My Dream: 60, 80, and 100

[Seattle Tom]

Like everyone, I'm waiting for the big announcements that are upcoming (100D, software V8.0 with Autopilot enhancements, and Model 3 part two). But. I really hope the battery announcement changes the game in a big way.

I hope Tesla changes their configuration options to three: a 100D, a 60D that is software updatable to 80D, AND an 80D that is software upgradeable to 100D. Selfishly, this would enable me to get an MX in the 80D configuration and use it with no range anxiety (I'd guesstimate 243-245 miles max range), with every intention of updating to the 100D in a year or two for $10K. Which will then give me some additional range (guessing 280-282 miles max range) plus a 1 second faster 0 to 60 mph boost.

Admittedly, I think this is worse for Tesla than for me. I'm paying less for a car up front that costs them the same to make, but the mental gymnastics of buying a $90K car instead of a $100K car are an easier sell (for the wife especially!).

This coupled with Autopilot 2.0 hardware for future state L3 autonomous driving would be my dream. Well, I'll sleep tight dreaming of this at least.

 

[systemcrashed]

This idea is not far from where I suspect things will be after the Gigafactory is fully operational. Battery pack cost will come down, but in order to keep Model X prices from dropping, you may very well "get more than you pay for" , will be good for tesla and for owners.

 

[shokunin]

IMO, this whole software limited battery is to provide an entry level price point while minimizing the number of pack configurations that need to be built and provide buyers with a sense of "upgradability" when purchasing a 60kw battery.

Judging by the ton of new 70/75's I see on the street, the 90kw packs are not differentiated enough from the 75 packs to justify the extra $12K+ cash outlay for an extra 20 miles on the X.

The $10K upgrade at later date doesn't make financial sense to me. After 2 years and having your car depreciate 35% why pay full retail $10K when the pack itself has also depreciated 35%. It's like my model S 40. after 3 years, it would be almost cheaper for me to sell my 40 and buy a used S85 than to pay $13K to up the 40 to 60 and pay for supercharger access.

 

[systemcrashed]

IMO, this whole software limited battery is to provide an entry level price point while minimizing the number of pack configurations that need to be built and provide buyers with a sense of "upgradability" when purchasing a 60kw battery.

Judging by the ton of new 70/75's I see on the street, the 90kw packs are not differentiated enough from the 75 packs to justify the extra $12K+ cash outlay for an extra 20 miles on the X.

The $10K upgrade at later date doesn't make financial sense to me. After 2 years and having your car depreciate 35% why pay full retail $10K when the pack itself has also depreciated 35%. It's like my model S 40. after 3 years, it would be cheaper for me to sell my 40 and buy an S85 than to pay $13K to up the 40 to 60 and pay for supercharger access.

The 10k upgrade will be great when the buyer is looking for a 75 not the 60 you paid for, you can then negotiate the upgrade capability as part of your resale value.

 

[shokunin]

The 10k upgrade will be great when the buyer is looking for a 75 not the 60 you paid for, you can then negotiate the upgrade capability as part of your resale value.

That scenario is actually worse for resale. The price of a used true 75 is likely to be less than the price of a used 60 + $10K upgrade fee. The 75kw will have already depreciated. Paying the full $10K retail will only lower the negotiating price of the 60 even lower.

 

[systemcrashed]

That scenario is actually worse for resale. The price of a used true 75 is likely to be less than the price of a used 60 + $10K upgrade fee. The 75kw will have already depreciated. Paying the full $10K retail will only lower the negotiating price of the 60 even lower.

The 60 will be worth the same to Tesla, not saying they would pay you the same for a trade-in as a 75 but they would be able to offer a very competitive trade value, since essentially they will be able to sell it as a 75 will little to no cost.

 

[shokunin]

From the stories i've heard, "competitive trade value" and Tesla are usually mutually exclusive. A friend who traded his in said they simply quoted him wholesale off to a third party. I doubt they would even spend the time to unlock the battery and rebadge the car.

 

[systemcrashed]

From the stories i've heard, "competitive trade value" and Tesla are usually mutually exclusive. A friend who traded his in said they simply quoted him wholesale off to a third party. I doubt they would even spend the time to unlock the battery and rebadge the car.

I have heard of that for non Tesla trades, but not for a Tesla owner trading up to another Tesla. It remains to be seen what they offer on "unlockable" cars, it is too soon since they have only been out for a few months.