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Blog Musk Touts 'Quantum Leap" in Full Self-Driving Performance

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by TMC Staff, Aug 15, 2020.

  1. TMC Staff

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    #1 TMC Staff, Aug 15, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2020
    A “quantum leap” improvement is coming to Tesla’s Autopilot software in six to 10 weeks, Chief Executive Elon Musk said a tweet. Musk called the new software a “fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak.” The FSD improvement will come as a quantum leap, because it’s a fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak. I drive...
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  2. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    I am suppressing my "inner fanboy" because if we set expectations too high, we are likely to be disappointed. Let's not forget that Elon called Smart Summon "magical" and said it would "blow our minds". And we all know Smart Summon fell way short of that when it was first released. Elon is great at hype. And he admits that he cannot quite do his work-home commute free of disengagements so we know the rewrite won't be able to handle everything. My guess is that the rewrite will be a big improvement over what we have now and it will do turns at intersections. So some simple commutes will have zero disengagements. But I suspect there will be plenty of situations that the rewrite cannot handle.
     
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  3. DanCar

    DanCar Active Member

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    Quantum = very small
    Definition of QUANTUM
     
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  4. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, that is the physics definition of "quantum" but Merriam-Webster defines "quantum leap" as "an abrupt change, sudden increase, or dramatic advance". In context, that is how Elon is using the term. He is trying to say that the rewrite will be an abrupt, sudden, dramatic improvement.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Xenoilphobe

    Xenoilphobe Active Member

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    Elon still living on the factory floor? If so I believe him.
     
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  6. powertoold

    powertoold Active Member

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    The rewrite is Tesla's last chance at redemption on FSD.
     
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  7. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Well-Known Member

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    Elon posted this because he has the latest version in his own car and finds the experience vastly improved.

    Due to this, he can actually see "into the future" and sees what will be coming to the fleet "soon:
     
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  8. DanCar

    DanCar Active Member

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    #8 DanCar, Aug 15, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2020
    Tesla will have several more rewrites and several more hardware updates before succeeding. You might think others are close, but I doubt it, I also hope I'm wrong. Who do think is their closest competitor? Mobileye? Have they announced a timeline that is credible? Their timeline from 2018 went to ashes.
     
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  9. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Well-Known Member

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    Tesla has a policy of continous improvement.
     
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  10. powertoold

    powertoold Active Member

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    There's no "competitor" imo. All the fsd development companies are trying to expand the bleeding edge of NN research and implementation. None of them will succeed until they've achieved the 999s with machine learning approaches. IMO, Tesla has the most convincing reliability and accuracy with their NN with the release of the traffic control feature.
     
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  11. john5520

    john5520 Member

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    Well Elon, let's see what you got in store! I'm bumping my hopes back up.
     
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  12. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

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    Maybe a quantum leap to the programmers and engineers or will current FSD drivers also be wowed, hope this isn't just pylons again.
     
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  13. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    The rewrite is definitely a quantum leap in terms of how the software works since it is going from 2.5D to 4D, ie just processing images to processing video from all 8 cameras. The unknown is how good it will actually be in terms of driving features.
     
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  14. MXLRplus

    MXLRplus Active Member

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    It would be a quantum leap just to debug the code that is already flashed into the car. Start there.

    Why?

    How can you trust a hands-free system written by folks famous for buggy code. I wouldn't drive a Microsoft AV either.
     
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  15. whitex

    whitex Well-Known Member

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  16. DrtyJrze

    DrtyJrze Member

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    6-10 weeks for “limited” public release. Let’s be super generous with adjusting Elon time to reality and say 12 weeks until we all receive the rewrite. That’s mid November.

    Does anyone actually believe in the remaining 6 weeks of the year FSD will be complete for everyone?

    Knowing Musk he’ll say HIS FSD is complete December 30th and limited public release will be 6-10 weeks from that date. We are all still here speculating next spring, lol.
     
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  17. gluu

    gluu Member

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    "
    From my understanding, the rewrite and v11 should be out around the same time. I’m told v11 will be out about a month after the rewrite is complete. Literally don’t take this as any bit fact, but I have a hunch we may see v11 as early as late September. From my understanding v11 is running ahead of schedule. The only reason v11 may be out slightly after the rewrite is if the v11 UI relies on stuff from the rewrite. That’s my theory anyway.

    The first version of the rewrite will be about the same as the current AP. A lot of new features will come really fast tho after about the first month. 90-degree turns will be in early access almost straight away. As well as smart summon is getting some huge improvements pretty fast after release. I’ve been saying, new smart summon will drive like a human. People will say “well humans drive bad”. I mean as far as moving in a parking lot. It drives with the flow most humans drive with. Whereas now summon stops randomly in the road and can’t see parking spots. With the rewrite, most people wouldn’t
    "

    Version 11? : teslamotors

    This guy apparently has friends in the autopilot team and has had accurate leaks before.
     
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  18. SOULPEDL

    SOULPEDL Supporting Member

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    Each quantum leap erases all doubts until the next, as there will be more.
    Only one question remains: Is this the one that gets to 10x human performance to turn that page?
    With just little more help from all of us, yes.
    Engage.

    upload_2020-8-16_0-9-8.png
     
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  19. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. That seems credible since V10 was rolled out in a similar way.

    The V11 UI depending on the rewrite implies that we will be getting new FSD visualizations. Yeah!

    Definitely looking forward to the new features too.
     
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  20. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Elon Musk: will
    Reality: are trying to

    Show me.
     
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