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Musk says Tesla will be able to make its vehicles completely autonomous by the end of this year.

spsheridan

Member
Sep 30, 2019
382
353
Los Angeles
From BBC Article:
Speaking via video, Mr. Musk told the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai:
I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly.
I feel like we are very close.
I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.
There are no fundamental challenges remaining.
There are many small problems.
And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.
Tesla 'very close' to full self-driving, Musk says
 

Soda Popinski

Member
May 9, 2018
407
543
Los Angeles, CA
I think we should parse this out a bit. He states "essentially complete autonomy" will happen. He doesn't say this year. He does say "basic functionality" for level 5 autonomy (read "feature complete") this year. He's previously clarified "feature complete" will still need supervision, as it just means all the features needed for eventual full autonomy are functioning, just not necessarily robustly.
 

diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
8,205
9,772
Terre Haute, IN USA
From BBC Article:
Speaking via video, Mr. Musk told the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai:

Tesla 'very close' to full self-driving, Musk says

Let's break it down:

"I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly.
I feel like we are very close."


Personally, I think Elon is a bit optimistic here. He's promised Tesla was close to L5 before. Last year, he said we would be "feature complete" by the end of last year. That was 7 months ago.

Will Tesla eventually get to L5? Sure. But the timeline is the big question. L5 is a tall order.

"I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year."

Again, he promised this 7 months ago. But we are definitely closer now to it being more likely.

He seems to be referring to "feature complete". Tesla is probably close to finishing "turning at intersections" which Elon sees as the last piece of the puzzle in order to complete a route from A to B with driver supervision. That is what Elon considers to be the basics of L5.

"There are no fundamental challenges remaining.
There are many small problems.
And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together."


I know I was accused of being arrogant in the other thread but I still think Elon is downplaying the problem here. Going from "feature complete" to true L5 is a bit more difficult than just solving some "small problems".
 
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boonedocks

MS LR Blk/Blk 19” OD-1/1/21 RN#1143376 DD 9/4 11am
May 1, 2015
3,067
5,554
Gainesville GA
But....he keeps saying it so people will continue to order their leased cars with the FSD option. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I have FSD on both or out Teslas but they are owned not leased.
 
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diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
8,205
9,772
Terre Haute, IN USA
He also talked about a complete rebuild of the software, maybe that one is being tested and is far superior to what we are using.

Well the rewrite purportedly stitches together all 8 camera views into a seamless 360 degree view and adds 3D labeling. So yes, I would definitely expect it to be far superior to what we are using. We might even infer from Elon's comments that the rewrite allows the car to navigate different intersections, making left and right turns, perceiving traffic in different directions (thanks to the 3D labeling) which would explain why Elon is so bullish that Tesla has solved the main challenges of L5 and is close to the "feature complete".
 

ElectroScoot

Member
Aug 28, 2019
42
64
Nevada
Agree with a lot of the above. "Basic functionality = "Feature complete" = adding autopilot on city streets with turns at intersections. Then comes stitching together summon + local AP + NoA.
It SEEMS unlikely because autopilot is currently SO far from that . That said, the 3d re-write may be significantly better than current. Elon said it will be "multiple orders of magnitude" improvement; if that is true, then yeah, something one-hundred to one-thousand times better could do it.
The best glimpse we have of the 3d-system is garbage can labeling (among some other things) and, frankly, it is extremely accurate. If you expand that accuracy to lane determination and vehicle labeling/movement predictions, you will see big improvements. Let's not forget that the current system is MOSTLY using HW2 emulators.
The other unmentioned key is the new learning system, based on the NN-training-super-computers fast-forwarding and rewinding the fleet-uploaded 3d-videos to check accuracy and learn (similar to cut-in-detection "churns" as mentioned by Karpathy on Autonomy day) which is part of the "project Dojo" to be ready (supposedly) by end 2021.
So, L5FSD in 2020? No.
Rudimentary supervised feature complete AP by end 2020? Maybe.
Rapid improvement after project dojo churns in 2022? Likely.
My prediction for less-supervised (level 3) feature-complete AP = 2023.
True L5 FSD might require one more hardware generation HW4 plus lots and lots of tail-chasing. 2025?
All IMHO.
Reference: AP Cut-in detector churns:
 

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,779
8,008
Maine
Claiming you are close to L5 autonomy is certainly a great boost for the stock and for sales.

Elon Musk is such a master of bullshit. Make a statement and let the fanbois and the ignorant and story-hungry media misread it.

"I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year."

Fanboi/media filter:
"We will have level five autonomy this year."
 

Just a Reader

Member
Mar 10, 2014
280
113
Frankfurt, Germany
What is the "basic functionality" and how does it benefit the customer?
I suppose that it's "feature ready" until it smashes into an overturned truck on the freeway in broad daylight. Then they will tell you that it's "only beta" and that you were supposed to be in complete control at all times.
 

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,779
8,008
Maine
What is the "basic functionality" and how does it benefit the customer?
I suppose that it's "feature ready" until it smashes into an overturned truck on the freeway in broad daylight. Then they will tell you that it's "only beta" and that you were supposed to be in complete control at all times.

Basic functionality means reading traffic lights, road signs, road markings and being able to navigate in the space of vehicles, pedestrians and other objects so that it can turn at and pass through intersections.

The point is always one or both of (1) Automate a manual process to reduce labor (2) Augment a manual process to increase safety.

In this case it should be both.

When any of these new features are introduced it will remain a Level 2 vehicle and Tesla will continue to tell drivers to remain in control of the vehicle.
 

guitarman

Member
Oct 19, 2019
26
40
Toronto
Say what you will about Elon, but he has delivered on past promises, albeit late. But what he has said is nothing like what was said by the VW CEO in 2013:

“We are starting at exactly the right time," said Group CEO Martin Winterkorn before the [Frankfurt Auto] show.

"We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018."

Uhhh ... that was 2 years ago, and where is VW now? Where are ANY of the legacy automakers now on EVs?

My money is on Tesla. Literally. Elon has created the future and has not disappointed.
 

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