Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

A “quantum leap” improvement is coming to Tesla’s Autopilot software in six to 10 weeks, Chief Executive Elon Musk said a tweet.

Musk called the new software a “fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1294374864657162240

Musk said his personal car is running a “bleeding edge alpha build” of the software, which he also mentioned during Tesla’s Q2 earnings. 

“So it’s almost getting to the point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions, despite going through construction and widely varying situations,” Musk said on the earnings call. “So this is why I am very confident about full self-driving functionality being complete by the end of this year, is because I’m literally driving it.”

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software has been slow to roll out against the company’s promises. Musk previously said a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York using the Full Self Driving feature by the end of 2019. The company didn’t meet that goal. So, it will be interesting to see the state of Autopilot at the end of 2020.

 

[Gquinn]

This FSD reminds me of an old Benny Hill ditty
“They told him a job that couldn’t be done.
With a smile he went right to it!
He tackled the job that couldn’t be done.
And he couldn’t bloody do it...”
I had one of those in my career

 

[whitex]

As I post this (Monday Aug 17 3:42pm) Tesla is up 189 points. So let's cut Elon some slack, ok boys?

Stock performance doesn't always indicate success, remember Bre-X? Lucky for Tesla they have real value in EV and battery technologies, not just hype of full self driving (like Bre-X had gold hype).

 

[diplomat33]

As I post this (Monday Aug 17 3:42pm) Tesla is up 189 points. So let's cut Elon some slack, ok boys?

So we should just trust Elon that Tesla will solve an incredibly difficult problem like FSD just because the stock price is going up? LOL. Stock price has nothing to do with FSD. The stock price is shooting up because investors are speculating and pushing the price up.

 

[Carletto]

Hopefully not a QUANTUM deception!!

 

[CharleyBC]

I have a Telsa Model 3 with Hardware 2.5. I bought full self driving but never scheduled my upgrade to Hardware 3.0. I wanted Telsa to get better at doing the upgrade and faster which I know they have. I assume I would need to get my upgrade to Hardware 3.0 done before we can take full advantage of the new full self driving. If people have any insight on this just let me know. FYI My service center is in Tysons Virginia, USA

I was also waiting to see if there would have been a Hardware 4.0 that I could upgrade to but I don't know if that is coming anytime soon or if I can even get it in my car. I was thinking of just the new processor that Tesla developed for autopilot that replaces the nvidia one in the 2.5 version. That is what I was hoping to get in a possible upgrade to Hardware 4.0.

Thanks for any insight, James

About 2 weeks ago we got our HW3 upgrade, plus a couple service bulletins, filters, wipers, and a body alignment fix. The whole thing took 1.5 hours. So, yeah, it’s gotten quick.

 

[CharleyBC]

So, “Limited public release”. What does that mean? It seems to imply not all of us with FSD.

 

[youngmcdonald]

Hopefully without phantom braking.

 

[diplomat33]

So, “Limited public release”. What does that mean? It seems to imply not all of us with FSD.

It probably just means Early Access first, then release to some of the fleet and then later, wide release to everyone, like how past updates have worked with big features.

 

[DennisLevitt]

I understand some of the anger because FSD isn't here yet, but seriously? It seems like no one has ever written software or designed hardware, let alone both. I know many of us have written or built stuff, and you should know it doesn't always happen as quickly as you think. And do you remember the last car you owned before a Tesla? How is that car doing with OTA updates? Is there anyone who can honestly say they'd rather go back to ICE?

 

[yak-55]

I am suppressing my "inner fanboy" because if we set expectations too high, we are likely to be disappointed. Let's not forget that Elon called Smart Summon "magical" and said it would "blow our minds". And we all know Smart Summon fell way short of that when it was first released. Elon is great at hype. And he admits that he cannot quite do his work-home commute free of disengagements so we know the rewrite won't be able to handle everything. My guess is that the rewrite will be a big improvement over what we have now and it will do turns at intersections. So some simple commutes will have zero disengagements. But I suspect there will be plenty of situations that the rewrite cannot handle.

History teaches that your expectations could not possibly be low enough ... prepare for disappointment.

 

[diplomat33]

I understand some of the anger because FSD isn't here yet, but seriously? It seems like no one has ever written software or designed hardware, let alone both. I know many of us have written or built stuff, and you should know it doesn't always happen as quickly as you think. And do you remember the last car you owned before a Tesla? How is that car doing with OTA updates? Is there anyone who can honestly say they'd rather go back to ICE?

That's not it. It's not that we are just too impatient and want FSD sooner. Elon himself promised FSD would happen by now. Even now, Elon has again said that Tesla is close to L5. That's why we are critical. We are just holding Elon to what he said he could deliver. And you are right that software is hard, especially for something like FSD. So why did Elon say that FSD was solved in 2015 when it was not ready yet? Why did Elon promise FSD many times when it was not ready yet? You are right that software is hard and does not happen as quickly as we think, but that seems to be a lesson that Elon has forgotten because he keeps promising FSD before it is ready.

 

[Beachybumm]

Agreed on Elon continuing to say FSD will be avialbke by "end of year," which seems great if he hadn't been saying the same thing since 2016.

My M3 can't even go around sharp curves going "over the hill" in LA, let alone fsd. It seems we are leaps and bounds from L5, but he's not only saying it's almost here, he's also touting a ride sharing service.

Nobody is denying that hardware/software is difficult, but Elon should just be honest to customers. Underpromise, overdeliver.

 

[ChicagoJoe]

Great. So now I know why it works for him so well and not me. I guess if I had his commute, it would work well for me. But, I don’t so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Can’t use summon. Can’t autopark from alley into garage. Can’t handle many interchanges. Can’t drive under overpasses without freaking out. Can’t handle stop lights and signs on its own. I didn’t realize I would have to teach this 3,500lb toddler to walk when I paid the $6 grand for the privilege. Knowing what I know now, maybe I would have bought AP this summer when discounted to $2 grand — MAYBE. I should have saved my money and had a lower payment.

Someday, when this is an actual real world functional feature, it will be worth it. Only then, it will be included as a standard feature and it won’t cost anything extra. Until then, we fell for Elon’s gambit and are paying him thousands for the privilege of beta testing his software.

And people thought Bill Gates was ripping people off...

 

[uspearls]

uh, the SD center has been doing them for quite a while. Check again

Maybe they were but now if I select "Infotainment Upgrade" I get the message "Submit your request and we will notify you to schedule service when parts are in stock" (this is for Miramar). Having said that, I admit to sorta wanting to roll the dice for a few months and play "Let's Make A Deal"....how about it Elon?!

 

[IanAber]

I love my Model S and all t can do but lets be realistic. Elon has made many, many wild claims about Full Self Driving being just around the corner. In the mean time development has moved forward at a much more realistic pace and Elon's claims have, time and time agian, proven to be wildly optimistic to the point of irresponsibility. If we ever do get to a point where Full Self Driving is a reality it is extremely unlikely to be with the hardware we have right now either because it is not capable or because it is so old it has reached the end of its useful life.

It is often touted that the life span of a Tesla is very much more than an Internal Combustion Car but the reality is that most often the reason why a traditional car reaches the end of its life is not because of the engine but because of all the rest of the systems which are either exactly the same or at least very similar to a Tesla. Wheel bearings disintegrate, suspension collapses and the interiors fall apart long before the engine and transmission dies on a gasoline car.

Full self driving is an extremely difficult problem to crack and even though Tesla may have some fo the best engineers on the planet working on it they are not even close to having something ready for the world at large. Smart summon simply doesn't work in the vast majority of situations and autopilot is like a nervous learner, not even close to the most mediocre human driver. It is an expensive gimmick that is nice to use to take some of the stress out of a journey but is years from being able to drive without constant supervision. Auto park is not even worth playing with. If you cannot park substantially better than a Tesla in auto park mode then you should not be driving at all.

Elon has to keep making these wild claims and predictions, which probably, hopefully, make him a little embarrassed. It is a requirement of running the Tesla organisation that he keeps the hype alive to retain enthusiasm from owners and prospective customers but his completely unrealistic time lines have proven to be ridiculously over optimistic for as long as Tesla has been a company.

 

[cabaa99]

You know, this thread brought back a little bit of nostalgia - reminded me of all those die hard fans of Elon back in the days of AP2.0 introduction, predicting things based on Elon's statements:
Muted Auto Industry response to Tesla's Full Self Driving move - why?
"Tesla expects to enable full self-driving by the end of 2017"
Initial 1000 HW2 cars getting AP software 12/31/16
Frustrated with FSD timeline
An old saying comes to mind: "Those who don't learn their history, are doomed to repeat it"

The only thing that really matters is that there is continued progress towards a goal. Do you see competitors doing that, getting close? Hardly. Pick what you want to take apart from each statement and you'll find something to be right about. People that move things forward need to be optimistic, even if their timeline is too aggressive. Rather have that than no progress at all.

 

[whitex]

The only thing that really matters is that there is continued progress towards a goal. Do you see competitors doing that, getting close? Hardly. Pick what you want to take apart from each statement and you'll find something to be right about. People that move things forward need to be optimistic, even if their timeline is too aggressive. Rather have that than no progress at all.

The only thing that matters to whom? Progress doesn't mean much really if you're nowhere near. Think about this, I shoot model rockets into the sky with my kids sometimes. Last month we shot one higher than ever, close to 300 ft probably. I am making progress towards the moon since I did get closer than ever before, right? And I have no competitors either trying to shoot a $25 rocket to the moon either. All that matters is progress, right? Want to invest?

Oh, you'll say you need more expensive rockets to get to the moon and I should be considering Space X a competitor because they are closer? Ok, then Tesla should consider Waymo a competitor. Waymo self driving (actually self driving without a driver, not Tesla FSD) is not close to Tesla, they left them in the dust long ago. Before you come back saying Waymo is not selling their cars to consumer, well SpaceX is not selling their rockets to consumers either. The rockets I shoot are available in hobby stores all over the world. How much can I put you down for a consumer $25 rocket to moon company? I'm pretty sure I can get even closer by shooting them higher than 300 ft off the ground, so there will be progress which is all that matters to you, right?

I stand by what I said 4 years ago, when people like yourself were telling me how FSD2.0 will drive kids to school, be able to be summoned across the country, etc - it will never happen. None of the cars Tesla sold the original FSD (before redefining it to consist primarily of features sold as EAP before in order to deliver FSD Texas sharpshooter style) will never happen via OTA or any free upgrades (since the FSD price supposedly included all the hardware that the car will EVER need to be fully self driving). Not that Tesla does thins, but even if they did, being able to handle even 60% of situations on the road means you're about 1% there to actual full self driving.

 

[Wingsy]

What I'm really curious about is making a turn at an intersection. At the first intersection I get to after leaving my house is one where the stop sign is well before the real world stopping point. You cannot see both ways where the car has actually stopped. What will it do?

 

[whitex]

What I'm really curious about is making a turn at an intersection. At the first intersection I get to after leaving my house is one where the stop sign is well before the real world stopping point. You cannot see both ways where the car has actually stopped. What will it do?

I was driving my wife's S recently and watching the AP2.5 display of what cars it sees. It cannot even reliably track cars going in the opposite directions - most of the time I would see them just fine, passing my car, but a significant number of times I saw the cars just disappear and appear back once they passed my car. Visibility was perfect, no blinding sun or rain or darkness. It doesn't see cross traffic almost ever either. So no, Tesla AP is nowhere near what you describe.

PS> My AP1 car still drives better on AP on the highway (lane keeping basically) than my wife's AP2.5 - so many phantom braking events on the AP2.5 that I turned it off not to annoy drivers around or cause an accident. My wife keeps AP disabled completely after trying it for a week - she does not like it at all. An no, the phantom brakes were not slamming on brakes kind of event causing pile-ups, but completely unnecessary slow downs when the road curves or cars are near. So, maybe the new rewrite will at least match the AP1 quality for simple lane keeping? Not holding my breath though.

 

[chazzzle]

What I'm really curious about is making a turn at an intersection. At the first intersection I get to after leaving my house is one where the stop sign is well before the real world stopping point. You cannot see both ways where the car has actually stopped. What will it do?

What does a human do?