams, but supply is this constrained...one should listen extra close to things like an earnings call. 25% margins on a $35k car were predicated on massive advancements in the machine building the machine (at a rate of 10,000 per week). Now CapEx is being reduced (at GF1, which is less than one-fourth complete; and the high automation is being replaced at Fremont with yet-to-be-hired third shift workers...raising OpEx). The only result of all this is much lower margins than the 3-5% haircut that was mentioned. Then add in a "major restructuring" Elon mentioned for the near future, and that never helps employee morale and productivity. When you put all those pieces together, it creates a negative outlook on Tesla's cash position that's quickly falling. I was hoping to hear a more solid plan to address the current cash burn and looming cash crunch now that hyper-automation at Fremont was an admitted overreach (watch Elon's recent CBS interview). I still have deposits on PW2 and M3, so the last thing I want is a bankruptcy where I never see my Tesla products. But as someone who was ready to also buy TSLA stock, I certainly didn't like what I heard and read in yesterday's earnings release. A solid and detailed plan forward that could have been shared by Tesla's CFO would have been better for all.

Elon is a brilliant person who thinks differently than 99% of the population. He doesn't accept failure once he has an idea (e.g., producing 10k M3s per week in 2018 via Alien Dreadnaught Fremont line). Yet sometimes reality is different, which requires an adjustment in the master plan for capital and operations...and the numbers that go with those new realities. Yesterday's call didn't address in any clear way the new reality of being at only 2k per week...and new hopes to be at 250% improvement (5k/week) in less than two months. So if the Plan B doesn't work out in the next two months, Q3 won't be profitable and cash will run out. So a responsible CEO and CFO of a PUBLICLY-TRADED COMPANY (emphasis added) must plan for and share said Plan B. It's fine for Elon to be Elon at SpaceX, as that's his private company. But things change when you run a $50B public company.
None of this is new. Tesla (and Musk) have always operated like this.
 

FlyinLow

Enjoy the journey
Feb 5, 2018
335
330
29036
quarterly calls can be quite open, if you want to see open check out Tmobiles last conference call.
...Details of Ford Motor Company’s
...April 2018 U.S. Sales Conference Call
Surely more boring than Elon's outburst but take a listen and see what you think.

Tesla is a company that is quite young. It would be more interesting to compare Ford’s first 10 years to Tesla’s first ten.

I listened to the whole Tesla conference call. Not nearly as “off the hook” as all the “internet media” would have me think.
 

jkennebeck

Member
Apr 29, 2016
189
452
Richmond, VA
The 2 questioners I ignored on the Q1 call are sell-side analysts who represent a short seller thesis, not investors

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 4, 2018


There's your answer. If he truly believes (as he' stated) the company turns the corner in 2H18 (cash flow positive AND profitable) he's just poking the eyes of the closest representatives of the short sellers. Probably hoping they'll advise to short more shares and get burned in the next 6-9 months. Both Spak and Sacconaghi have market perform ratings on it. Only been covering the stock since 2015 and 2017 respectively. And they are both ranked the lowest (5's on a 1-5 scale, 1 being the best) on the Bloomberg Absolute Return Ranking of analysts on the stock over the past year.

Here's a stat:
Annualized Return since 6/3/2010:
S&P500 15%
Russell 1000 Consumer Disc Index 19%
S-Network Global Autos Index 12%
Tesla 38%

If you're a long term investor in the company, his vision and its ideas you're probably still doing ok.

My guess is he 'wants' everyone to think he's burned out and crazy...



Like a fox.
 
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azred

Active Member
Apr 12, 2016
2,100
3,189
Chandler, AZ
So it turns out the targeted analysts are not shorts and Elon's latest tweets express regret.

America in 2018: Two rich guys that dominate and use social media like a hammer to their advantage no matter the facts and who gets hurt. Yet both somehow get by with it and are unconditionally defended by their admirers no matter how bizarre their conduct.
 

ggr

Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!
Moderator
Mar 24, 2011
7,059
28,991
San Diego, CA
I'm with you. His frustration over the lack of balance in stories, just playing up the sensationalism was clear. And now the media has taken that to assign a 'Trump-like' label to his protest over that. Because THAT sells more papers and gets more clicks than talking about his frustration over the negative spin that misleads readers.

Instead of taking care with getting his frustration adequately reported, they pile on and give him a label resulting in casual readers thinking he feels differently than he does.
I finally got around to listening to the call (recorded), and I was struck by the 20 seconds or so of silence before he went medieval on the short side analysts. I have a picture in my mind of him muting the phone, turning to JB and Deepak, rolling his eyes, them nodding...
 
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Don't be an idiot... There is a HUGE difference between lying and setting aggressive goals that you might not make. A logical and rational person an understand that... Can you?

Jeff

Setting an aggressive goal that you know will not be able to reached is a lie. One that has a slight chance is not a lie

3 months maybe, 6 months definitely. have we seen level 3 yet?

upload_2018-5-4_20-22-48.png


As early as mid-2016, Tesla executives responsible for planning and building the Model 3 production line plainly told Defendant Musk and the other Defendants in person, providing specific support for their statements that the Company could never mass produce the Model 3 by the end of 2017. These Tesla executives told Musk and the other Defendants that it was an impossible goal."

"In May 2017, when Defendants stated that the Company was on track to meet its mass production goal, as production on a fully automated production line was supposed to be ready to begin, and in August 2017, when production on a fully automated production line was supposed to have already been in place and Model 3s were supposed to be coming off the line, according to a number of former employees, the Company had not yet finished building its automated production lines in wither Fremont or Nevada. Tesla was neither ramping up mass production, nor on track to mass produce Model 3s at any time on or around the end of 2017."


"Defendants Musk and Ahuja, who visited the Fremont facility on a regular basis, knew that the Model 3 production line was way behind the publicly announced schedule and that it would never mass produce the Model 3 in 2017

edited to provide link to lawsuit

Tesla Shareholder Lawsuit Claims Elon Musk Misled Investors on Model 3 Goals
 
Last edited:

timk225

Active Member
Mar 24, 2016
2,059
2,371
Pittsburgh
Musk has clear goals for Tesla, and those goals do not include kissing ass to stockholders and investors. If they don't like how Tesla is doing, they can GTFO. Investors do not care about Tesla's long term goals, and I am glad that Musk does.

Anyone who shorts Tesla stock, the more they lose, the happier I get.
 
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jeffro01

Active Member
Jan 30, 2013
2,701
3,163
Teller County CO
Setting an aggressive goal that you know will not be able to reached is a lie. One that has a slight chance is not a lie

3 months maybe, 6 months definitely. have we seen level 3 yet?

View attachment 298860

As early as mid-2016, Tesla executives responsible for planning and building the Model 3 production line plainly told Defendant Musk and the other Defendants in person, providing specific support for their statements that the Company could never mass produce the Model 3 by the end of 2017. These Tesla executives told Musk and the other Defendants that it was an impossible goal."

"In May 2017, when Defendants stated that the Company was on track to meet its mass production goal, as production on a fully automated production line was supposed to be ready to begin, and in August 2017, when production on a fully automated production line was supposed to have already been in place and Model 3s were supposed to be coming off the line, according to a number of former employees, the Company had not yet finished building its automated production lines in wither Fremont or Nevada. Tesla was neither ramping up mass production, nor on track to mass produce Model 3s at any time on or around the end of 2017."


"Defendants Musk and Ahuja, who visited the Fremont facility on a regular basis, knew that the Model 3 production line was way behind the publicly announced schedule and that it would never mass produce the Model 3 in 2017

edited to provide link to lawsuit

Tesla Shareholder Lawsuit Claims Elon Musk Misled Investors on Model 3 Goals

I said don't be an idiot, not double down on it... You must have misunderstood...

Jeff
 
I said don't be an idiot, not double down on it... You must have misunderstood...

Jeff

He states looks like we can do 20,000 this doesn't sound like a goal to me but a fact. And where did he come up with this number from when neither the Fremont nor Nevada lines where done?

How many cars did they produce in the 4th quarter, I believe it was a little more the 2000 and that was for the whole 4th quarter not just December. Have they even done 20,000 cars a month yet.

But I guess you are right Mr. Castanza it's not a lie if you believe it.
 

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