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MX Used Price Speculation for Dec 2019-March 2020

Hello all!
First post and all that!

My wife has known I've wanted a Tesla for years, and surprised me with a spreadsheet with budget changes and all that fun stuff to illustrate when we could get one if we save cashX over MonthsY, all that jazz. Anyways, Since then I've started doing a significant amount of reading and research, I've been watching the price history, and wanted to start a discussion on what people think could happen in the used market, and why in the next few months.

I've been focused on something in the sub $65K price, with the following key details:
  • 4 Year warranty available
  • AP1 is fine. Right now (Mid October 2019) majority of the Used inventories that are showing up are from July/Aug/Sept, which I assume are mostly units coming off Lease. so 2-3 months prior to the current Date are in the Used Pool available.
  • Love to get lucky and find a 90D, but we are okay with a 75D
  • Captains Chairs 2nd Row
Right now, it seems that an AP2 commands a 8-10K premium for similarly spec'd MX's and mileage with AP1

Speculation and Fortune Telling:
With the AP2 Nov/Dec 2016+ starting to come off Lease in December, I'm curious to see what other people think may happen with Tesla pricing of the used models in the coming months.

With a large influx of AP2 models from Nov/Dec 2016 and 2017, I'm hoping the following happens
  1. In January 2020, when the Lease Returns are going to be from Oct (AP1)/Nov (AP2)/Dec (AP2) Tesla drops the used price on AP2s to better align with available inventory vs New Ravens, maybe to the low-end of 60-65K
  2. With AP2s (Hopefully) discounted as low as the current 60-65K, the similar speced AP1s I'm looking for today will drop from 60-65K down to 55-60K.
I asked My magic 8 ball if they are going to play with the numbers on AP2s for 1-3 months, and it said "Better not tell you now".
I think we will see some strangely priced AP1 cars that don't seem to fit in with a fleet of used AP2+s in inventory, and silly priced AP2s to pair with it until the market levels out from the AP1s disappearing.

Side Question that i cannot find an reliable answer for:
If you get a Used 60 are they allowing them to be upgraded to 75s still?

Thanks everyone for a great forum with tons of information.

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