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My Experience With EAP Suggests Not Only Won't FSD Go Up In Price, It's Going To Go Down

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This completely ignores the video, and the text next to the video.

Neither of those are describing an L2 system.

The video to me is a promise.


On the page during the buying process where you purchase FSD- there is no video. Just a little flash demo of the sensor ranges.

Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

That's the promise. A specific list of features, all of which already are rolled out except autosteer on city streets, and with no promise of them ever exceeding L2.

You appear to be talking about a separate marketing page not used during the actual sales process.

It's be like complaining you need a refund on your axe body spray because it didn't make women flock to you like in the commercial.
 
On the page during the buying process where you purchase FSD- there is no video. Just a little flash demo of the sensor ranges.

Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

That's the promise. A specific list of features, all of which already are rolled out except autosteer on city streets, and with no promise of them ever exceeding L2.

You appear to be talking about a separate marketing page not used during the actual sales process.

It's be like complaining you need a refund on your axe body spray because it didn't make women flock to you like in the commercial.

Ha, more like complaining that the movie isn't anything like the trailer.

Anyways the video I'm talking about shows up after you click the + next to learn about autopilot. It's very much a page used in the actual sales process, and not some hidden page left over from eons ago.

Go here
Model 3 | Tesla

Then scroll down to autopilot
Then click the + button to learn more, and watch the video.

The video is hands free driving in the city, and is reflective of what the meaning is of Full Self Driving. So there is no reason to think that what it shows isn't exactly what's being promised.
 
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They changed it to "dependent on achieving" from "dependent on extensive software validation". I feel like it is no longer promised unless they achieve it with the existing hardware. Maybe I'm cynical though. :p

Yeah, I remember that now.

Anyways I don't really consider it cynical that Tesla won't achieve anything beyond L2 with the existing hardware. I think that's just being realistic given all the challenges and the lack of redundancy. But, to me there is a promise that they'll try to achieve much more than the milestones currently set for it under the order page.

They changed various wording, but I don't agree at all that the goal itself has changed.

The goal was FSD, and the goal remains FSD.

FSD is a binary thing. You can't have an L2 system, and claim its FSD. You certainly wouldn't need to have a disclaimer saying "dependent on achieving" for L2.
 
Yeah, I remember that now.

Anyways I don't really consider it cynical that Tesla won't achieve anything beyond L2 with the existing hardware. I think that's just being realistic given all the challenges and the lack of redundancy. But, to me there is a promise that they'll try to achieve much more than the milestones currently set for it under the order page.

They changed various wording, but I don't agree at all that the goal itself has changed.

The goal was FSD, and the goal remains FSD.

FSD is a binary thing. You can't have an L2 system, and claim its FSD. You certainly wouldn't need to have a disclaimer saying "dependent on achieving" for L2.
Of course FSD is everyone’s goal. I have no doubt that they’re going to try very hard. The only question is, what happens if they can’t deliver it with the existing hardware?
It depends what you were promised when you ordered.
 
. So there is no reason to think that what it shows isn't exactly what's being promised.



Other than on the actual purchase page they promise nothing of the sort.

Here's what you're shown as actually buying on the actual page you buy it

Note there's no video- nor any link to one. Just a specific list of features you're actually buying when you check that Select Option button.


From:
Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

oct2020fsd.jpg
 
Nobody in their right mind should be telling others how to spend their own money. (let alone denigrated for it)

You can spend your money however you like, but it doesn’t change my personal opinion of it being crazy - in the context of buying into FSD as a future investment.

IMHO current functionality isn’t worth the price (Others may think it is) and I quite frankly don’t believe the promises and hype. Even naming it FSD is a joke. It’s not even close.
 
Of course FSD is everyone’s goal. I have no doubt that they’re going to try very hard. The only question is, what happens if they can’t deliver it with the existing hardware?
It depends what you were promised when you ordered.

Every year I've been expecting Tesla to have to face the music. It's been 5 years since the introduction of this fantasy feature, and still no signs of the repercussions of selling it in the US.

I think that largely has to do with the fact that the original promise hasn't really changed, and the HW (for FSD owners) hasn't really changed either. We only see the changes because we looking it at through a microscope, and looking at the previous wordings.

As soon as there is new sensor hardware (like rear corner radar) people will freak out. But, I fully expect Tesla to placate them by doing things like X months of free FSD if they buy a new vehicle. They'll try to make owning FSD disappear, and force people into subscription models.

I don't think Tesla will ever have to face the music at least not in the US.

Other countries do have stronger consumer protection laws, and it will be interesting to see what happens in those countries.
 
Every year I've been expecting Tesla to have to face the music. It's been 5 years since the introduction of this fantasy feature, and still no signs of the repercussions of selling it in the US.

I think that largely has to do with the fact that the original promise hasn't really changed, and the HW (for FSD owners) hasn't really changed either. We only see the changes because we looking it at through a microscope, and looking at the previous wordings.

As soon as there is new sensor hardware (like rear corner radar) people will freak out. But, I fully expect Tesla to placate them by doing things like X months of free FSD if they buy a new vehicle. They'll try to make owning FSD disappear, and force people into subscription models.

I don't think Tesla will ever have to face the music at least not in the US.

Other countries do have stronger consumer protection laws, and it will be interesting to see what happens in those countries.
Yeah, as far as I know even people who leased FSD for 3 years and got literally nothing have received no compensation. It's surprising to me too.
I don't think the changes are minuscule at all. The overall goal is the same but what is actually promised is very different.
I think true FSD probably makes more sense as a per-mile subscription due to liability.
 
Every year I've been expecting Tesla to have to face the music. It's been 5 years since the introduction of this fantasy feature, and still no signs of the repercussions of selling it in the US.
.


Any chance I can borrow your time machine?

I mainly ask because FSD went on sale less than 4 years ago (though we're getting close to 4 now)



I think that largely has to do with the fact that the original promise hasn't really changed

Except, as you've been shown repeated on the FSD purchase page, it changed tremendously in March 2019.

Every promised FSD feature since then, other than autosteer on city streets, is already delivered to buyers.

It's only the early adopters (who will be an increasingly small % of buyers) still "owed" a lot more based on what was promised at time of purchase.


, and the HW (for FSD owners) hasn't really changed either

Well, the driving computer sure has.

Though it'll not be nearly as obvious the benefits of it till the re-write goes wide release (allegedly later this year)
 
Other than on the actual purchase page they promise nothing of the sort.

Here's what you're shown as actually buying on the actual page you buy it

Note there's no video- nor any link to one. Just a specific list of features you're actually buying when you check that Select Option button.


From:
Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

View attachment 594849

I can't speak for anyone else, but before I order anything I look at the actual product page. It's on the product page that it describes Autopilot along with FSD. It's on that page that Tesla shows the video of hands free driving. All the video does is confirm that FSD really means full self driving. Next to that video is the "All Tesla vehicles have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at a safety level we believe will be at least twice as good as the average human driver." text.

At this point in the process what do I expect? I expect just what it says, and what the video shows. The level of safety is the only one I'm left wondering about since it uses the soft "we believe" word choice.

So I click the order page on the bottom to get me to the order page which you're fond of.

The disclaimers is really what we have to pay attention to if we care not about what the car can do today, but what the car can do long term.

The first one is a warning that the price for FSD will likely increase over time with new feature releases. It's a nice use of fear to induce someone to buy.

The second one says the features currently active are L2, and to get beyond L2 (as in autonomous) requires "achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers a demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions".

That's going to throw me a bit because the other page only said 2X which isn't far in excess, and if I'm European I might click away to a VW/Audi/Porsche offering because I know regulatory is going to be a massive hurdle in my country. I'm an American though so the regulatory disclaimer doesn't phase me one bit.

Why do I so thoroughly reject the milestones under FSD?

Because only one of them is met (in the US), and yet Tesla makes it look like they have been met. That's extremely dangerous because they have customers like you convinced that they're not promising anything more, and the OP's experience with it has them convinced that FSD won't go up in price.

Someone like me will see that they watered down the milestone, but I won't see it as promising less. Instead its simplifying things in a methodical process towards a goal like what's been happening with Traffic Light and Stop Sign control. It's extremely watered down, but at least it does what it says. In fact Traffic Light and Stop Sign control is the only thing I give a passing grade on. Not because it's all that useful yet.

Here is my pass/fail grading of what's been delivered. Anything that performs worse than an average driver is a failure.

NoA: Fail
Auto Lane Change: Fail
Auto Park: Fail
Summon: Fail
Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: Pass (limited testing, but its proven more reliable than all the other stuff so far)

The reason why 4 out of 5 of them suck is they require development well beyond what is currently there.
 
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I can't speak for anyone else, but before I order anything I look at the actual product page. It's on the product page that it describes Autopilot along with FSD. It's on that page that Tesla shows the video of hands free driving.

But at no point claims the thing they're selling today does that.

Again it's like you getting mad and demanding a refund for your Axe Body Spray because unlike the commercial 20 hot girls didn't throw themselves at you when you bought it.


All the video does is confirm that FSD really means full self driving. Next to that video is the "All Tesla vehicles have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at a safety level we believe will be at least twice as good as the average human driver." text.

"in the future"

"we believe"


those are hopes- not legally binding promises.


At this point in the process what do I expect? I expect just what it says

What it says when it lists the actual specific things you are buying, on the page you actually buy them, is what you should expect.

If you get more, great- but you shouldn't count on it.


Why do I so thoroughly reject the milestones under FSD? Because only one of them is met (in the US), and yet Tesla makes it look like they have been met.

Not entirely sure what you're talking about here.

Every single feature on that for-sale page today, other than the last one (autosteer on city streets) is in production right now.

And none are exclusive to the US either.


Here is my pass/fail grading of what's been delivered. Anything that performs worse than an average driver is a failure.

NoA: Fail
Auto Lane Change: Fail
Auto Park: Fail
Summon: Fail
Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: Pass (limited testing, but its proven more reliable than all the other stuff so far)

The reason why 4 out of 5 of them suck is they require development well beyond what is currently there.


Weird, because in roughly 20,000 miles of driving with these features NoA has been just fine.... Auto lane change works fine as well- occasionally it makes choices I personally wouldn't, but that's driving style, not a safety issue.

I don't use autopark other than as a demo, because it's annoyingly slow- but it does do what it says on the label (and I expect it to be among the first very significantly improved features in the FSD re-write since currently it's still using sonar-only sensors and 2016 code)

Summon- the original one- works perfectly- how can it not it's just moving forward and backward? The advanced one they need to significantly increase the range to make it more than a party trick, but the few times I've been able to park close enough it too has worked fine.... indeed a couple of times I got a good enough spot at work it was able to pull out and pull around to the covered area in front of the building to keep me out of the rain, which was nice.


But again- the FSD page says it has these features. Which it does.

Not "It has these features and they work to YOUR personal satisfaction too"
 
Any chance I can borrow your time machine?

I mainly ask because FSD went on sale less than 4 years ago (though we're getting close to 4 now)

Sadly I don't have a time machine.

What happened was everything made sense and then suddenly I was rudely thrown out of the timeline I was in to the dumbest of all timelines. I keep adding 2016 to the dumb timeline, but it wasn't until 2017 that the dumb timeline really started (2016 was simply when the universe kicked me). So yeah you are correct in that it's been 4 years (roughly) and not 5 years like I stated.

As to the FSD order page I'm not sure why you're so obsessed with that page. There are other pages people look at on the TMC site, and there is Elons twitter account they use to make buying decisions. Elon hasn't told anyone the goal has changed.

I specifically pointed out that for FSD buyers the HW hasn't really changed because they got the HW3 upgrade. So the mass majority of FSD owners have exactly the same hardware (HW3 computer, the same radar, the same camera sensors, etc). It doesn't make any sense to treat them differently based on what the order page said at the time of the order.
 
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As to the FSD order page I'm not sure why you're so obsessed with that page.

You don't understand why the actual page that tells you specifically what you're buying, at the moment you choose to buy it, is the relevant one regarding what you are legally owed?

Not sure I can help much further then.


I specifically pointed out that for FSD buyers the HW hasn't really changed because they got the HW3 upgrade. So the mass majority of FSD owners have exactly the same hardware (HW3 computer, the same radar, the same camera sensors, etc)

Just to be pedantic, S/X owners for the first couple years since FSD existed have different radar and cameras technically.

I don't expect it to ever matter much (though apparently it did for a little while as it took longer to get HW3 working right with them per info from Green) but it's 2 specific differences.



. It doesn't make any sense to treat them differently based on what the order page said at the time of the order.

You don't think treating people differently based on what you actually sold them makes sense?

That's kinda weird.

More seriously though, you seem to be reading the point backward.

It's not that Tesla will "deny" post-March-19 buyers the magic L5 FSD once they have it.

It's that they'll be obligated only to refund the pre-march-19 buyers when they find the sensor suite isn't capable of delivering it.

Because the pre-3/19 buyers will have bought something specific Tesla can't deliver.

The post 3/19 buyers will have received everything promised to them when they bought since that's a much smaller, very specific, list of features.
 
As to the FSD order page I'm not sure why you're so obsessed with that page. There are other pages people look at on the TMC site, and there is Elons twitter account they use to make buying decisions. Elon hasn't told anyone the goal has changed.
I agree that Tesla should be held to the page that is still live and is the first search result of EVERY major search engine for search query "Tesla autopilot".
Specifically, Autopilot
 
I agree that Tesla should be held to the page that is still live and is the first search result of EVERY major search engine for search query "Tesla autopilot".
Specifically, Autopilot
"dependent on achieving" is not a promise.
I specifically pointed out that for FSD buyers the HW hasn't really changed because they got the HW3 upgrade. So the mass majority of FSD owners have exactly the same hardware (HW3 computer, the same radar, the same camera sensors, etc). It doesn't make any sense to treat them differently based on what the order page said at the time of the order.
Obviously everyone with HW3 will get the same software because that is what they have achieved. But what if they need HW4 to achieve true FSD?
I contend that people who ordered "Autosteer on city streets" are unlikely to get any compensation since that feature will be delivered and anything else is "dependent on achieving."
 
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I agree that Tesla should be held to the page that is still live and is the first search result of EVERY major search engine for search query "Tesla autopilot".
Specifically, Autopilot

To clarify the page I'm talking about, and the Autopilot page are two entirely different things.

The page I'm talking about is shown when the user clicks learn more about autopilot on the product page of the Model 3 (it's also on other ones like the Model S).

The page you're talking about used to be linked from the Tesla website itself, but is only now available via a google search.
 
To clarify the page I'm talking about, and the Autopilot page are two entirely different things.

The page I'm talking about is shown when the user clicks learn more about autopilot on the product page of the Model 3 (it's also on other ones like the Model S).

The page you're talking about used to be linked from the Tesla website itself, but is only now available via a google search.
And I am saying that the original Autopilot landing page has the most broad/generous definition of FSD, and Tesla should be held to that from a point of view of deliverables.