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Blog Musk Hopes SpaceX Falcon Heavy Launch Will Inspire Space Race

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SpaceX received cheers around the world this week for the successful launch of Falcon Heavy, which is now the most powerful rocket in operation. In fact, TMC members from all over traveled to view the launch in person.

Now that Starman’s breathtakingly scenic livestream has ended, here’s roundup of some of the details that emerged around the mission.

Payload: The Roadster – SpaceX delighted the world with a livestream of Elon Musk’s Tesla Roadster traveling through space. Typical of a Tesla, acceleration was more rapid than expected. The Roadster was supposed to follow a path around the Sun that would place it near Mars’ orbit. However, the second stage burn overshot that trajectory and beyond an encounter with Mars. Musk previously said the car may reach the asteroid belt, but SpaceX later updated the projection to say the car will come short of that distance. As Space.com notes, “Starman and Musk’s Roadster are in an elliptical orbit around the sun. At their closest point to the sun, they will fly just inside the Earth’s orbit. At their farthest away, they’ll be 243 million miles (390 million kilometers) from the sun. For comparison, Earth’s average distance from the sun is about 93 million miles (150 million km). Mars orbits the sun at 142 million miles (228 million km).”

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The livestream of Starman and the Roadster was the second largest in YouTube’s history, reaching more than 2.3 million concurrent views.

Track the Roadster as a Celestial ObjectNASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s website allows users to track the Roadster’s position in space. Within the interface, click “change” next to the target body, type in “SpaceX,” hit enter, then click “Generate ephemeris.” The same system tracks all the other bodies in the Solar System.

But NASA also provides a disclaimer: “Prediction errors could increase significantly over time due to unmodeled solar presure [sic], thermal radiation, or outgassing accelerations that are not characterized.”

Middle Booster – The center core only fired one of the three engines necessary for landing and it missed the drone ship. The booster slammed into the water at 300 mph, showering the deck of the ship with shrapnel, according to Musk. SpaceX at least knows the source of the landing failure to address before the next launch.

The outer boosters, however, separated as expected about two and a half minutes after liftoff and returned to Earth, spectacularly touching down just seconds apart.

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Arch Mission Foundation
– SpaceX placed an “Arch” storage system containing Isaac Asimov’s Foundation book series inside the Roadster. An Arch is “5D optical storage in quartz” – small glass disks – capable of storing 360 terabytes of data, with an estimated lifespan of up to 13.8 billion years. The disks are expected to survive even in the harsh conditions of space. Asimov’s work was added to the payload in support of the Arch Mission Foundation. The foundation’s goal is to permanently archive human knowledge for thousands to billions of years. “We exist to preserve and disseminate humanity’s knowledge across time and space, for the benefit of future generations.”

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Space Suit
– The Starman mannequin was wearing an actual production SpaceX crew spacesuit. The sleek suit will be worn by SpaceX astronauts flying on Crew Dragon. And Starman wasn’t just being stylish. The suit was being tested in the correct conditions to meet qualification articles set by NASA in order to operate crewed launches.

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“I mean, it’s a dangerous trip, you want to look good,” Elon Musk said at a press conference following the launch. “It’s easy to make a spacesuit that looks good but doesn’t work; it’s really hard to make a spacesuit that works, and looks good.”

Falcon Heavy is Capable – The rocket proved its power. “The great thing about Falcon heavy is that it opens up a new class of payload,” Musk said. “It could launch one more than twice as much payload as any other rocket in the world, so it’s up to customers what they might want to launch. But it can launch things direct to Pluto and beyond. No stop needed.”

Musk Wants to Inspire – Despite losing the center core and missing the payload target, the Falcon Heavy launch is considered a great success. Musk said he welcomes competitors, as it will help continue to push science and technology forward.

“I think it’s going to encourage other countries and companies to raise their sights and say hey we can do bigger and better, which is great,” he said. “We want a new space race. Races are exciting.”

 
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If so much money is to be invested into aerospace engineers, let them figure out electric trans-continental flight. Supersonic. Take-off with a maglev winch. It's already done in amusement parks for rollercoasters.

If you watched the IAC presentation Elon Musk gave, he mentioned that SpaceX is already working on this with the BFS. Since it runs on Methane, he plans to use solar power to convert CO2 and Water into methane to fuel the ship that will transport you on suborbital flights around the world.

And to answer your original question, Yes, I believe it is good for humanity. This topic has been covered in this sub forum a decent amount. I recommend you browse some of the other threads, some great knowledge here.
 
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If you watched the IAC presentation Elon Musk gave, he mentioned that SpaceX is already working on this with the BFS. Since it runs on Methane, he plans to use solar power to convert CO2 and Water into methane to fuel the ship that will transport you on suborbital flights around the world.

And to answer your original question, Yes, I believe it is good for humanity. This topic has been covered in this sub forum a decent amount. I recommend you browse some of the other threads, some great knowledge here.
Cheers, I read some tidbits about the BFS. Not sure that's the way to go, really. No way it'd be affordable enough that I can see. Concorde² in that sense, only for the 1% of 1% of 1%? Impractical for the way you'd board it and the noise levels involved.
Imagine a maglev track would lauch you at a decent angle, sub-sonic, with good mass behind it for a nice mass/drag ratio. You'd come so high before you'd even need to start any props or fuel powered boosters. Well over the ocean before you start making some noise. And, one could imagine launch tubes for planes and boosters in low drag configuration, starting under land and exiting in mid-sea from a man-made kind of vulcano island. then it might as well launch supersonic. A few sailors and birds would hate it rather than a whole metropole.
 
Is a space race necessarily good for humanity? What did the last one bring us? Where did Concorde go? Where was the follow-up?
You are thinking very short term; what are the immediate technological spin-offs from going to space, how does building rockets help people right now, etc.

Broaden your horizons. Think thousands and millions of years into the future. Consider the existential risks to humanity over the next few hundred, thousand, and many millions of years if human civilization remains on Earth and is never established elsewhere.

This topic has been discussed before on TMC. But here is a very clear and readable analysis of why Elon wants to make human life multi-planetary (which is the mission of SpaceX): How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars - Page 2 of 5 - Wait But Why
 
[off topic]
Is a space race necessarily good for humanity? What did the last one bring us? Where did Concorde go? Where was the follow-up?
Are these kinds of billions better spent on aerospace engineers than agricultural engineers to rebuild forrests, waterways, farm land, etc, to feed the hungry and up the O2 levels?

Satellite imagery is now being used to help manage forests and agriculture. Spaces is working on making that information cheaper through reduced launch costs.

Mars rockets are really cool, but it would be nicer and more useful to electrify air traffic. To be honest, air traffic has a worse reputation than it deserves. Planes being big and cigar-shaped, their fuel economy is much better than most people realize. Taking a flight rather than a car to get to your destination is cleaner. Certainly if you don't carpool.

Average fuel efficiency of air travel is just over 50pmpg. 2 or more people in a reasonably efficient car beats it. One person in a very efficient car can beat it.

Electric airplanes are being worked on, but need further battery improvements. As battery technology has improved, the research activity has increased. But, things will seem to move relatively slowly in that space because it's a very risk-averse industry and it's almost entirely commercial, so the technology will only be commercialized when the new technology has a profit advantage.

Don't take this Muskian ground-to-ground seriously. Like the elevators and tunnels, it's just a way to generate dumb-media-fed excitement. The important stuff (much cheaper access to space and very heavy payload capability using methane-fueled rockets) isn't exciting enough to get attention.
 
You are thinking very short term; what are the immediate technological spin-offs from going to space, how does building rockets help people right now, etc.

Broaden your horizons. Think thousands and millions of years into the future. Consider the existential risks to humanity over the next few hundred, thousand, and many millions of years if human civilization remains on Earth and is never established elsewhere.

This topic has been discussed before on TMC. But here is a very clear and readable analysis of why Elon wants to make human life multi-planetary (which is the mission of SpaceX): How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars - Page 2 of 5 - Wait But Why
Unless we first cease polluting the earth there will be no future for Homo sapiens with ability to go into space.
 
Unless we first cease polluting the earth there will be no future for Homo sapiens with ability to go into space.
The reason Elon is so passionate about making Tesla a success is made clear in the mission statement of the company:

“Teslas mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.”

Inherent in that statement is the goal to “cease polluting the earth”, as you put it.

Elon is working on two things at the same time: preserve the earthly environment we all depend on to live, and establish a self-sustaining human colony on Mars in case life on Earth is extinguished for whatever reason (and there are many possible reasons that are not just theoretical, some of them are inevitable).

While the cost to establish a human colony on Mars may seem very high, in fact it is in my opinion only a tiny fraction of the annual GDP of the developed world. And now that we are getting close to having the necessary technology to accomplish that goal, it would be ethically indefensible not to attempt it. It is not an exaggeration to say that the future of humanity is at stake.

If we put off trying to make human life interplanetary because we are still “polluting the earth” than we will never get off earth. And we will all be screwed. That is not a future I want to see happen.
 
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Unless we first cease polluting the earth there will be no future for Homo sapiens with ability to go into space.
Just to add, we should also consider the current and future pollution of LEO. Space debris in LEO is vulnerable to the Kessler Syndrome and has the real potential to render this area of Space useless to humans for generations. Last year it only took a tiny orbiting fleck of paint to put a significant gouge in a Cupola window on the ISS.
Kessler syndrome - Wikipedia
 
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The article clearly states Elon Musk's 2008 Tesla Roadster is ". . . in an elliptical orbit around the sun. At their closest point to the sun, they will fly just inside the Earth’s orbit. At their farthest away, they’ll be 243 million miles (390 million kilometers) from the sun. For comparison, Earth’s average distance from the sun is about 93 million miles (150 million km). Mars orbits the sun at 142 million miles (228 million km).”
This is also known as a heliocentric orbit. Heliocentric orbit - Wikipedia

The heliocentric orbit as calculated today predicts the Tesla Roadster will cross back to within .98% of the Earth's orbit and as far out as .056% further than Mars' orbit for millions of years. Of course this does not take into account a possible collision with an unmapped object of unknown size.

Roadster goes 243 / 142.0 = 1.71 times as far as Mars from the Sun. (Using numbers from your post.)



It was always supposed to trace an elliptical orbit around the sun. It was a test payload. Now, SpaceX itself created that confusion by not being being very precise about the intended orbit. They also released an animation that was flat out wrong (it showed the Roadster approaching Mars itself, rather than crossing its orbit). At any rate, the second stage used up all its fuel and it and the Roadster are now coasting on an elliptical orbit around the sun that will intersect Earth and Mars orbits.

I understood that orbit is tilted, so it does not actually intersect orbit of Mars. They could not avoid intersecting Earths orbit. I believe this limits its travel time.
 
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[off topic]
Is a space race necessarily good for humanity? What did the last one bring us? Where did Concorde go? Where was the follow-up?

[/off topic]
Dinosaurs died because they did not have space program. Extinction size asteroids are of course rare. City killer size asteroids come once in 100 - 200 years. (Tunguska event - Wikipedia was 10 - 30 megatons)
 
Just to add, we should also consider the current and future pollution of LEO. Space debris in LEO is vulnerable to the Kessler Syndrome and has the real potential to render this area of Space useless to humans for generations. Last year it only took a tiny orbiting fleck of paint to put a significant gouge in a Cupola window on the ISS.
Kessler syndrome - Wikipedia
Kessler syndrome is serious issue on high orbits, but it is not a problem on LEO. Read wiki page you linked.
 
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Dinosaurs died because they did not have space program.
They didn’t have opposable thumbs or a neocortex either, but that’s not what did them in.

Most species of what are popularly known as “dinosaurs” likely died because they could not adapt to the global climate changes that ensued after the Chicxulub impactor event slightly less than 66 million years ago.
 
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Cheers, I read some tidbits about the BFS. Not sure that's the way to go, really. No way it'd be affordable enough that I can see. Concorde² in that sense, only for the 1% of 1% of 1%? Impractical for the way you'd board it and the noise levels involved.

If it ends up being used in the way SpaceX imagined, it would be a choice for those who would want to pay the premium for the time savings. Around 1900, you had large ships crossing the ocean. When passenger airplanes were introduced they were very expensive but some would pay the premium. The same would be true here. Someone would be willing to pay the premium. The top 20% is more likely.
 
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They didn’t have opposable thumbs or a neocortex either, but that’s not what did them in.

Most species of what are popularly known as “dinosaurs” likely died because they could not adapt to the global climate changes that ensued after the Chicxulub impactor event slightly less than 66 million years ago.
OK. Give them opposable thumbs and neocortex equivalent. Without space program their civilization would have collapsed anyway. Then small mammals would eaten their eggs during cold nights.

It has been calculated that asteroid with 500 km diameter would kill last bacteria from Earth. We know that such impact has not happened since origin of life and that no such object inside of Kuiper belt comes close to Earth. We don't know what is in Kuiper belt and in Oort cloud. Oumuamua showed that mapping this solar system is not enough.

Mars as a backup planet is better than nothing, but it would be better to have tech to detect and deflect incoming objects.
 
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Supersonic. Take-off with a maglev winch. It's already done in amusement parks for rollercoasters.
Scale up and launch the plane in ultra low drag wing configuration, more rocket than prop jet. Launch might be near-sonic or supersonic in itself to insert as much kinetic energy into the plane as possible without addressing the on board batteries. Reach high crusing altitude quickly. Of course, this would be a plane with stable cabin pressure from boarding to landing.

Kinetic energy: 1/2*m*v^2
Potential energy: m*h*g
To reach an altitude in a vacuum with 0 residual speed:

1/2*m*v^2 = m*h*g
1/2*v^2 = h*g
v = sqrt(2*h*g)
g: 9.8 m/s^2
h: 10668 m (35 k ft)
Results in:
v = 457 m/s (1,022 MPH)
Speed of sound at sea level: 343 m/s (767 MPH)
So to get to 35k ft with zero air resistance would require an initial speed of Mach 1.33 at standard Earth sea level.
Assuming a 1 g acceleration (parallel to ground, does not compensate for the angle needed to reach 35k ft)
457/9.8 = 46.6 second acceleration
Distance traveled = 1/2*9.8*46.6^2 = 10,640 m (6.6 miles)
Might be handy for the moon, but does not seen practical on earth. (Longest paved runway is Chinese Qamdo Bamda Airport at 3.4 miles)
 
It has been calculated that asteroid with 500 km diameter would kill last bacteria from Earth. We know that such impact has not happened since origin of life and that no such object inside of Kuiper belt comes close to Earth. We don't know what is in Kuiper belt and in Oort cloud. Oumuamua showed that mapping this solar system is not enough.

Mars as a backup planet is better than nothing, but it would be better to have tech to detect and deflect incoming objects.

Which you can do if you have a thriving industrial base in space. Elon has it right. You either stay on planet Earth and eventually become extinct or you expand out into the vast Universe.

The problem that he, and a lot of us interested in this stuff, have in explaining this issue with a lot of the general public is that humans have a lifespan of 75 years. So most are limited in their planning to less than 20 years or less. Trying to get them to consider long term plans that move into a hundred or possibly hundreds of years gets you dismissed and thought to be a crackpot. It's the same problem you run into when you discuss global warming. Long term thinking versus short term thinking, it's what makes Elon so appealing to a lot of us.

Getting off this planet is the key and you can only do that if it isn't ridiculously expensive. So Elon is on the right track.
 
Which you can do if you have a thriving industrial base in space. Elon has it right. You either stay on planet Earth and eventually become extinct or you expand out into the vast Universe.

The problem that he, and a lot of us interested in this stuff, have in explaining this issue with a lot of the general public is that humans have a lifespan of 75 years. So most are limited in their planning to less than 20 years or less. Trying to get them to consider long term plans that move into a hundred or possibly hundreds of years gets you dismissed and thought to be a crackpot. It's the same problem you run into when you discuss global warming. Long term thinking versus short term thinking, it's what makes Elon so appealing to a lot of us.

Getting off this planet is the key and you can only do that if it isn't ridiculously expensive. So Elon is on the right track.

But also, if you're staying put and are worried about large asteroid impacts, it helps a lot if you can send a bunch of probes into space without it costing too much.
 
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“Stay put” and the human race almost certainly goes extinct long before the Sun goes nova even if we can learn to block large aesteroids 100% of the time, which is very hard to do.

Putting serious resources into developing the capability to deflect large aesteroids is definitely worth doing. But as far as I know, currently no real effort is being made, just theoretical research into how it might be done. Elon is busy, to the 10th power. Someone else needs to step up. Private companies aren’t interested because there is no profit to be made. Governments can’t get a consensus in place to spend the money. We need another very wealthy visionary who cares about the future.