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My analysis: Tesla's Road to $700 Billion

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Clprenz, Feb 20, 2015.

  1. Clprenz

    Clprenz Member

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  2. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Just starting reading - I think I found a typo:
    Model 3 ASP is $5,000


    This is in the assumptions section. I think you're assuming Model 3 ASP of $50,000 :)
     
  3. Brunel

    Brunel Member

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    Interesting, but what about stationary battery market?
     
  4. Clprenz

    Clprenz Member

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    thanks! Should be fixed

    - - - Updated - - -

    I really wanted to stick to what we know remotely (ASP's, Margins, Market demand, production requirements, etc.) I do think that Stationary battery storage will be big, I'm not sure if it will be Tesla's "thing". My personal opinion is that they should stick to cars.
     
  5. Hvt1958

    Hvt1958 Member

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    Nice work!

    In Tilburg NL tesla is opening aside the assembly factory another 3 times larger factory of 58.000m2 and it is stated that it will be a mix between the factory in the USA and Assembly.

    You are probably not know with the Belgian labour laws which cause Genk to close?
    Belgium also cannot offer Tax benefits as the European Commission is investigating deals of governments offering incentives going beyond the agreed European agreements on such deals, Luxembourg a specially is under investigation but also Belgium and the Netherlands in a certain extent.

    Belgian employee advantages are still there and the government is liberal so I do not see a change in their policies.
    Don't bet on Genk, Ford will stop there alike a lot of multinational did in the past few years.

    So suggest you change your formats slightly
     
  6. Clprenz

    Clprenz Member

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    Thanks for the suggestion, I did find the labor issues online. Thought process on that: Tesla probably uses a lot more robots - even more by 2020 - probably a substantial amount compare to current factories in 2020. It would cost Tesla more to make cars there, but a lot saved in not building a new factory.
     
  7. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Member

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    Thanks for your time and effort in making this chart. I see that you are projecting 60k units this year with 100% increase to 120k units next year and another 100% increase in production in 2017? Although I like your optimism, I would rather estimate 50% annual growth, anything above that would of course be great. Although I don't think we'll hit 100% growth, anything could happen, including a meager 40% for next year.. thanks again for your contributions.
     
  8. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Minor suggestion: add a copyright market to each page.

    More substantively, I disagree that stationary storage can be viewed as an unimportant part of the path. Tesla is going to have access to a huge pile of LiIon cells that aren't useful in cars, either because they came from a used car pack and are somewhat degraded, or because they are new batteries that didn't test up to standards. Being able to repackage and sell these cells will have a huge margin in a market where all competitors have to buy their cells at market prices. My SWAG is that fully $100 B of the $700 B valuation will be related to stationary storage.
     
  9. Clprenz

    Clprenz Member

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    #9 Clprenz, Feb 21, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2015
    Production growth in 2016 is based on guidance of 2,000/week by end of 2015... So I'm estimating that it would grow from their. As far as 2017, that large increase would be from the easier/faster to produce Model 3. Page 4 details production growth by model, and my estimated ramp-up schedule (pretty aggressive).
     
  10. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Christian - thank you for going to the effort of creating this. From my own experience I am sure you find it a great combination of both intense enjoyment and supreme frustrations.

    As the saying goes, making predictions is very difficult. Especially about the future.

    I do have one pet peeve perhaps you could tackle, however. You take great liberties with significant digits; even more frustratingly, though, you mix them up. A good example is the table at the bottom of page three - Expansion vs. Cash. Under "Neded Cash" you responsibly limit yourself to 2 or, at most 3 significant digits.....and then belabor us with as many as fifteen!!!! under the "share dilution" column.

    There are only a few single-point sources I can ascribe as having made a significant, lasting effect on my life; one of them was where a Redoubtably Eminent Person looked straight at me (age 17 or so) and said "Young man, you cannot induce accuracy with precision."
     
  11. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    It is an interesting document, but I take the camp that I think started with one of DaveT's posts about how they can realistically self-fund the factories and continue a rapid growth expansion. All of this speculation was made before Elon ever said "millions of cars by 2025" or "700B market cap".

    I think Elon's comments have continued to reinforce that line of thinking of self-funding, given that he has said no capital raises in the immediate future (granted, you have your first capital raise in 2018, so at least you took that effort into account) and it was also said in a couple different ways about being massively positive cash flow and hitting points where they just don't have any money left to spend without being profitable. The latest comment there was 2020 they would be so massively cash positive that even with capex they would still be profitable, which is a rather bold statement. At the very least, you shouldn't expect any more capital raises after 2020 given that comment from Elon regarding cash flows.

    Honestly, at most, I can see one more capital raise happening. That will be a raise in order for them to build maybe 1 more factory (or two smaller ones) and then beyond that the company should be self-sustaining through amazing sales and profit margins.

    But what you did is still quite good and thank you for your perspective. We all see things slightly differently so the different views is always interesting to read about. Cheers!
     
  12. Clprenz

    Clprenz Member

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    #12 Clprenz, Feb 22, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2015
    Thanks for the advise! I have updated with no decimals (Since you can't raise .22 shares haha)


    I have also added a copyright to every page (Thanks Robert.Boston). Please let me know if you would like to use this analysis elsewhere.
    Thanks everyone for the feedback!
     
  13. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Can you clarify how you calculated ASPs? I am probably misunderstanding something. For 2017, you forecast 70/30% split for the S and X (105k ASP) and Model S (50k ASP). This implies and average ASP of 90k, not $78947? How did you get to 5 significant numbers? I agree with Audubon that adhering to standard practice here will make the report much clearer.
     
  14. Clprenz

    Clprenz Member

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    #14 Clprenz, Feb 26, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2015
    You found an Error! I changed my method for calculating the ASP's while writing the report. The ASP is calculated from (Production ramp, Vehicle type ASP) It's based on how many cars of each type can be created.
    I decided to not do my numbers in standard accounting format - purely for aesthetics.

    Updates:
    - Saab Factory pricing is now confirmed from Saab Directly
    - Updated Genk Factory price, to reflect the Saab price
    - Updated Saab Factory capacity (Based on updated plant schematics)
    - Capacity increase affects all other numbers past 2018
     

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