My 2011 Leaf needs a new battery - CPO or repair and wait?

[cdub]

Gahhh... Decisions decisions.

My original 2011 Nissan Leaf (very early purchase and first day reservation... on the last boat out of Japan before Fukashima) has gone done to 8 battery capacity bars. And of course it's 2 months past the 60 month warranty.

Nissan has agreed to pay $4,000 of the battery replacement cost so for $2,000 I'll have a "brand new" 60,000 mile Leaf. Of course all the online estimates for trade in for the Leaf is around $4,000 so for half the cars value I'll have a brand new battery.

I'm planning on bringing the car to carmax and tesla to get some more accurate trade in values this weekend.

So my options are:

1. Repair the battery. $2,000 and get the Model 3 whenever it comes out. I'm planning on maxing out the Model 3 (At least battery wise). That'll probably cost around $50k? Who knows for sure.
   • PRO - I'll have a "new" Leaf again for cheap. I love the car except I can't do long trips.
   • CON - I'll be paying half the cars value and throwing money towards a car that is rapidly losing value. Granted I'll probably be able to get more for the car in the private market with the new battery.
     
2. Don't repair the car. Pocket the $2,000 and wait until Model 3 comes out.
   • PRO - Won't throw money away at a depreciating asset.
   • CON - Car will depreciate even more and maybe won't even last until whenever the Model 3 comes out. It'll have to last and get me to work at least another year. It's on the verge of being close now... this is assuming it won't lose much more range.
     
3. Trade the Leaf in. Buy a CPO P85 or 85. Don't buy the Model 3.
   • PRO - The P85 is my dream car. Basically I'll be buying my dream car from 3 years ago. Consumer Reports best car ever.
   • CON - It's still expensive and I haven't saved up money to buy the next car yet. Also, I'm sure I'll have tech envy with the model 3. I'm more interesting in AP from a tech standpoint. I still want to DRIVE my car. Actually knowing me I KNOW I'll have tech envy with the Model 3.
     
4. Trade the Leaf in. Buy a CPO P85 or 85. And trade it in to buy the Model 3.
   
   • PRO - Best of both worlds.
   • CON - Probably the most expensive. If I don't pick out the right CPO Model S I could lose a lot of money by trading it in again.
     

The prudent and frugal side of me is leaning towards option 1. The other part of me is leaning towards option 3 or 4... but I'll have too see if I can avoid the new tech envy. That's going to be hard for me. But it's apparently going to be a constant problem to have when owning a Tesla so only buying CPOs might be a way to solve that problem.

 

[Reeler]

Get a Chevy Bolt. Analysts are saying the M3 is two years away. If you buy now you can get the $7500 in tax incentive. Once gone, new Bolt buyers will pay full price and I think the used price will be higher.

 

[cdub]

I'm not buying a bolt.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Why are you even asking this question? Pay the $2k, enjoy the next few years and do other stuff with the extra money you were thinking of spending on a CPO Tesla right now.

I aim for 10 years with a car. So if your Leaf could last another 5 years for $2k I think that'd be great.

Some fun things to do with the money saved:
- Improve home insulation
- Have solar PV with a Powerwall
- Replace old, inefficient appliances
- Buy an electric bicycle

 

[flankspeed8]

Why are you even asking this question? Pay the $2k, enjoy the next few years and do other stuff with the extra money you were thinking of spending on a CPO Tesla right now.

Agreed. Enjoy the range increase now while waiting for the 3.

 

[JRP3]

Sell the LEAF and buy a used MS 60?

 

[SageBrush]

$2000 for a NEW battery sounds like a wonderful deal.

Not refurbished
Not returned to 9 bars (the warranty provision.)

NEW

 

[CT200h]

take the deal on the battery and keep driving the Leaf!

 

[rypalmer]

I could be wrong, but it sounds like for the price of the battery, your car will appreciate by that much or more. I'd say take the upgrade unless you are able to get a better deal by trading the car in for a new Leaf, if that's what you'd be ok with holding you over with for the next year or two until your Model 3 reservation comes around.

 

[scottm]

I voted: $2000 battery. That's what I'd do. It's an opportunity that's very tempting. I'd certainly not pony up for whole new battery myself. If that were the case, I'd continue to drive this car into the ground supposing your range needs stay less than what's available on your declining battery over time. When that goes upsidedown, you'd be done.. walk away.

I expect 10 years out of a car. Normally I buy new (not loan, not lease) and drive for 10. After that.. I'll keep driving the car but carefully weigh each and every expense needed to keep running as possibly being the final bullet for the car... If I have to spend more than 3 months of a 10 year averaged new car, then it's time for that new car. Your battery problem exceeds this rule, but I'd rationalize it as I have below.. and keep the car.

My goal during those 10 years is to spend minimum on required maintenance so that I reach 10 years, with a "used up car" not a "like new princess". Suppose A/C quits... is it critical? No... keep driving... Sunroof stops working at year 8, fix it? No... keep driving. It's just a car, not an investment, not a collector item.... in 10 years something better WILL BE catching my eye, or needs change..

GM: surprisingly good. Got the 10 and a couple more.
Subaru: excellent. Got 10 and still going.
VW: off my list of consideration forever, got the bullet in 6th year. Never again.
Tesla: we'll see!

You're at 5, and need another 5.

Think of it as cost averaging down on an already depreciated asset that you will never recover value from, even with the new battery installed. Your only value is what YOU drive out of it. So stretch your total loss by possibly another 5 years if you get repeat performance on the new battery, maybe longer?

In math terms, suppose you bought new for $30K
That's a $6K / year loss to date. You've paid $500/month for joy of electric. Not bad.

Repair for $2K, so now your capital into it is $32K.. and drive 5 more years.
That's a $3200 / year loss over 10 years. Means you'll have paid $266/month over that period. Much better!

If/when model 3 comes out... do the math again. Then burn the page.
Then do the irrational thing and buy the 3

 

[gaswalla]

Take the battery! If you end up getting the 3 a year or two later, you'll be better off anyways since it'll then be refined and glitches fixed.
I think you've hit the floor on the value of the Leaf. It'll still be worth 4k in a few years even after you destroy the replacement battery. That's a great deal - 2k complete cost for a car for 2-3 years of driving.
Even if you get a CPO Tesla, it will definitely depreciate 10-20k.

 

[gaswalla]

Oh, and your money spent initially on the Leaf is a sunk cost... It should not have any bearing on a rational decision process. (It will of course factor into an emotional decision)

 

[Eclectic]

Another vote for buying the Bolt. You get a car with a range equal to the CPO Tesla and far in excess of what you'd have even with a new battery in the Leaf and you'll have the car with the tax incentives in the next month or two. The Model 3 is vaporware at this point. No one knows when it will be out and how much it will really cost, or even what features it will have. The reality is that even if the Model 3 is everything Musk claims it will be, you don't want to wait two years just so you can be like the poor people who did the same for the Model X, only to get a car riddled with production flaws and design flops.

 

[sammyfan711]

Pay 2k and wait for the model 3 - I own a leaf as well and love it! You are acclimated to the limited range and made it work with your lifestyle - once the model 3 comes it will be such a dream to go more than 3 times the distance without charging!

I'm a fan of the bolt - I think it's a great car but it's no tesla. The whole self driving aspect is a game changer - wait for the best, forget the rest!

 

[Electroman]

No need to even think. Get a "new" Leaf for $2K.

I am surprised that Nissan decided to pony up $4K of the $6k new battery cost. I wonder how you managed that?

 

[Jayc]

Easy decision - get your leaf restored. Then your mind is at ease to make a well considered decision. Remember that with hasty decisions, there is an increased chance of getting it wrong.

You may even find that in the next few months you hear more updates on Model 3 progress that will make your ideal way forward clearer.

And bolts and volts are probably just distractions for you IMO otherwise you would have listed them as options in the first place.

 

[McRat]

Interesting. So the 10 year 150,000 mile California law doesn't affect Leafs?

 

[scottm]

Interesting. So the 10 year 150,000 mile California law doesn't affect Leafs?

What's this law say? .. apply it in this case.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Interesting. So the 10 year 150,000 mile California law doesn't affect Leafs?

Correct. It's PZEVs that have the requirement. The idea is to ensure that manufacturers can't claim ZEVs credits without a guarantee that the emissions control systems will work for a decent amount of time.

 

[Canuck]

If your Leaf is the SL version, I'd definitely get the new battery.