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Musk: All modes AP by end 2019

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So Why Why did you pre-pay for the Kool-Aid:D

I'm probably going to regret it but I paid for the kool aid in my Model 3 because I have a feeling that 2018 is going to be a big year for EAP and FSD alike *but more importantly* I think that we're going to see the price end up non-trivially higher than $3k for after-purchase activation because I think either they're going to change their mind on what it's worth, or it's going to require a hardware upgrade, or both.
 
I think that we're going to see the price end up non-trivially higher than $3k for after-purchase activation

$4k after purchase, and that’s already a lot for swapping out a board that is significantly cheaper at volume plus labor. I don’t see it going up any for just FSD. It’s going to be hella-profitable at that price if they actually get it done, especially if they don’t have to swap out any AP 2.5 boards.
 
$4k after purchase, and that’s already a lot for swapping out a board that is significantly cheaper at volume plus labor. I don’t see it going up any for just FSD. It’s going to be hella-profitable at that price if they actually get it done, especially if they don’t have to swap out any AP 2.5 boards.

Whoops yeah meant 4K after activation. I think if they have to swap hardware the price will absolutely go up. If they don’t, I think it’s less likely.
 
All i'm trying to get across is that the idea that Tesla is the only company running deep neural networks is mistaken. Elon is the only one who blabs constantly about it though. Which leads to his fans making erroneous statements.

In referring to your comments, for example: deep learning neural network are simply a buzz word for neural network with many hidden layers. The most popular network today which is CNN was developed in the 90s.

So its wrong to say that eyeq4 is running nn models and eye5 is running deep learning neural networks because they are the exact same thing. Also the word model in this context is interchangeable with network. You can either call it a network or a model which is short for neural network model.

In short to reply to your statement, yes eyeq4 runs deep learning neural networks.
And no you won't need eyeq5 for Level 5, that's just marketing by mobileye. The only difference between eyeq5 and eyeq4 is that 5 has a boat load of TFLOPS for OEM to run any algorithm and even their own networks with.

All you need depending on your sensor size (some oem have like 10+ radars, 10+ cameras, 5+ lidar configuration) is two eyeq4.
And then a second intel/nvidia chip to run all your custom algorithm and driving policy if you wanted. Its similar to what Audi did with the L3 A8, they use an eyeq3 for all the vision stuff and then they use another chip to run their own custom algorithms for control actuation.

While you can run driving policy and your own custom algorithm in eyeq4 and that's what its made for. Some companies like waymo use intel chips with 50 TFLOP processing power.


Its kinda interesting how people would watch the above video and would rather take a project in its infancy rather than a product that is already finished. We know that Tesla is in the early stages of building their networks. Early early stages.

But because Elon has convinced alot of people that their cars are actually getting better even though when you look at the overall picture. You find out that you purchased a car with half its standard features missing which is being installed 2-3 years later through OTA. That's not a benefit that's a negative.

Saying that AP2 will keep improving and eyeq4 is static is not a positive to Tesla.
Its a huge negative. Its like having two people take a test and one finished first and got a 99.99% and the other is still taking the test and is just 20% through it. A bystander was asked to place bets on who would score better and he says the person whose not finished yet because he is able to improve but the guy whose finished will always be stuck at 99.99%.

Thank's for taking the time to educate the people here.

To me this isn't an issue Tesla vs ME, but really the stubbornness of some people here to refuse to believe that neural nets and deep neural nets are used by every damn company. There seems to be a lot of confusion and I blame Elon for throwing around all those fancy words, people obviously misinterpret.

If anyone of you is really interested in AI, or deep neural nets, then build you own one with TensorFlow, it really isn't that hard. And then you can run around and brag about your neural net.
 
Whoops yeah meant 4K after activation. I think if they have to swap hardware the price will absolutely go up. If they don’t, I think it’s less likely.
Eh, the boards really aren’t that expensive. The PX2 pushes fewer TFLOPS than a 2 year old 1080 and has half the RAM on board. Granted it has some extra stuff on there, but when you are ordering them in the 100’s of thousands, there’s no way they go above $1k/board, especially as prices go down with time. Even with labor included for a supposedly easily swappable board, you’re still looking at 50%+ margins on a FSD upgrade. We are mostly just paying for programming time and energy.
 
Eh, the boards really aren’t that expensive. The PX2 pushes fewer TFLOPS than a 2 year old 1080 and has half the RAM on board. Granted it has some extra stuff on there, but when you are ordering them in the 100’s of thousands, there’s no way they go above $1k/board, especially as prices go down with time. Even with labor included for a supposedly easily swappable board, you’re still looking at 50%+ margins on a FSD upgrade. We are mostly just paying for programming time and energy.

I'd say we'll probably find out at some point but maybe we won't :D
 
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