Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

A “quantum leap” improvement is coming to Tesla’s Autopilot software in six to 10 weeks, Chief Executive Elon Musk said a tweet.

Musk called the new software a “fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1294374864657162240

Musk said his personal car is running a “bleeding edge alpha build” of the software, which he also mentioned during Tesla’s Q2 earnings. 

“So it’s almost getting to the point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions, despite going through construction and widely varying situations,” Musk said on the earnings call. “So this is why I am very confident about full self-driving functionality being complete by the end of this year, is because I’m literally driving it.”

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software has been slow to roll out against the company’s promises. Musk previously said a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York using the Full Self Driving feature by the end of 2019. The company didn’t meet that goal. So, it will be interesting to see the state of Autopilot at the end of 2020.

 

[Silicon Desert]

You're right, I should at least get on the wait list. My SC isn't making appointments for MCU2 right now.

uh, the SD center has been doing them for quite a while. Check again

 

[mikegre]

As I post this (Monday Aug 17 3:42pm) Tesla is up 189 points. So let's cut Elon some slack, ok boys?

 

[FancyNancy]

I just hope the next leap will be the leap home

 

[nukequazar]

As I post this (Monday Aug 17 3:42pm) Tesla is up 189 points. So let's cut Elon some slack, ok boys?

No. Stock market wealth is no excuse for dishonesty, although that's what most of the world thinks anyway.

 

[fmerrow]

A "fundamental architectural rewrite" sounds like new code with new bugs we've never seen before.

Watch your car CAREFULLY when it is on AutoPilot for the first few months!

 

[Fonguy]

I see that there is well-deserved skepticism in the crowd.

I am 83 years old at the moment. I have invested in FSD upgrades for a Model 3 and Model Y despite the fact that I don't expect much FSD progress in my remaining lifetime (I am in excellent health at the moment. ) ). I did it for resale value for my heirs. (or theirs). FSD may be out of beta by the time Elon is buried on Mars...

 

[jaybee60]

Forgive me for not getting very excited. In Europe, we still have the modern equivalent of the Red Flag Acts of the nineteenth century which conspire to render FSD close to useless. Whatever improvements Musk makes, they won't be coming our way, that's for sure. EU bureaucrats have made certain of that.

 

[allelectrified]

Yes, that is the physics definition of "quantum" but ...

No it's not!! The physics definition of quantum has nothing to do with size.

It is to do with quantization, i.e. discreteness. The original quantum theory was about physical state variables not all being continuous.

In particular, in the early quantum insights, the energy in light of a particular wavelength does not come in arbitrary amounts. It comes in packets, i.e. discrete lumps. Similarly, electron orbits around nuclei cannot be at any energy level (radius), but are rather fixed to certain possible states.


Anyway, the "quantum leap" expression connotes a discontinuity, i.e. a discrete jump, the opposite of incremental. In non-physics parlance, that has come to mean a large change, but the etymology is to do with discreteness.

For a reference, see the third paragraph (2nd sentence) here:
Quantum mechanics - Wikipedia

By the way, more modern quantum mechanics (which evolved from quantum theory) of course has a lot more to say than physical states may be discretely distributed. "Quantum theory" refers to what predated the fuller developments of quantum mechanics.

 

[strouja]

I have a Telsa Model 3 with Hardware 2.5. I bought full self driving but never scheduled my upgrade to Hardware 3.0. I wanted Telsa to get better at doing the upgrade and faster which I know they have. I assume I would need to get my upgrade to Hardware 3.0 done before we can take full advantage of the new full self driving. If people have any insight on this just let me know. FYI My service center is in Tysons Virginia, USA

I was also waiting to see if there would have been a Hardware 4.0 that I could upgrade to but I don't know if that is coming anytime soon or if I can even get it in my car. I was thinking of just the new processor that Tesla developed for autopilot that replaces the nvidia one in the 2.5 version. That is what I was hoping to get in a possible upgrade to Hardware 4.0.

Thanks for any insight, James

 

[allelectrified]

Random non-intellectual sentiment: I don't care whether it comes on time or is buggy. I'm over-the-moon excited for what is about to come.

And I don't care because I already think it's just !@$%!#@ awesome.

I finished a road trip this past weekend. I've had the M3 for nearly 1.5 years. But when I got home I got out of my car and literally bowed down to the car in thanks.

It makes driving sooo much less taxing, and it is like living in a different world than any other car out there (well, that's the impression I get). We had two bikes on the roof, which affected efficiency but not really my choices. Since electricity is cheap (and clean in QC) I could just go normal speeds as I wanted. Effortless and quiet.

 

[DetroitBlinky]

I’m just glad to own a vehicle where we can have conversations about what the next software update will include, quantum leap forward or not. Our other vehicle, a 2016 Ford, had eligibility for one software update after we purchased it, but required us to take it to a dealer and could possibly include a service charge (unknown, but wouldn’t surprise me). That my car can get better (or possibly worse, it’s software development after all, but I’ve not felt that yet) just sitting in the garage is still something about owning a Tesla that I love. I don’t expect FSD to drive me around without intervention under all conditions, especially not in Michigan, but the driver assist features in the Model 3 are already vastly better than those of any competitor, and not even in the same ballpark as our 2016 vehicle. I wish Tesla the best in getting the rewrite successfully launched, and maybe we’ll all be amazed at the improvement in functionality, but frankly I’m already amazed at what It can do. Looking forward to seeing it.

 

[MXLRplus]

Random non-intellectual sentiment: I don't care whether it comes on time or is buggy. I'm over-the-moon excited for what is about to come.

And I don't care because I already think it's just !@$%!#@ awesome.

I finished a road trip this past weekend. I've had the M3 for nearly 1.5 years. But when I got home I got out of my car and literally bowed down to the car in thanks.

It makes driving sooo much less taxing, and it is like living in a different world than any other car out there (well, that's the impression I get).

How many other cars with autosteering have you driven long distances with?

 

[allelectrified]

How many other cars with autosteering have you driven long distances with?

No, none; that's my hedge at the end. Maybe I'd bow down to other cars.
Though I'm not just impressed with the autosteering. It's the NOA, the supercharging, the power (AWD LR, not performance), ... everything.

Regardless, the pace of technological improvement makes me giddy. How can we not be thrilled with it? It's insane. We live in truly crazy times. When I was born we didn't have home computers. It's just an explosion of power and magic...

 

[diplomat33]

No it's not!! The physics definition of quantum has nothing to do with size.

It is to do with quantization, i.e. discreteness. The original quantum theory was about physical state variables not all being continuous.

In particular, in the early quantum insights, the energy in light of a particular wavelength does not come in arbitrary amounts. It comes in packets, i.e. discrete lumps. Similarly, electron orbits around nuclei cannot be at any energy level (radius), but are rather fixed to certain possible states.

Anyway, the "quantum leap" expression connotes a discontinuity, i.e. a discrete jump, the opposite of incremental. In non-physics parlance, that has come to mean a large change, but the etymology is to do with discreteness.

For a reference, see the third paragraph (2nd sentence) here:
Quantum mechanics - Wikipedia

By the way, more modern quantum mechanics (which evolved from quantum theory) of course has a lot more to say than physical states may be discretely distributed. "Quantum theory" refers to what predated the fuller developments of quantum mechanics.

You are not wrong. You are describing quantization. I was referring to the scale that quantum physics works at. These quantum processes you describe occur on a very small scale, so small in fact, that quantum mechanics uses the planck length of 1.616255(18)×10−35 m as a unit of length.

 

[Tombolian]

Quantum = very small
Definition of QUANTUM

Ah, but the term is 'Quantum Leap' which has an entirely different definition according to Webster;

"a sudden highly significant advance; breakthrough"

C'mon brother, don't hate. Embrace!

 

[allelectrified]

You are not wrong. You are describing quantization. I was referring to the scale that quantum physics works at. These quantum processes you describe occur on a very small scale, so small in fact, that quantum mechanics uses the planck length of 1.616255(18)×10−35 m as a unit of length.

Haha! I think you and I agree about "quantum leap". I suppose I was trying to highlight a pedantic comment from @DanCar ... by being pedantic (since if you want to be pedantic, you should get it right). Of course, I did not intend to incite further pedantry in response! (and I would judge your response about QM as not correct, fwiw... but back to cars!! )

 

[Peteski]

It's going to take several "quantum leaps" before my car is going to be anywhere near true FSD. I'll be happy if this leap allows it to actually follow roads properly when they get a tiny bit tricky. Right now AP is quite handy on long motorway cruises, but still a million light years away from FSD. Can't even avoid simple pot holes in the road or control its speed properly on approach to tight bends. Even simple lane changes are still a challenge for the current system!

I expect continual improvement, but I don't believe the hype for one second

 

[Wingsy]

I'm going to limit my expectations to a non-jerky ride. Phantom braking and jerky braking at signs and lights are the #1 reasons my wife rides with a high anxiety level when I have TACC engaged. I don't like it one bit either but I can control my yelps.

 

[RheesB]

I'm with you Wingsy, I'd also like it to drive to my home at the 35 mph speed limit instead of suddenly slowing to 20 mph and even crossing the centerline in curves.

But, I have to say when driving it on Interstates and such it is grand.

I DO WANT POTHOLE DETECTION!

 

[FMinMI]

I think it'll be 10x more expensive. $99 per month at least.

If you say FSD is $8,000 then you'd need to use FSD for over 6.5 years for it to equal out right?

FSD outright purchase comes with residual value. What you need to do is work out the depreciation of buying FSD versus the leasing fee.
....
Ergo buying FSD today even at $8k is the better option.

Except if you car gets hit and the insurance company totals it. That is what I am most afraid of now with my 2016.5 MS w/FSD and free SuC... :-(